Polymarket UFC Fight Night Props: $25 Bonus With Code RATE
Use Polymarket promo code RATE to claim a $25 trading bonus with a $10 deposit, then trade Moicano vs. Nolan and UFC Fight Night props.
Renato Moicano and Tom Nolan meet in the lightweight main event of UFC Fight Night on Saturday, October 31, from the Meta Apex in Las Vegas. The main card starts at 8 p.m. ET and streams on Paramount+.
The matchup looks like a coin flip. Moicano (21-7-1) is a former title challenger who has the third-most rear-naked choke finishes in UFC history. Nolan (11-1) is the 26-year-old Australian riding a five-fight win streak into his first UFC main event.
Fight props let you trade on the winner and other outcomes before the cards start. New users can enter the Polymarket promo code RATE to claim a $25 bonus.
How to claim the Polymarket $25 bonus for UFC Fight Night
It’s an easy process to get into today’s UFC Fight Night on the order book. Polymarket has a promotional offer for new users where they give a $25 trading bonus to help grow your initial bankroll. Here is how you can secure the offer before the fight starts:
Register for an account: Navigate to Polymarket and create a new account, making sure to enter the promo code RATE during the sign-up process.
Verify your identity: Because Polymarket is federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), all users must complete a standard KYC (Know Your Customer) identity verification.
Fund your wallet: Make your initial deposit of at least $10 to trigger the promotional offer.
Trade the UFC markets: Buy any amount of cumulative event contracts. You can take a position on UFC Fight Night or explore other active markets.
Receive your bonus: As soon as you deposit $10, Polymarket will automatically credit a $25 trading bonus to your account.
The offer is open to new users who meet the requirements and are located in an eligible state. Check out our complete Polymarket review for full details.
Polymarket market snapshot for UFC Fight Night
Main event: Moicano vs. Nolan
Date: October 31, 2026
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Broadcast: Paramount+
Winner market: Moicano (54%), Nolan (47%)
Knockout odds on Polymarket for UFC Fight Night
Polymarket traders see Jacobe Smith as the likeliest knockout artist on Saturday's top billing, pricing him at 44%. Randy Brown sits at 22%, Tom Nolan at 30% and Renato Moicano at just 13%.
Smith's price fits his record. The 13-0 welterweight has won all four UFC fights by stoppage, three of them by knockout. He stepped in on short notice for the co-main event days after finishing Bruce Whitehead. Brown (20-8) arrives on a two-fight skid, including a knee knockout loss to Gabriel Bonfim. He still has a 6-inch reach edge and a highlight knockout of Nicolas Dalby.
In the main event, Nolan has won five straight and finished Charlie Campbell and Victor Martinez, though his latest win came by decision over Farès Ziam. Moicano's 13% reflects how he wins. He submitted Chris Duncan in the second round in April and has a strong grappling reputation.
Check the market rules and current prices before you trade, since they can move before the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Other UFC Fight Night props to trade on Polymarket
| Outcome | Polymarket probabilities | Example of winning trade |
|---|---|---|
| Renato Moicano by submission | 35% | $100 > $286 |
| Renato Moicano by decision | 13% | $100 > $769 |
| Tom Nolan by submission | 9% | $100 > $1,111 |
| Tom Nolan by decision | 12% | $100 > $833 |
| Jacobe Smith by submission | 29% | $100 > $345 |
| Jacobe Smith by decision | 21% | $100 > $476 |
| Randy Brown by submission | 8% | $100 > $1,150 |
| Randy Brown by decision | 18% | $100 > $556 |
The grappling prices stand out in Saturday's main event. Renato Moicano's submission price is 35%, the highest on the board. He choked out Chris Duncan in the second round in April, and Beneil Dariush took him down five times in his last loss. Tom Nolan sits at 9% by submission and 12% by decision. He has won five straight, but he is headlining for the first time and has never fought five rounds.
The co-main event has a sharper contrast. Jacobe Smith (13-0) is priced at 29% by submission and 21% by decision. He has finished all four UFC fights, including a rear-naked choke of Niko Price. Randy Brown is at 8% by submission and 18% by decision. He has lost two straight and went the distance with Kevin Holland in April.
Trading on UFC Fight Night at Polymarket
Polymarket is a prediction market rather than a traditional sportsbook. Instead of accepting a fixed line from the house, you buy and sell contracts on fight outcomes with other traders.
Prices come from live trading activity, so they reflect what the crowd thinks and shift as the card gets closer. They can swing sharply once Moicano and Nolan are in the cage. You can sell your shares during the fight to lock in a gain or limit a loss, so you don't have to wait for the final decision.
Shares trade between $0.01 and $0.99. A correct pick pays $1.00 and a wrong one pays $0. For example, if you buy a Nolan win at $0.47 and he wins, the share pays $1.00. That is a $0.53 gain per share before any fees.
Prices show the market's view of each fighter's chances, but they don't guarantee a result. A single knockdown, an injury or a late takedown can send a price down fast. Losing shares finish at zero, so manage your bankroll carefully and only trade money you can afford to lose.
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