TodayEvery figure as of Oct 15, 5:22 PM ET

Constructed

The market-implied chance that Democrats control the Senate in the next Congress. Democrats need 51 seats, because the vice president, a Republican, breaks 50–50 ties. Each contract's own rules decide independents, runoffs and ties.

Equal-weight average of two venues, each priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask.
Kalshi 62.3% (constructed). Kalshi has no single Senate-control contract, so we add its two balance-of-power contracts in which Democrats win the Senate: D House + D Senate (61.5¢) and R House + D Senate (0.75¢).
Polymarket 63.5%, from its Senate-control contract.
Average: 62.9%, shown as 63%.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 63% chance of winning control of the Senate” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-15 (142 rows). Daily closing average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket. The last point is today's 5:22 PM observation. Full history (CSV)

The market-implied chance that Democrats win a House majority (218 seats) in the 2026 election, under each contract's settlement rules.

Equal-weight average of two venues' House-control contracts, each priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask: Kalshi 90.15% and Polymarket 90.5%. Average: 90.3%, shown as 90%.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 90% chance of winning the House” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-15 (142 rows). Kalshi daily close. The 7-day change for the House is measured on Kalshi alone. Full history (CSV)

Last trade

The chance the Federal Reserve raises its target range by a quarter point at the Oct. 27–28 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Settles on the Fed’s official statement.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (27.5%) and Polymarket (27.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets put the chance of a Fed rate hike on Oct. 28 at 28%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-15 (142 rows). Kalshi daily close. The last point is the 5:22 PM observation. Full history (CSV)

The market-implied chance the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. American odds equivalent: +659, before fees.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (13.5%), Polymarket (12.55%) and Polymarket US (13.5%). Each venue’s price is the midpoint of its bid and ask where our feed has both, otherwise its last trade; the team table also shows Polymarket’s price to buy.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask, else last trade. Cited as: “Prediction markets give the San Francisco 49ers a 13% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI” (average of Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-15 (142 rows). Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate. Full history (CSV)

Last trade

The chance the Democratic nominee wins the presidential election in November 2028.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (58.5%) and Polymarket (63.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 61% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance JD Vance is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (42.5%) and Polymarket (48.5%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give JD Vance a 46% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

The chance Republicans keep both the House and the Senate.

Average of Kalshi's R House + R Senate contract (9.95¢) and Polymarket's matching contract (8.5¢). These two contracts ask the same question, so this is a like-for-like comparison.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Markets give Republicans a 9% chance of keeping both chambers” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venue

The same question asked a different way: the chance the target range’s upper bound is above today’s after the October meeting.

Kalshi only. Shown to compare with Kalshi’s decision contract.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Single venue

The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Alaska (Peltola (D) vs. Sullivan (R)).

Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 75% chance in the Alaska Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Single venue

The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Michigan (El-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R)).

Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 69% chance in the Michigan Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

The market-implied chance the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. American odds equivalent: +770, before fees.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (11.5%), Polymarket (11.50%) and Polymarket US (11.5%). Each venue’s price is the midpoint of its bid and ask where our feed has both, otherwise its last trade; the team table also shows Polymarket’s price to buy.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask, else last trade. Cited as: “Prediction markets give the Buffalo Bills a 12% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI” (average of Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-15 (142 rows). Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate. Full history (CSV)

The market-implied chance the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. American odds equivalent: +1108, before fees.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (8.5%), Polymarket (7.85%) and Polymarket US (8.5%). Each venue’s price is the midpoint of its bid and ask where our feed has both, otherwise its last trade; the team table also shows Polymarket’s price to buy.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask, else last trade. Cited as: “Prediction markets give the Baltimore Ravens a 8% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI” (average of Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-15 (142 rows). Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate. Full history (CSV)