TodayEvery figure as of Oct 4, 6:34 PM ET

Constructed

The market-implied chance that Democrats control the Senate in the next Congress. Democrats need 51 seats, because the vice president, a Republican, breaks 50–50 ties. Each contract's own rules decide independents, runoffs and ties.

Equal-weight average of two venues, each priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask.
Kalshi 63.4% (constructed). Kalshi has no single Senate-control contract, so we add its two balance-of-power contracts in which Democrats win the Senate: D House + D Senate (62.5¢) and R House + D Senate (0.95¢).
Polymarket 66.5%, from its Senate-control contract.
Average: 65.0%, shown as 65%.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 65% chance of winning control of the Senate” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-04 (130 rows). Daily closing average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket. The last point is today's 6:34 PM observation. Full history (CSV)

The market-implied chance that Democrats win a House majority (218 seats) in the 2026 election, under each contract's settlement rules.

Equal-weight average of two venues' House-control contracts, each priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask: Kalshi 91.70% and Polymarket 92.5%. Average: 92.1%, shown as 92%.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 92% chance of winning the House” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-04 (130 rows). Kalshi daily close. The 7-day change for the House is measured on Kalshi alone. Full history (CSV)

Last trade

The chance the Federal Reserve raises its target range by a quarter point at the Oct. 27–28 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Settles on the Fed’s official statement.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (17.5%) and Polymarket (16.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets put the chance of a Fed rate hike on Oct. 28 at 17%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-04 (130 rows). Kalshi daily close. The last point is the 6:34 PM observation. Full history (CSV)

Last trade

The market-implied chance the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. American odds equivalent: +733, before fees.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (10.5%) and Polymarket (13.50%). This snapshot has Kalshi's last traded price, not its bid and ask, so both venues are priced at their last trade here.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give the Buffalo Bills a 12% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-04 (130 rows). Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate. Full history (CSV)

Last tradeStale

The chance the Democratic nominee wins the presidential election in November 2028.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (58.5%) and Polymarket (64.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 62% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance JD Vance is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (44.5%) and Polymarket (50.2%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give JD Vance a 47% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

The chance Republicans keep both the House and the Senate.

Average of Kalshi's R House + R Senate contract (8.20¢) and Polymarket's matching contract (7.5¢). These two contracts ask the same question, so this is a like-for-like comparison.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Markets give Republicans a 8% chance of keeping both chambers” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venue

The same question asked a different way: the chance the target range’s upper bound is above today’s after the October meeting.

Kalshi only. Shown to compare with Kalshi’s decision contract.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Single venue

The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Alaska (Peltola (D) vs. Sullivan (R)).

Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 74% chance in the Alaska Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Single venue

The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Michigan (El-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R)).

Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 72% chance in the Michigan Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The market-implied chance the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. American odds equivalent: +1169, before fees.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (8.5%) and Polymarket (7.25%). This snapshot has Kalshi's last traded price, not its bid and ask, so both venues are priced at their last trade here.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give the Baltimore Ravens a 8% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-04 (130 rows). Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate. Full history (CSV)