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Bitcoin Price Predictions in 2026

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Updated 9 minutes ago · 9:52 AM PST

Bitcoin (BTC) is heavily favored to reach $75,000 at some point in 2026, with prediction markets pricing that outcome at 100.0% implied probability ({{agg.rank1.odds_american}} aggregated odds). The $75,000 threshold leads in both volume and consensus, with $145.9K traded across prediction markets in the last 24 hours. Kalshi holds $6.5K in liquidty, with Polymarket adding $139.4K. The spread between venues is tight, suggesting strong agreement on pricing.We provide the aggregated cross-platform odds for Bitcoin price in 2026. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi, Polymarket and ForecastX with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.

Largest Spread

0.87%

$140,000

Consensus Leader

100.0%

$75,000 0.0%

24H Volume (Share)

$150.1K

Momentum Leader

+1.5%

$55,000 7D change

Period:

Platform:

Probability Over Time

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Chart settings

Aggregated (VWAP)

Volume

Kalshi

Polymarket

ForecastEx

Cross-Venue Spread

Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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$75,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

— +0.0%

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

$65,000

Vol $0 Spread 5.0%

Agg 97.5%

— +0.0%

P 100.0%

F 95.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

ForecastEx 95.0%

Vol $0 95¢

$55,000

Vol $15.5K Spread —

Agg 74.5%

↑ +1.5%

P 74.5%

Polymarket 74.5%

Vol $15.5K 74–75¢

$45,000

Vol $4.8K Spread —

Agg 44.0%

↑ +1.5%

P 44.0%

Polymarket 44.0%

Vol $4.8K 43–45¢

$100,000

Vol $9.3K Spread 2.5%

Agg 40.8%

↓ -2.4%

F 42.0%

P 40.5%

K 39.5%

ForecastEx 42.0%

Vol $2.1K 42¢

Polymarket 40.5%

Vol $6.7K 40–41¢

Kalshi 39.5%

Vol $476 39–40¢

$110,000

Vol $898 Spread 3.0%

Agg 30.3%

↓ -2.0%

F 32.0%

K 30.0%

P 29.0%

ForecastEx 32.0%

Vol $201 32¢

Kalshi 30.0%

Vol $573 29–31¢

Polymarket 29.0%

Vol $125 28–30¢

$120,000

Vol $8.0K Spread 1.5%

Agg 22.6%

↓ -3.0%

F 24.0%

K 22.5%

P 22.5%

ForecastEx 24.0%

Vol $472 24¢

Kalshi 22.5%

Vol $4.0K 22–23¢

Polymarket 22.5%

Vol $3.5K 22–23¢

$35,000

Vol $838 Spread —

Agg 20.5%

↓ -2.0%

P 20.5%

Polymarket 20.5%

Vol $838 20–21¢

$130,000

Vol $2.0K Spread 0.5%

Agg 17.9%

↓ -1.1%

P 18.0%

F 18.0%

K 17.5%

Polymarket 18.0%

Vol $1.4K 17–19¢

ForecastEx 18.0%

Vol $127 18¢

Kalshi 17.5%

Vol $545 17–18¢

$140,000

Vol $342 Spread 3.5%

Agg 13.1%

↓ -2.5%

F 16.0%

P 15.0%

K 12.5%

ForecastEx 16.0%

Vol $57 16¢

Polymarket 15.0%

Vol $0 14–16¢

Kalshi 12.5%

Vol $286 12–13¢

$25,000

Vol $619 Spread —

Agg 12.0%

↑ +0.5%

P 12.0%

Polymarket 12.0%

Vol $619 11–13¢

$150,000

Vol $649 Spread 1.0%

Agg 9.8%

↓ -0.7%

K 10.5%

F 10.0%

P 9.5%

Kalshi 10.5%

Vol $167 10–11¢

ForecastEx 10.0%

Vol $38 10¢

Polymarket 9.5%

Vol $444 9–10¢

$160,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 7.5%

↓ -2.0%

P 7.5%

Polymarket 7.5%

Vol $0 7–8¢

$15,000

Vol $11.6K Spread —

Agg 6.6%

↓ -0.5%

P 6.6%

Polymarket 6.6%

Vol $11.6K 6.4–6.7¢

$190,000

Vol $45 Spread —

Agg 6.5%

↓ -2.0%

P 6.5%

Polymarket 6.5%

Vol $45 6–7¢

$180,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 6.5%

↓ -2.0%

P 6.5%

Polymarket 6.5%

Vol $0 6–7¢

$170,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 6.5%

↓ -2.0%

P 6.5%

Polymarket 6.5%

Vol $0 6–7¢

$200,000

Vol $1.4K Spread 7.0%

Agg 6.5%

↓ -0.1%

F 13.0%

K 7.5%

P 6.0%

ForecastEx 13.0%

Vol $5 13¢

Kalshi 7.5%

Vol $400 7–8¢

Polymarket 6.0%

Vol $996 5–7¢

$250,000

Vol $92.9K Spread —

Agg 5.1%

↑ +0.2%

P 5.1%

Polymarket 5.1%

Vol $92.9K 5.1–5.2¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
70 $75,000	100.0% — +0.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
60 $65,000	97.5% — +0.0%	5.0%	$0	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx 95.0% 95¢ Vol $0
50 $55,000	74.5% ↑ +1.5%	—	$15.5K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 74.5% 74–75¢ Vol $15.5K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
40 $45,000	44.0% ↑ +1.5%	—	$4.8K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 44.0% 43–45¢ Vol $4.8K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
10 $100,000	40.8% ↓ -2.4%	2.5%	$9.3K	Kalshi 39.5% 39–40¢ Vol $476	Polymarket 40.5% 40–41¢ Vol $6.7K	ForecastEx 42.0% 42¢ Vol $2.1K
10 $110,000	30.3% ↓ -2.0%	3.0%	$898	Kalshi 30.0% 29–31¢ Vol $573	Polymarket 29.0% 28–30¢ Vol $125	ForecastEx 32.0% 32¢ Vol $201
10 $120,000	22.6% ↓ -3.0%	1.5%	$8.0K	Kalshi 22.5% 22–23¢ Vol $4.0K	Polymarket 22.5% 22–23¢ Vol $3.5K	ForecastEx 24.0% 24¢ Vol $472
