Prediction Markets What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in 2026?

Bitcoin Price Predictions in 2026

LIVE

Updated 7 minutes ago · 6:25 AM PDT

Bitcoin (BTC) is heavily favored to reach $65,000 at some point in 2026, with prediction markets pricing that outcome at 100.0% implied probability ( — aggregated odds). The $65,000 threshold leads in both volume and consensus, with $51.5K traded across prediction markets in the last 24 hours. Kalshi holds $473 in liquidty, with Polymarket adding $50.1K. The spread between venues is tight, suggesting strong agreement on pricing. We provide the aggregated cross-platform odds for Bitcoin price in 2026. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi, Polymarket and ForecastX with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.

Largest Spread

1.86%

$110,000 → View arbs

Current Favorite

100.0%

$65,000 +49.0%

24H Volume (Share)

$51.5K

Momentum Leader

+49.0%

$65,000 YTD change

Probability Over Time

Hover for details · Cursor-synced tooltips

Tap "Chart settings" to adjust the chart.

Period:

Platform:

Chart settings

Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms

Loading lines...

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

Sort:

$65,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

↑ +49.0%

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

$75,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

↑ +32.0%

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

$55,000

Vol $7.8K Spread —

Agg 71.5%

↑ +37.0%

P 71.5%

Polymarket 71.5%

Vol $7.8K 71–72¢

$45,000

Vol $6.7K Spread —

Agg 44.5%

↑ +23.5%

P 44.5%

Polymarket 44.5%

Vol $6.7K 44–45¢

$35,000

Vol $3.4K Spread —

Agg 23.5%

↑ +10.0%

P 23.5%

Polymarket 23.5%

Vol $3.4K 23–24¢

$100,000

Vol $13.6K Spread 4.5%

Agg 16.6%

↓ -67.9%

F 21.0%

K 18.5%

P 16.5%

$110,000

Vol $1.1K Spread 3.5%

Agg 13.5%

↓ -50.5%

F 15.0%

K 14.5%

P 11.5%

$25,000

Vol $708 Spread —

Agg 11.5%

↑ +4.0%

P 11.5%

Polymarket 11.5%

Vol $708 11–12¢

$120,000

Vol $1.4K Spread 7.5%

Agg 10.5%

↓ -37.5%

F 17.0%

P 10.5%

K 9.5%

$130,000

Vol $2.1K Spread 3.5%

Agg 6.6%

↓ -31.9%

F 10.0%

K 6.5%

P 6.5%

$15,000

Vol $1.1K Spread —

Agg 6.1%

↑ +1.0%

P 6.1%

Polymarket 6.1%

Vol $1.1K 6–6.1¢

$140,000

Vol $3.3K Spread 3.5%

Agg 5.5%

↓ -22.5%

F 9.0%

K 5.5%

P 5.5%

$150,000

Vol $574 Spread 4.6%

Agg 4.5%

↓ -17.5%

F 9.0%

K 4.5%

P 4.5%

$160,000

Vol $470 Spread —

Agg 3.6%

↓ -14.0%

P 3.6%

Polymarket 3.6%

Vol $470 3.4–3.7¢

$170,000

Vol $748 Spread —

Agg 3.3%

↓ -9.8%

P 3.3%

Polymarket 3.3%

Vol $748 3–3.5¢

$180,000

Vol $549 Spread —

Agg 2.5%

↓ -8.0%

P 2.5%

Polymarket 2.5%

Vol $549 2.4–2.5¢

$200,000

Vol $524 Spread 5.8%

Agg 2.3%

↓ -6.2%

F 8.0%

K 3.5%

P 2.3%

$190,000

Vol $850 Spread —

Agg 2.3%

↓ -6.7%

P 2.3%

Polymarket 2.3%

Vol $850 2.2–2.4¢

$250,000

Vol $6.5K Spread —

Agg 2.1%

↓ -2.6%

P 2.1%

Polymarket 2.1%

Vol $6.5K 2–2.1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
60 $65,000	100.0% ↑ +49.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
70 $75,000	100.0% ↑ +32.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —
50 $55,000	71.5% ↑ +37.0%	—	$7.8K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 71.5% 71–72¢ Vol $7.8K	ForecastEx — —
40 $45,000	44.5% ↑ +23.5%	—	$6.7K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 44.5% 44–45¢ Vol $6.7K	ForecastEx — —
30 $35,000	23.5% ↑ +10.0%	—	$3.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 23.5% 23–24¢ Vol $3.4K	ForecastEx — —
10 $100,000	16.6% ↓ -67.9%	4.5%	$13.6K	Kalshi 18.5% 18–19¢ Vol $66	Polymarket 16.5% 16–17¢ Vol $13.3K	ForecastEx 21.0% 21¢ Vol $229
10 $110,000	13.5% ↓ -50.5%	3.5%	$1.1K	Kalshi 14.5% 14–15¢ Vol $101	Polymarket 11.5% 11–12¢ Vol $461	ForecastEx 15.0% 15¢ Vol $579
20 $25,000	11.5% ↑ +4.0%	—	$708	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 11.5% 11–12¢ Vol $708	ForecastEx — —
10 $120,000	10.5% ↓ -37.5%	7.5%	$1.4K	Kalshi 9.5% 9–10¢ Vol $84	Polymarket 10.5% 10–11¢ Vol $1.3K	ForecastEx 17.0% 17¢ Vol $17
10 $130,000	6.6% ↓ -31.9%	3.5%	$2.1K	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $117	Polymarket 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $2.0K	ForecastEx 10.0% 10¢ Vol $51
10 $15,000	6.1% ↑ +1.0%	—	$1.1K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 6.1% 6–6.1¢ Vol $1.1K	ForecastEx — —
