Prediction Markets What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in 2026?

Bitcoin Price Predictions in 2026

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Updated 33 minutes ago · 6:45 PM PDT

Bitcoin (BTC) is heavily favored to reach $55,000 at some point in 2026, with prediction markets pricing that outcome at 57.5% implied probability ( -135 aggregated odds). The $55,000 threshold leads in both volume and consensus, with $47.9K traded across prediction markets in the last 24 hours. Kalshi holds $1.6K in liquidty, with Polymarket adding $45.4K. The spread between venues is tight, suggesting strong agreement on pricing. We provide the aggregated cross-platform odds for Bitcoin price in 2026. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi, Polymarket and ForecastX with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.

Largest Spread

4.87%

$100,000 → View arbs

Current Favorite

57.5%

$55,000 +23.0%

24H Volume (Share)

$47.9K

Momentum Leader

+23.0%

$55,000 YTD change

Probability Over Time

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Platform:

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Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms

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Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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$55,000

Vol $7.6K Spread —

Agg 57.5%

↑ +23.0%

P 57.5%

Polymarket 57.5%

Vol $7.6K 57–58¢

$45,000

Vol $11.4K Spread —

Agg 22.5%

↑ +1.5%

P 22.5%

Polymarket 22.5%

Vol $11.4K 22–23¢

$100,000

Vol $13.2K Spread 9.5%

Agg 8.6%

↓ -75.9%

F 17.0%

K 13.5%

P 7.5%

$35,000

Vol $7.8K Spread —

Agg 8.5%

↓ -5.0%

P 8.5%

Polymarket 8.5%

Vol $7.8K 8–9¢

$110,000

Vol $662 Spread 3.5%

Agg 6.5%

↓ -57.2%

F 9.0%

K 8.5%

P 5.5%

$120,000

Vol $353 Spread 3.5%

Agg 5.1%

↓ -42.9%

F 8.0%

K 6.5%

P 4.5%

$130,000

Vol $715 Spread 2.9%

Agg 4.2%

↓ -34.3%

F 7.0%

K 5.5%

P 4.2%

$25,000

Vol $27 Spread —

Agg 3.8%

↓ -3.8%

P 3.8%

Polymarket 3.8%

Vol $27 3.7–3.8¢

$140,000

Vol $1.3K Spread 2.5%

Agg 3.5%

↓ -24.8%

F 6.0%

K 4.5%

P 3.5%

$150,000

Vol $0 Spread 3.8%

Agg 3.4%

↓ -18.6%

F 7.0%

K 3.5%

P 3.3%

$160,000

Vol $25 Spread —

Agg 2.9%

↓ -14.6%

P 2.9%

Polymarket 2.9%

Vol $25 2.7–3.1¢

$170,000

Vol $10 Spread —

Agg 2.5%

↓ -10.5%

P 2.5%

Polymarket 2.5%

Vol $10 2.3–2.7¢

$190,000

Vol $34 Spread —

Agg 2.4%

↓ -6.7%

P 2.4%

Polymarket 2.4%

Vol $34 2.3–2.4¢

$200,000

Vol $322 Spread 2.9%

Agg 2.3%

↓ -6.2%

F 5.0%

K 2.5%

P 2.2%

$15,000

Vol $645 Spread —

Agg 2.3%

↓ -2.8%

P 2.3%

Polymarket 2.3%

Vol $645 2.2–2.3¢

$180,000

Vol $3 Spread —

Agg 2.2%

↓ -8.4%

P 2.2%

Polymarket 2.2%

Vol $3 2.1–2.2¢

$250,000

Vol $3.6K Spread —

Agg 1.8%

↓ -2.9%

P 1.8%

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $3.6K 1.7–1.9¢

$65,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

Settled

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

$75,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

Settled

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
50 $55,000	57.5% ↑ +23.0%	—	$7.6K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 57.5% 57–58¢ Vol $7.6K	ForecastEx — —
40 $45,000	22.5% ↑ +1.5%	—	$11.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 22.5% 22–23¢ Vol $11.4K	ForecastEx — —
10 $100,000	8.6% ↓ -75.9%	9.5%	$13.2K	Kalshi 13.5% 13–14¢ Vol $1.3K	Polymarket 7.5% 7–8¢ Vol $11.2K	ForecastEx 17.0% 17¢ Vol $659
30 $35,000	8.5% ↓ -5.0%	—	$7.8K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 8.5% 8–9¢ Vol $7.8K	ForecastEx — —
10 $110,000	6.5% ↓ -57.2%	3.5%	$662	Kalshi 8.5% 8–9¢ Vol $153	Polymarket 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $446	ForecastEx 9.0% 9¢ Vol $64
10 $120,000	5.1% ↓ -42.9%	3.5%	$353	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $11	Polymarket 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $286	ForecastEx 8.0% 8¢ Vol $56
10 $130,000	4.2% ↓ -34.3%	2.9%	$715	Kalshi 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $16	Polymarket 4.2% 4.1–4.2¢ Vol $699	ForecastEx 7.0% 7¢ Vol $0
20 $25,000	3.8% ↓ -3.8%	—	$27	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.8% 3.7–3.8¢ Vol $27	ForecastEx — —
10 $140,000	3.5% ↓ -24.8%	2.5%	$1.3K	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 3.5% 3.4–3.5¢ Vol $1.3K	ForecastEx 6.0% 6¢ Vol $0
