Prediction Markets What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in 2026?

Bitcoin Price Predictions in 2026

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Updated 28 minutes ago · 10:44 AM PDT

Bitcoin (BTC) is heavily favored to reach $55,000 at some point in 2026, with prediction markets pricing that outcome at 48.5% implied probability ( +106 aggregated odds). The $55,000 threshold leads in both volume and consensus, with $34.4K traded across prediction markets in the last 24 hours. Kalshi holds $4.4K in liquidty, with Polymarket adding $29.8K. The spread between venues is tight, suggesting strong agreement on pricing. We provide the aggregated cross-platform odds for Bitcoin price in 2026. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi, Polymarket and ForecastX with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.

Largest Spread

1.88%

$100,000 → View arbs

Current Favorite

48.5%

$55,000 +14.0%

24H Volume (Share)

$34.4K

Momentum Leader

+14.0%

$55,000 YTD change

Probability Over Time

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Platform:

Chart settings

Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms

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Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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$55,000

Vol $12.9K Spread —

Agg 48.5%

↑ +14.0%

P 48.5%

Polymarket 48.5%

Vol $12.9K 48–49¢

$45,000

Vol $9.6K Spread —

Agg 25.5%

↑ +4.5%

P 25.5%

Polymarket 25.5%

Vol $9.6K 25–26¢

$35,000

Vol $527 Spread —

Agg 11.5%

↓ -2.0%

P 11.5%

Polymarket 11.5%

Vol $527 11–12¢

$100,000

Vol $7.4K Spread 3.5%

Agg 10.9%

↓ -73.6%

F 13.0%

K 12.5%

P 9.5%

$110,000

Vol $253 Spread 1.5%

Agg 7.5%

↓ -56.3%

F 9.0%

K 7.5%

P 7.5%

$120,000

Vol $1.2K Spread 3.5%

Agg 5.5%

↓ -42.5%

F 9.0%

K 5.5%

P 5.5%

$130,000

Vol $489 Spread 3.9%

Agg 4.2%

↓ -34.3%

F 8.0%

K 5.5%

P 4.1%

$25,000

Vol $705 Spread —

Agg 4.2%

↓ -3.3%

P 4.2%

Polymarket 4.2%

Vol $705 4–4.4¢

$140,000

Vol $160 Spread 2.4%

Agg 3.9%

↓ -24.4%

F 6.0%

K 5.5%

P 3.7%

$150,000

Vol $355 Spread 1.0%

Agg 3.6%

↓ -18.4%

K 4.5%

F 4.0%

P 3.5%

$160,000

Vol $156 Spread —

Agg 3.3%

↓ -14.2%

P 3.3%

Polymarket 3.3%

Vol $156 2.7–3.9¢

$170,000

Vol $173 Spread —

Agg 2.4%

↓ -10.6%

P 2.4%

Polymarket 2.4%

Vol $173 2.2–2.6¢

$180,000

Vol $47 Spread —

Agg 2.4%

↓ -8.1%

P 2.4%

Polymarket 2.4%

Vol $47 2.2–2.6¢

$190,000

Vol $224 Spread —

Agg 2.4%

↓ -6.7%

P 2.4%

Polymarket 2.4%

Vol $224 2.3–2.4¢

$200,000

Vol $139 Spread 4.8%

Agg 2.3%

↓ -6.2%

F 7.0%

K 2.5%

P 2.3%

$15,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 1.8%

↓ -3.2%

P 1.8%

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $0 1.6–2¢

$250,000

Vol $130 Spread —

Agg 1.7%

↓ -3.0%

P 1.7%

Polymarket 1.7%

Vol $130 1.6–1.7¢

$65,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

Settled

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

$75,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

Settled

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
50 $55,000	48.5% ↑ +14.0%	—	$12.9K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 48.5% 48–49¢ Vol $12.9K	ForecastEx — —
40 $45,000	25.5% ↑ +4.5%	—	$9.6K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 25.5% 25–26¢ Vol $9.6K	ForecastEx — —
30 $35,000	11.5% ↓ -2.0%	—	$527	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 11.5% 11–12¢ Vol $527	ForecastEx — —
10 $100,000	10.9% ↓ -73.6%	3.5%	$7.4K	Kalshi 12.5% 12–13¢ Vol $3.4K	Polymarket 9.5% 9–10¢ Vol $3.9K	ForecastEx 13.0% 13¢ Vol $63
10 $110,000	7.5% ↓ -56.3%	1.5%	$253	Kalshi 7.5% 7–8¢ Vol $1	Polymarket 7.5% 7–8¢ Vol $252	ForecastEx 9.0% 9¢ Vol $0
10 $120,000	5.5% ↓ -42.5%	3.5%	$1.2K	Kalshi 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $953	Polymarket 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $198	ForecastEx 9.0% 9¢ Vol $1
10 $130,000	4.2% ↓ -34.3%	3.9%	$489	Kalshi 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $7	Polymarket 4.1% 4–4.2¢ Vol $467	ForecastEx 8.0% 8¢ Vol $16
20 $25,000	4.2% ↓ -3.3%	—	$705	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 4.2% 4–4.4¢ Vol $705	ForecastEx — —
10 $140,000	3.9% ↓ -24.4%	2.4%	$160	Kalshi 5.5% 5–6¢ Vol $5	Polymarket 3.7% 3.4–3.9¢ Vol $143	ForecastEx 6.0% 6¢ Vol $12
