Prediction Markets What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in 2026?

Bitcoin Price Predictions in 2026

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Updated 22 minutes ago · 1:24 PM PDT

Bitcoin (BTC) is heavily favored to reach $65,000 at some point in 2026, with prediction markets pricing that outcome at 100.0% implied probability ( — aggregated odds). The $65,000 threshold leads in both volume and consensus, with $144.5K traded across prediction markets in the last 24 hours. Kalshi holds $2.4K in liquidty, with Polymarket adding $141.6K. The spread between venues is tight, suggesting strong agreement on pricing. We provide the aggregated cross-platform odds for Bitcoin price in 2026. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi, Polymarket and ForecastX with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.

Largest Spread

2.76%

$100,000 → View arbs

Current Favorite

100.0%

$65,000 +49.0%

24H Volume (Share)

$144.5K

Momentum Leader

+49.0%

$65,000 YTD change

Probability Over Time

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Platform:

Chart settings

Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms

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Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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$65,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

↑ +49.0%

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

$75,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

↑ +32.0%

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

$55,000

Vol $45.4K Spread —

Agg 62.5%

↑ +28.0%

P 62.5%

Polymarket 62.5%

Vol $45.4K 62–63¢

$45,000

Vol $38.4K Spread —

Agg 37.5%

↑ +16.5%

P 37.5%

Polymarket 37.5%

Vol $38.4K 37–38¢

$100,000

Vol $17.2K Spread 4.5%

Agg 21.1%

↓ -63.4%

F 25.0%

K 24.5%

P 20.5%

$35,000

Vol $4.3K Spread —

Agg 18.5%

↑ +5.0%

P 18.5%

Polymarket 18.5%

Vol $4.3K 18–19¢

$110,000

Vol $8.7K Spread 2.0%

Agg 12.5%

↓ -51.5%

K 14.5%

F 13.0%

P 12.5%

$120,000

Vol $6.8K Spread 1.5%

Agg 9.5%

↓ -38.5%

F 11.0%

K 9.5%

P 9.5%

$25,000

Vol $1.0K Spread —

Agg 8.5%

↑ +1.0%

P 8.5%

Polymarket 8.5%

Vol $1.0K 8–9¢

$130,000

Vol $2.4K Spread 1.5%

Agg 5.5%

↓ -33.0%

K 6.5%

P 5.5%

F 5.0%

$140,000

Vol $1.1K Spread 4.0%

Agg 5.1%

↓ -22.9%

F 9.0%

K 5.5%

P 5.0%

$15,000

Vol $1.3K Spread —

Agg 4.1%

↓ -1.0%

P 4.1%

Polymarket 4.1%

Vol $1.3K 4–4.1¢

$150,000

Vol $2.5K Spread 3.2%

Agg 3.8%

↓ -18.2%

F 7.0%

K 5.5%

P 3.8%

$160,000

Vol $976 Spread —

Agg 3.5%

↓ -14.0%

P 3.5%

Polymarket 3.5%

Vol $976 3.3–3.7¢

$170,000

Vol $1.6K Spread —

Agg 3.1%

↓ -10.0%

P 3.1%

Polymarket 3.1%

Vol $1.6K 2.5–3.6¢

$180,000

Vol $2.7K Spread —

Agg 2.5%

↓ -8.0%

P 2.5%

Polymarket 2.5%

Vol $2.7K 2.3–2.7¢

$200,000

Vol $3.7K Spread 2.5%

Agg 2.1%

↓ -6.4%

K 4.5%

P 2.1%

F 2.0%

$190,000

Vol $503 Spread —

Agg 2.1%

↓ -6.9%

P 2.1%

Polymarket 2.1%

Vol $503 2–2.1¢

$250,000

Vol $5.8K Spread —

Agg 2.1%

↓ -2.6%

P 2.1%

Polymarket 2.1%

Vol $5.8K 2–2.1¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
60 $65,000	100.0% ↑ +49.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
70 $75,000	100.0% ↑ +32.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —
50 $55,000	62.5% ↑ +28.0%	—	$45.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 62.5% 62–63¢ Vol $45.4K	ForecastEx — —
40 $45,000	37.5% ↑ +16.5%	—	$38.4K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 37.5% 37–38¢ Vol $38.4K	ForecastEx — —
10 $100,000	21.1% ↓ -63.4%	4.5%	$17.2K	Kalshi 24.5% 24–25¢ Vol $2.2K	Polymarket 20.5% 20–21¢ Vol $14.7K	ForecastEx 25.0% 25¢ Vol $298
30 $35,000	18.5% ↑ +5.0%	—	$4.3K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 18.5% 18–19¢ Vol $4.3K	ForecastEx — —
10 $110,000	12.5% ↓ -51.5%	2.0%	$8.7K	Kalshi 14.5% 14–15¢ Vol $156	Polymarket 12.5% 12–13¢ Vol $8.5K	ForecastEx 13.0% 13¢ Vol $52
10 $120,000	9.5% ↓ -38.5%	1.5%	$6.8K	Kalshi 9.5% 9–10¢ Vol $20	Polymarket 9.5% 9–10¢ Vol $6.7K	ForecastEx 11.0% 11¢ Vol $82
20 $25,000	8.5% ↑ +1.0%	—	$1.0K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 8.5% 8–9¢ Vol $1.0K	ForecastEx — —
10 $130,000	5.5% ↓ -33.0%	1.5%	$2.4K	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $7	Polymarket 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $2.4K	ForecastEx 5.0% 5¢ Vol $21