10 $150,000	3.4% ↓ -18.6%	3.8%	$0	Kalshi 3.5% 3–4¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 3.3% 3–3.5¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx 7.0% 7¢ Vol $0
10 $160,000	2.9% ↓ -14.6%	—	$25	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.9% 2.7–3.1¢ Vol $25	ForecastEx — —
10 $170,000	2.5% ↓ -10.5%	—	$10	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.5% 2.3–2.7¢ Vol $10	ForecastEx — —
10 $190,000	2.4% ↓ -6.7%	—	$34	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.4% 2.3–2.4¢ Vol $34	ForecastEx — —
20 $200,000	2.3% ↓ -6.2%	2.9%	$322	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $158	Polymarket 2.2% 2.1–2.2¢ Vol $164	ForecastEx 5.0% 5¢ Vol $0
10 $15,000	2.3% ↓ -2.8%	—	$645	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.3% 2.2–2.3¢ Vol $645	ForecastEx — —
10 $180,000	2.2% ↓ -8.4%	—	$3	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.2% 2.1–2.2¢ Vol $3	ForecastEx — —
20 $250,000	1.8% ↓ -2.9%	—	$3.6K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.8% 1.7–1.9¢ Vol $3.6K	ForecastEx — —
60 $65,000	100.0% Settled	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
70 $75,000	100.0% Settled	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
10 $100,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 8¢	Sell @ K 13¢	+5.00%	+4.87%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $110,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 6¢	Sell @ K 8¢	+2.00%	+1.92%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $120,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 5¢	Sell @ K 6¢	+1.00%	+0.93%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $130,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.2¢	Sell @ K 5¢	+0.80%	+0.73%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $140,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.5¢	Sell @ K 4¢	+0.50%	+0.43%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
20 $200,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.2¢	Sell @ K 2¢	-0.20%	-0.27%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $150,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.5¢	Sell @ K 3¢	-0.50%	-0.57%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
60 $65,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 3.8%	+96.25%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 3.8%	+96.25%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 4.2%	+95.85%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 4.2%	+95.85%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 4.5%	+95.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 4.5%	+95.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 5.5%	+94.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 5.5%	+94.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 7.5%	+92.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 7.5%	+92.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 8.5%	+91.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 8.5%	+91.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 22.5%	+77.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 22.5%	+77.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 57.5%	B 3.8%	+53.75%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 57.5%	B 4.2%	+53.35%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 57.5%	B 4.5%	+53.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 57.5%	B 5.5%	+52.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 57.5%	B 7.5%	+50.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 57.5%	B 8.5%	+49.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 57.5%	+42.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 57.5%	+42.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 57.5%	B 22.5%	+35.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 22.5%	B 3.8%	+18.75%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 22.5%	B 4.2%	+18.35%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 22.5%	B 4.5%	+18.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 22.5%	B 5.5%	+17.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 22.5%	B 7.5%	+15.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 22.5%	B 8.5%	+14.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
10 $100,000	20 $200,000	Kalshi	A 13.5%	B 2.5%	+11.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.