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Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Sep 27, 4:36 AM ET

A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records

Data observedSep 27, 4:36 AM ET

Live page updatedSep 27, 4:36 AM ET

Permanent URLhttps://defirate.com/prediction-markets/crypto/snapshot/2026-09-27T0436

DownloadAll figures and contracts (CSV)
15-minute markets, window closing 4:45 AM ET (CSV)

Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up

38%

The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (84,796.13) at the end of the window closing 4:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 40% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 38% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXBTC15M-26SEP270445-45	direct contract	37.0¢	38.0¢	37.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 1s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			39.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up

56%

The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,716.31) at the end of the window closing 4:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 46% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 56% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXETH15M-26SEP270445-45	direct contract	55.0¢	56.0¢	55.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 0s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			45.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

XRP finishes the 15-minute window up

53%

The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.5386) at the end of the window closing 4:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 73% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 53% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXXRP15M-26SEP270445-45	direct contract	52.0¢	53.0¢	52.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 1s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			73.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up

91%

The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0978465) at the end of the window closing 4:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 46% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 91% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXDOGE15M-26SEP270445-45	direct contract	91.3¢	91.4¢	91.35¢	midpoint	fresh · 0s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			46.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Solana finishes the 15-minute window up

23%

The chance Solana settles above its target price (124.3577) at the end of the window closing 4:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 44% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 23% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXSOL15M-26SEP270445-45	direct contract	22.0¢	23.0¢	22.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 0s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			44.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up

36%

Single venue

The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.4178) at the end of the window closing 4:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 36% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXNEAR15M-26SEP270445-45	direct contract	34.0¢	37.0¢	35.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 0s old	Contract ↗

Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up

13%

The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (93.2334) at the end of the window closing 4:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 53% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 13% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXHYPE15M-26SEP270445-45	direct contract	12.0¢	13.0¢	12.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 0s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			53.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up

71%

Single venue

The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,661.4503) at the end of the window closing 4:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 71% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXZEC15M-26SEP270445-45	direct contract	69.0¢	73.0¢	71.00¢	midpoint	fresh · 0s old	Contract ↗

BNB finishes the 15-minute window up

80%

The chance BNB settles above its target price (778.95) at the end of the window closing 4:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 88% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 80% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXBNB15M-26SEP270445-45	direct contract	79.0¢	81.0¢	80.00¢	midpoint	fresh · 0s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			87.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume

17%

Crypto contracts made up 16.8% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Sep 27, 2026: about $147 million of the $871 million traded.

Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

DeFi Rate market data

Prediction-market volume by venue and categoryEndpoint /v1/partner/volumeDeFi Rate’s licensed data feed.

Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days

$4.1B

Dollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Aug 28 to Sep 26, 2026, up 20% on the prior 30 days.

Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

DeFi Rate market data

Prediction-market volume by venue and categoryEndpoint /v1/partner/volumeDeFi Rate’s licensed data feed.