10 $140,000	5.1% ↓ -22.9%	4.0%	$1.1K	Kalshi 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 5.0% 4–6¢ Vol $1.1K	ForecastEx 9.0% 9¢ Vol $20
10 $15,000	4.1% ↓ -1.0%	—	$1.3K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 4.1% 4–4.1¢ Vol $1.3K	ForecastEx — —
10 $150,000	3.8% ↓ -18.2%	3.2%	$2.5K	Kalshi 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 3.8% 3.6–4¢ Vol $2.5K	ForecastEx 7.0% 7¢ Vol $0
10 $160,000	3.5% ↓ -14.0%	—	$976	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.5% 3.3–3.7¢ Vol $976	ForecastEx — —
10 $170,000	3.1% ↓ -10.0%	—	$1.6K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.1% 2.5–3.6¢ Vol $1.6K	ForecastEx — —
10 $180,000	2.5% ↓ -8.0%	—	$2.7K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.5% 2.3–2.7¢ Vol $2.7K	ForecastEx — —
20 $200,000	2.1% ↓ -6.4%	2.5%	$3.7K	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $99	Polymarket 2.1% 2–2.1¢ Vol $3.6K	ForecastEx 2.0% 2¢ Vol $0
10 $190,000	2.1% ↓ -6.9%	—	$503	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.1% 2–2.1¢ Vol $503	ForecastEx — —
20 $250,000	2.1% ↓ -2.6%	—	$5.8K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.1% 2–2.1¢ Vol $5.8K	ForecastEx — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
10 $100,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 21¢	Sell @ K 24¢	+3.00%	+2.76%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
20 $200,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.1¢	Sell @ K 4¢	+1.90%	+1.83%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $150,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4¢	Sell @ K 5¢	+1.00%	+0.93%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $110,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 13¢	Sell @ K 14¢	+1.00%	+0.86%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $130,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 6¢	Sell @ K 6¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $140,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 6¢	Sell @ K 5¢	-1.00%	-1.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $120,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 10¢	Sell @ K 9¢	-1.00%	-1.09%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
60 $65,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 5.5%	+94.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 5.5%	+94.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 8.5%	+91.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 8.5%	+91.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 9.5%	+90.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 9.5%	+90.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 12.5%	+87.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 12.5%	+87.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 18.5%	+81.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 18.5%	+81.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 20.5%	+79.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 20.5%	+79.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 37.5%	+62.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 37.5%	+62.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 62.5%	B 5.5%	+57.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 62.5%	B 8.5%	+54.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 62.5%	B 9.5%	+53.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 62.5%	B 12.5%	+50.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 62.5%	B 18.5%	+44.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 62.5%	B 20.5%	+42.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 62.5%	+37.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 62.5%	+37.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 37.5%	B 5.5%	+32.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 37.5%	B 8.5%	+29.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 37.5%	B 9.5%	+28.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 62.5%	B 37.5%	+25.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 37.5%	B 12.5%	+25.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
10 $100,000	20 $200,000	Kalshi	A 24.5%	B 4.5%	+20.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
10 $100,000	10 $140,000	Kalshi	A 24.5%	B 5.5%	+19.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
10 $100,000	10 $150,000	Kalshi	A 24.5%	B 5.5%	+19.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.