10 $140,000	5.5% ↓ -22.5%	3.5%	$3.3K	Kalshi 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $5	Polymarket 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $3.3K	ForecastEx 9.0% 9¢ Vol $10
10 $150,000	4.5% ↓ -17.5%	4.6%	$574	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $101	Polymarket 4.5% 4–4.9¢ Vol $473	ForecastEx 9.0% 9¢ Vol $0
10 $160,000	3.6% ↓ -14.0%	—	$470	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.6% 3.4–3.7¢ Vol $470	ForecastEx — —
10 $170,000	3.3% ↓ -9.8%	—	$748	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.3% 3–3.5¢ Vol $748	ForecastEx — —
10 $180,000	2.5% ↓ -8.0%	—	$549	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.5% 2.4–2.5¢ Vol $549	ForecastEx — —
20 $200,000	2.3% ↓ -6.2%	5.8%	$524	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 2.3% 2.2–2.3¢ Vol $515	ForecastEx 8.0% 8¢ Vol $8
10 $190,000	2.3% ↓ -6.7%	—	$850	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.3% 2.2–2.4¢ Vol $850	ForecastEx — —
20 $250,000	2.1% ↓ -2.6%	—	$6.5K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.1% 2–2.1¢ Vol $6.5K	ForecastEx — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
10 $110,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 12¢	Sell @ K 14¢	+2.00%	+1.86%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $100,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 17¢	Sell @ K 18¢	+1.00%	+0.82%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
20 $200,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.3¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.70%	+0.63%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $120,000	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 10¢	Sell @ P 10¢	+0.00%	-0.10%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
10 $150,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.9¢	Sell @ K 4¢	-0.90%	-0.97%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $140,000	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 6¢	Sell @ P 5¢	-1.00%	-1.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
10 $130,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 7¢	Sell @ K 6¢	-1.00%	-1.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
60 $65,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 6.5%	+93.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 6.5%	+93.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 10.5%	+89.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 10.5%	+89.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 11.5%	+88.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 11.5%	+88.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 11.5%	+88.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 11.5%	+88.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 16.5%	+83.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 16.5%	+83.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 23.5%	+76.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 23.5%	+76.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 71.5%	B 6.5%	+65.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 71.5%	B 10.5%	+61.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 71.5%	B 11.5%	+60.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 71.5%	B 11.5%	+60.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 44.5%	+55.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 44.5%	+55.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 71.5%	B 16.5%	+55.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 71.5%	B 23.5%	+48.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 44.5%	B 6.5%	+38.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 44.5%	B 10.5%	+34.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 44.5%	B 11.5%	+33.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 44.5%	B 11.5%	+33.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 71.5%	+28.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 71.5%	+28.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 44.5%	B 16.5%	+28.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 71.5%	B 44.5%	+27.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 44.5%	B 23.5%	+21.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
30 $35,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 23.5%	B 6.5%	+17.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.