10 $150,000	3.6% ↓ -18.4%	1.0%	$355	Kalshi 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $6	Polymarket 3.5% 3.1–3.8¢ Vol $293	ForecastEx 4.0% 4¢ Vol $56
10 $160,000	3.3% ↓ -14.2%	—	$156	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 3.3% 2.7–3.9¢ Vol $156	ForecastEx — —
10 $170,000	2.4% ↓ -10.6%	—	$173	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.4% 2.2–2.6¢ Vol $173	ForecastEx — —
10 $180,000	2.4% ↓ -8.1%	—	$47	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.4% 2.2–2.6¢ Vol $47	ForecastEx — —
10 $190,000	2.4% ↓ -6.7%	—	$224	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.4% 2.3–2.4¢ Vol $224	ForecastEx — —
20 $200,000	2.3% ↓ -6.2%	4.8%	$139	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $7	Polymarket 2.3% 2.2–2.3¢ Vol $132	ForecastEx 7.0% 7¢ Vol $0
10 $15,000	1.8% ↓ -3.2%	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.8% 1.6–2¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —
20 $250,000	1.7% ↓ -3.0%	—	$130	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.7% 1.6–1.7¢ Vol $130	ForecastEx — —
60 $65,000	100.0% Settled	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
70 $75,000	100.0% Settled	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
10 $100,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 10¢	Sell @ K 12¢	+2.00%	+1.88%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $140,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.9¢	Sell @ K 5¢	+1.10%	+1.03%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $130,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.2¢	Sell @ K 5¢	+0.80%	+0.73%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $150,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 3.8¢	Sell @ K 4¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
20 $200,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.3¢	Sell @ K 2¢	-0.30%	-0.37%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $120,000	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 6¢	Sell @ P 5¢	-1.00%	-1.07%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
10 $110,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 8¢	Sell @ K 7¢	-1.00%	-1.07%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
60 $65,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 4.1%	+95.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 4.1%	+95.90%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 4.2%	+95.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 4.2%	+95.80%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 5.5%	+94.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 5.5%	+94.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 7.5%	+92.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 7.5%	+92.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 9.5%	+90.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 9.5%	+90.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 11.5%	+88.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 11.5%	+88.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 25.5%	+74.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 25.5%	+74.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 48.5%	+51.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 48.5%	+51.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 48.5%	B 4.1%	+44.40%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 48.5%	B 4.2%	+44.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 48.5%	B 5.5%	+43.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 48.5%	B 7.5%	+41.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 48.5%	B 9.5%	+39.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 48.5%	B 11.5%	+37.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 48.5%	B 25.5%	+23.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 4.1%	+21.40%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	20 $25,000	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 4.2%	+21.30%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 5.5%	+20.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 7.5%	+18.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 9.5%	+16.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
40 $45,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 25.5%	B 11.5%	+14.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
10 $100,000	20 $200,000	Kalshi	A 12.5%	B 2.5%	+10.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.