Soccer fans can look forward to four World Cup Round of 16 games this weekend. Canada and Morocco will get the action underway when they clash in Texas this afternoon.
Kylian Mbappé, Michael Olise, and Ousmane Dembélé will then try to lead France to victory over Paraguay in Philadelphia (5 p.m. ET, FOX). There are two games taking place tomorrow: Brazil vs. Norway at MetLife Stadium (4 p.m. ET, FOX), followed by Mexico vs. England at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City (8 p.m. ET, FOX).
Prediction markets give Canada an 18% chance of beating Morocco in regulation time today. Canada is priced at 28% to advance to the quarterfinals at Morocco’s expense, a market that also includes extra time and penalties, if necessary.
Here’s how markets are pricing the Canada vs. Morocco matchup on Kalshi and Polymarket. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET on FOX from NRG Stadium in Houston.
Kalshi and Polymarket are offering promos for these games. Get $10 on Kalshi with code RATE, or choose Polymarket for a $50 bonus on your first $20 deposit. Code RATE also applies.
Canada vs. Morocco, 1 p.m. ET
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Canada vs. Morocco (*trading available in 49 states)
Prediction markets expect Morocco to secure a narrow win against Canada this afternoon. The Atlas Lions are priced at 56% to win the game in regulation time, but they’re only trading at 29% to cover a 1.5-goal spread.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Canada) | 28% | 28% |
| To Advance (Morocco) | 73% | 72% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Canada) | 17% | 18% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 29% | 28% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Morocco) | 56% | 56% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Canada +1.5) | 73% | 72% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Morocco -1.5) | 28% | 29% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 43% | 44% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 58% | 57% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 50% | 51% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 51% | 50% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Canada) | 31% | 30% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 9% | 10% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Morocco) | 63% | 63% |
How Canada vs. Morocco breaks down
Morocco will aim to extend its unbeaten streak to 34 games when it takes on Canada in the World Cup Round of 16. This is now familiar territory for the Atlas Lions, who defied the odds to reach the semifinals of the 2022 World Cup. They’ve arguably improved in the ensuing years, and they have excelled at this tournament.
Their campaign began with an impressive 1-1 draw against Brazil. Morocco then secured back-to-back wins against Scotland and Haiti, which teed up a Round of 32 clash with the Netherlands. The game finished 1-1 after extra time, and Morocco won the subsequent penalty shootout. It’s now up to No. 6 in the FIFA world rankings, 24 places above Canada.
The Canadians could only finish second in their group after losing to Switzerland on Matchday 3. They bounced back with a 1-0 victory over South Africa in the Round of 32, courtesy of Stephen Eustáquio’s late strike. Captain Alphonso Davies finally returned from injury in that game, which gives Canada a huge boost.
However, traders feel that this could be the end of the road for the CanMNT. Jesse Marsch’s men are priced at just 28% to advance to the quarterfinals, which reflects a presumed gulf in quality between these teams. One interesting option could be both teams to score, as the Canadians have found the back of the net in all of their games so far at this tournament. It’s trading at 51% with Polymarket.
More World Cup odds for this weekend’s matches
There are three more World Cup matchups taking place this weekend. We’ve explored how Kalshi and Polymarket are pricing them.
Paraguay vs. France, 5 p.m. ET on Saturday
Prediction markets expect France to sweep Paraguay aside this evening. Les Bleus are the clear favorites to win the 2026 World Cup, and they should have too much firepower for Paraguay to handle.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Paraguay vs. France (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Paraguay) | 8% | 8% |
| To Advance (France) | 93% | 92% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Paraguay) | 5% | 5% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 13% | 13% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (France) | 84% | 84% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Paraguay +1.5) | 40% | 39% |
| Regulation Time Spread (France -1.5) | 61% | 62% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 60% | 60% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 41% | 41% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 39% | 39% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 62% | 62% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Paraguay) | 14% | 12% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 4.2% | 5% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (France) | 84% | 84% |
France is priced at 92% to advance to the quarterfinals and 84% to win this game in regulation time. You can unlock more value by backing France to cover a 1.5-goal spread, which is priced at 61% with Polymarket. That could be popular, as Les Bleus have won all of their 2026 World Cup games by a margin of at least two goals.
They began with a 3-1 win against Senegal, before beating Iraq 3-0 and Norway 4-1. France then earned a 3-0 victory over Sweden in the Round of 32. Mbappé has scored six goals in four games at this tournament, while Dembélé has four goals and Olise has five assists. They’re all in fine form right now, so France should have enough firepower to beat Paraguay.
La Albirroja began their campaign with a heavy 4-1 defeat to the USA, but they bounced back by beating Türkiye and drawing with Australia. They were heavy underdogs for their Round of 32 game against Germany, but they battled to a 1-1 draw and won the subsequent penalty shootout.