30 $35,000	20.5% ↓ -2.0%	—	$838	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 20.5% 20–21¢ Vol $838	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
10 $130,000	17.9% ↓ -1.1%	0.5%	$2.0K	Kalshi 17.5% 17–18¢ Vol $545	Polymarket 18.0% 17–19¢ Vol $1.4K	ForecastEx 18.0% 18¢ Vol $127
10 $140,000	13.1% ↓ -2.5%	3.5%	$342	Kalshi 12.5% 12–13¢ Vol $286	Polymarket 15.0% 14–16¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx 16.0% 16¢ Vol $57
20 $25,000	12.0% ↑ +0.5%	—	$619	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 12.0% 11–13¢ Vol $619	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
10 $150,000	9.8% ↓ -0.7%	1.0%	$649	Kalshi 10.5% 10–11¢ Vol $167	Polymarket 9.5% 9–10¢ Vol $444	ForecastEx 10.0% 10¢ Vol $38
10 $160,000	7.5% ↓ -2.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 7.5% 7–8¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
10 $15,000	6.6% ↓ -0.5%	—	$11.6K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 6.6% 6.4–6.7¢ Vol $11.6K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
10 $190,000	6.5% ↓ -2.0%	—	$45	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $45	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
10 $180,000	6.5% ↓ -2.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
10 $170,000	6.5% ↓ -2.0%	—	$0	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
20 $200,000	6.5% ↓ -0.1%	7.0%	$1.4K	Kalshi 7.5% 7–8¢ Vol $400	Polymarket 6.0% 5–7¢ Vol $996	ForecastEx 13.0% 13¢ Vol $5
20 $250,000	5.1% ↑ +0.2%	—	$92.9K	Kalshi — — Vol $0	Polymarket 5.1% 5.1–5.2¢ Vol $92.9K	ForecastEx — — Vol $0

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable
10 $140,000	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 13¢	Sell @ P 14¢	+1.00%	+0.87%	No
10 $100,000	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 40¢	Sell @ P 40¢	+0.00%	-0.40%	No
10 $150,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 10¢	Sell @ K 10¢	+0.00%	-0.10%	No
20 $200,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 7¢	Sell @ K 7¢	+0.00%	-0.07%	No
10 $130,000	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 18¢	Sell @ P 17¢	-1.00%	-1.18%	No
10 $110,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 30¢	Sell @ K 29¢	-1.00%	-1.29%	No
10 $120,000	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 23¢	Sell @ P 22¢	-1.00%	-1.23%	No

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy
70 $75,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 15.0%	+85.00%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 15.0%	+85.00%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 18.0%	+82.00%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 18.0%	+82.00%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 20.5%	+79.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 20.5%	+79.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 22.5%	+77.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 22.5%	+77.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 29.0%	+71.00%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 29.0%	+71.00%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 40.5%	+59.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 40.5%	+59.50%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 74.5%	B 15.0%	+59.50%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 74.5%	B 18.0%	+56.50%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 44.0%	+56.00%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 44.0%	+56.00%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 74.5%	B 20.5%	+54.00%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 74.5%	B 22.5%	+52.00%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 74.5%	B 29.0%	+45.50%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 74.5%	B 40.5%	+34.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	20 $200,000	Kalshi	A 39.5%	B 7.5%	+32.00%	Buy spread
50 $55,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 74.5%	B 44.0%	+30.50%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $150,000	Kalshi	A 39.5%	B 10.5%	+29.00%	Buy spread
40 $45,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 44.0%	B 15.0%	+29.00%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $140,000	Kalshi	A 39.5%	B 12.5%	+27.00%	Buy spread
40 $45,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 44.0%	B 18.0%	+26.00%	Buy spread
70 $75,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 74.5%	+25.50%	Buy spread
60 $65,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 74.5%	+25.50%	Buy spread
10 $100,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 40.5%	B 15.0%	+25.50%	Buy spread
40 $45,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 44.0%	B 20.5%	+23.50%	Buy spread

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.