Prediction Markets What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in 2026?

Bitcoin Price Predictions in 2026

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Updated 32 minutes ago · 2:43 PM PDT

Bitcoin (BTC) is heavily favored to reach $100,000 at some point in 2026, with prediction markets pricing that outcome at 23.7% implied probability ( +322 aggregated odds). The $100,000 threshold leads in both volume and consensus, with $180.5K traded across prediction markets in the last 24 hours. Kalshi holds $2.7K in liquidty, with Polymarket adding $177.0K. The spread between venues is tight, suggesting strong agreement on pricing. We provide the aggregated cross-platform odds for Bitcoin price in 2026. Current probability synthesis from Kalshi, Polymarket and ForecastX with arbitrage detection and venue comparison.

Largest Spread

1.88%

$120,000 → View arbs

Current Favorite

23.7%

$100,000 60.8%

24H Volume (Share)

$180.5K

Momentum Leader

3.5%

$15,000 YTD change

Probability Over Time

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Platform:

Chart settings

Visible lines Aggregated · VWAP · All platforms

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Current Odds Snapshot

Current probabilities across platforms with liquidity indicators

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$100,000

Vol $3.7K Spread 1.5%

Agg 23.7%

↓ -60.8%

F 25.0%

K 23.5%

P 23.5%

$55,000

Vol $21.7K Spread —

Agg 17.5%

↓ -17.0%

P 17.5%

Polymarket 17.5%

Vol $21.7K 17–18¢

$110,000

Vol $47.1K Spread 5.0%

Agg 13.5%

↓ -50.3%

F 18.0%

P 13.5%

K 13.0%

$120,000

Vol $1.1K Spread 3.5%

Agg 10.1%

↓ -37.9%

F 13.0%

K 12.5%

P 9.5%

$45,000

Vol $81.6K Spread —

Agg 8.5%

↓ -12.5%

P 8.5%

Polymarket 8.5%

Vol $81.6K 8–9¢

$130,000

Vol $2.8K Spread 2.5%

Agg 6.2%

↓ -32.3%

F 8.0%

K 6.5%

P 5.6%

$140,000

Vol $302 Spread 4.4%

Agg 4.9%

↓ -23.3%

F 9.0%

K 5.0%

P 4.7%

$35,000

Vol $816 Spread —

Agg 4.5%

↓ -9.0%

P 4.5%

Polymarket 4.5%

Vol $816 4–5¢

$150,000

Vol $87 Spread 4.4%

Agg 2.6%

↓ -19.4%

F 7.0%

K 4.0%

P 2.6%

$25,000

Vol $82 Spread —

Agg 2.2%

↓ -5.4%

P 2.2%

Polymarket 2.2%

Vol $82 2.1–2.2¢

$160,000

Vol $1.1K Spread —

Agg 1.8%

↓ -15.7%

P 1.8%

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $1.1K 1.8–1.9¢

$170,000

Vol $7.9K Spread —

Agg 1.8%

↓ -11.3%

P 1.8%

Polymarket 1.8%

Vol $7.9K 1.3–2.2¢

$15,000

Vol $352 Spread —

Agg 1.6%

↓ -3.5%

P 1.6%

Polymarket 1.6%

Vol $352 1.5–1.6¢

$180,000

Vol $11.2K Spread —

Agg 1.3%

↓ -9.2%

P 1.3%

Polymarket 1.3%

Vol $11.2K 1–1.6¢

$200,000

Vol $433 Spread 4.9%

Agg 1.1%

↓ -7.4%

F 6.0%

K 2.5%

P 1.1%

$190,000

Vol $5 Spread —

Agg 1.0%

↓ -8.0%

P 1.0%

Polymarket 1.0%

Vol $5 0.8–1.2¢

$250,000

Vol $53 Spread —

Agg 0.9%

↓ -3.8%

P 0.9%

Polymarket 0.9%

Vol $53 0.8–1¢

$65,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

Settled

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

$75,000

Vol $0 Spread —

Agg 100.0%

Settled

P 100.0%

Polymarket 100.0%

Vol $0 99.9–100¢

Outcome	Aggregated	Spread	Volume	Kalshi	Polymarket	ForecastEx
10 $100,000	23.7% ↓ -60.8%	1.5%	$3.7K	Kalshi 23.5% 23–24¢ Vol $743	Polymarket 23.5% 23–24¢ Vol $2.5K	ForecastEx 25.0% 25¢ Vol $542
50 $55,000	17.5% ↓ -17.0%	—	$21.7K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 17.5% 17–18¢ Vol $21.7K	ForecastEx — —
10 $110,000	13.5% ↓ -50.3%	5.0%	$47.1K	Kalshi 13.0% 12–14¢ Vol $124	Polymarket 13.5% 13–14¢ Vol $47.0K	ForecastEx 18.0% 18¢ Vol $2
10 $120,000	10.1% ↓ -37.9%	3.5%	$1.1K	Kalshi 12.5% 12–13¢ Vol $180	Polymarket 9.5% 9–10¢ Vol $895	ForecastEx 13.0% 13¢ Vol $49
40 $45,000	8.5% ↓ -12.5%	—	$81.6K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 8.5% 8–9¢ Vol $81.6K	ForecastEx — —
10 $130,000	6.2% ↓ -32.3%	2.5%	$2.8K	Kalshi 6.5% 6–7¢ Vol $1.5K	Polymarket 5.6% 5.3–5.8¢ Vol $1.1K	ForecastEx 8.0% 8¢ Vol $186
10 $140,000	4.9% ↓ -23.3%	4.4%	$302	Kalshi 5.0% 4–6¢ Vol $149	Polymarket 4.7% 4.6–4.7¢ Vol $147	ForecastEx 9.0% 9¢ Vol $6
30 $35,000	4.5% ↓ -9.0%	—	$816	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 4.5% 4–5¢ Vol $816	ForecastEx — —
10 $150,000	2.6% ↓ -19.4%	4.4%	$87	Kalshi 4.0% 3–5¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 2.6% 2.5–2.7¢ Vol $87	ForecastEx 7.0% 7¢ Vol $0
20 $25,000	2.2% ↓ -5.4%	—	$82	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 2.2% 2.1–2.2¢ Vol $82	ForecastEx — —
10 $160,000	1.8% ↓ -15.7%	—	$1.1K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.8% 1.8–1.9¢ Vol $1.1K	ForecastEx — —
10 $170,000	1.8% ↓ -11.3%	—	$7.9K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.8% 1.3–2.2¢ Vol $7.9K	ForecastEx — —
10 $15,000	1.6% ↓ -3.5%	—	$352	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.6% 1.5–1.6¢ Vol $352	ForecastEx — —