Can lightning strike twice? Traders don’t think so, as they only give Paraguay a 5% chance of winning this game in regulation time. Mbappé is a far better finisher than any of Germany’s forwards, and he’s priced at 68% with Kalshi to score in this game. Olise is priced at 37% to provide another assist.
Brazil vs. Norway, 4 p.m. ET on Sunday
This promises to be an entertaining game between two high-scoring teams. It will also pit two fierce rivals against one another: Man City’s Erling Haaland and Arsenal’s Gabriel Magalhães.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Brazil vs. Norway (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Brazil) | 68% | 66% |
| To Advance (Norway) | 33% | 34% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Brazil) | 54% | 54% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 27% | 26% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Norway) | 21% | 21% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Brazil -1.5) | 30% | 30% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Norway +1.5) | 71% | 71% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 54% | 56% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 47% | 45% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 59% | 60% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 42% | 41% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Brazil) | 60% | 60% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 5% | 3% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Norway) | 37% | 39% |
Over 2.5 goals has paid off in all four of Norway’s games so far. The Norwegians beat Iraq 4-1 and Senegal 3-2, before losing 4-1 to France. They rested several key players in that game, so the likes of Haaland and Martin Ødegaard were fresh to face Ivory Coast in the Round of 32. Haaland scored the winning goal in a 2-1 victory, taking his tally to five goals in three games at this tournament.
He will now resume his rivalry with Gabriel. They’ve engaged in several titanic battles as City and Arsenal have fought for the Premier League title in recent years. Haaland has scored six goals in 11 games against Arsenal, so it will be fascinating to see if he can replicate that form for Norway.
Over 2.5 goals has also paid off in Brazil’s last three games: a 3-0 win against Scotland, a 3-0 win against Haiti, and a 2-1 victory over Japan in the Round of 32. Vinícius Júnior was quiet in that game, but he has scored four goals at this tournament, and he could cause plenty of problems for this leaky Norwegian defense.
Kalshi is set at 56% on over 2.5 goals, while both teams to score is trading at 59% with Polymarket. Both markets could prove popular. These teams are stacked with elite forwards, but Brazil looks stronger in defense and midfield, so the Samba Boys are priced at 66% with Kalshi to advance and 54% to win in regulation time.
Mexico vs. England, 8 p.m. ET on Sunday
Kalshi traders view this game as close to a coin flip, as they give Mexico a 48% chance of advancing to the next round, with England at 52%. Polymarket traders give England a slight edge, but they’re expecting a tight, cagey game.
Kalshi vs. Polymarket odds on Mexico vs. England (*trading available in 49 states)
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| To Advance (Mexico) | 47% | 48% |
| To Advance (England) | 54% | 52% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Mexico) | 31% | 32% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (Draw) | 31% | 30% |
| Regulation Time Moneyline (England) | 40% | 39% |
| Regulation Time Spread (Mexico +1.5) | 83% | 83% |
| Regulation Time Spread (England -1.5) | 18% | 18% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 40% | 41% |
| Regulation Time Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 61% | 60% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 49% | 50% |
| Regulation Time Both Teams to Score (No) | 52% | 51% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Mexico) | 45% | 44% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (Neither) | 10% | 12% |
| Regulation Time First Team to Score (England) | 48% | 46% |
Mexico extended its unbeaten run to 12 games by beating Ecuador 2-0 in the World Cup Round of 32. El Tri have only conceded two goals during that stretch. They’ve won all four of their games so far at this tournament, without letting in a single goal, so the players are surging with momentum right now.
This game will take place in Mexico City, which is 7,350 feet above sea level. England manager Thomas Tuchel claims this puts his team at a huge disadvantage, as the Three Lions won’t have time to adjust, and they aren’t allowed to arrive just before the game. They’ll also need to deal with a hostile crowd at Estadio Azteca, where Mexico hasn’t lost since 2013.
However, England is still the favorite to win in regulation time, as it has superior players in almost every department. If the likes of Harry Kane, Declan Rice, and Jude Bellingham are at their best, they can beat any team in the world. Kane has scored five times at this tournament, and he’s priced at 41% with Kalshi to find the back of the net on Sunday.
England is also unbeaten in 12 competitive matches since Tuchel took the reins, so it’s easy to see why traders expect such a close game. Mexico’s defensive record is superb, but El Tri haven’t faced a striker like Kane yet at this tournament. England’s defense has been shambolic at times during this World Cup, so both teams to score could be an interesting contrarian play at 48% with Polymarket.
Round of 16 continues on Monday
The World Cup Round of 16 continues with two eagerly anticipated games on Monday:
- Portugal vs. Spain
- USA vs. Belgium
We’ll preview both games, with the latest odds, on Monday. For live World Cup pricing on Kalshi and Polymarket, plus all current sign-up offers, see our prediction markets promos. New users can enter promo code RATE for a $10 Kalshi bonus (after $10 in trades) or a $50 Polymarket bonus (deposit $20).