10 $180,000	1.3% ↓ -9.2%	—	$11.2K	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.3% 1–1.6¢ Vol $11.2K	ForecastEx — —
20 $200,000	1.1% ↓ -7.4%	4.9%	$433	Kalshi 2.5% 2–3¢ Vol $0	Polymarket 1.1% 0.9–1.3¢ Vol $433	ForecastEx 6.0% 6¢ Vol $0
10 $190,000	1.0% ↓ -8.0%	—	$5	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 1.0% 0.8–1.2¢ Vol $5	ForecastEx — —
20 $250,000	0.9% ↓ -3.8%	—	$53	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 0.9% 0.8–1¢ Vol $53	ForecastEx — —
60 $65,000	100.0% Settled	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — — Vol $0
70 $75,000	100.0% Settled	—	$0	Kalshi — —	Polymarket 100.0% 99.9–100¢ Vol $0	ForecastEx — —

Arbitrage Scanner

Current cross-venue opportunities with fee calculations

Minimum Spread 1.5%

Include fees

Show only actionable

Pairs (Venue-to-Venue)

Outcome	Venue Pair	Leg A (Buy)	Leg B (Sell)	Gross Spread	After Fees	Actionable	Trade Now
10 $120,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 10¢	Sell @ K 12¢	+2.00%	+1.88%	Yes	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
20 $200,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 1.3¢	Sell @ K 2¢	+0.70%	+0.63%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $150,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 2.7¢	Sell @ K 3¢	+0.30%	+0.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $130,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 5.8¢	Sell @ K 6¢	+0.20%	+0.13%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $140,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 4.7¢	Sell @ K 4¢	-0.70%	-0.77%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎
10 $110,000	Kalshi → Polymarket	Buy @ K 14¢	Sell @ P 13¢	-1.00%	-1.14%	No	K ↗︎ P ↗︎
10 $100,000	Polymarket → Kalshi	Buy @ P 24¢	Sell @ K 23¢	-1.00%	-1.23%	No	P ↗︎ K ↗︎

Outcome Diff

Outcome A	Outcome B	Venue	A Odds	B Odds	Diff	Strategy	Trade Now
60 $65,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 4.5%	+95.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 4.5%	+95.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 4.7%	+95.35%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 4.7%	+95.35%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 5.6%	+94.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 5.6%	+94.45%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 8.5%	+91.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 8.5%	+91.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 9.5%	+90.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 9.5%	+90.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 13.5%	+86.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $110,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 13.5%	+86.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 17.5%	+82.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	50 $55,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 17.5%	+82.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
60 $65,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 23.5%	+76.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
70 $75,000	10 $100,000	Polymarket	A 100.0%	B 23.5%	+76.50%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
10 $100,000	20 $200,000	Kalshi	A 23.5%	B 2.5%	+21.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
10 $100,000	10 $150,000	Kalshi	A 23.5%	B 4.0%	+19.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
10 $100,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 23.5%	B 4.5%	+19.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
10 $100,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 23.5%	B 4.7%	+18.85%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
10 $100,000	10 $140,000	Kalshi	A 23.5%	B 5.0%	+18.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
10 $100,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 23.5%	B 5.6%	+17.95%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
10 $100,000	10 $130,000	Kalshi	A 23.5%	B 6.5%	+17.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
10 $100,000	40 $45,000	Polymarket	A 23.5%	B 8.5%	+15.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
10 $100,000	10 $120,000	Polymarket	A 23.5%	B 9.5%	+14.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	30 $35,000	Polymarket	A 17.5%	B 4.5%	+13.00%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $140,000	Polymarket	A 17.5%	B 4.7%	+12.85%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
50 $55,000	10 $130,000	Polymarket	A 17.5%	B 5.6%	+11.95%	Buy spread	P ↗︎
10 $100,000	10 $120,000	Kalshi	A 23.5%	B 12.5%	+11.00%	Buy spread	K ↗︎
10 $110,000	20 $200,000	Kalshi	A 13.0%	B 2.5%	+10.50%	Buy spread	K ↗︎

Kalshi Trading Fee 1% (min $0.07, max $1.75) per side

Polymarket Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

Gemini Trading Fee 0.40% per side

Polymarket US Trading Fee 0% (gas only)

After-fee spreads apply the configured taker-fee model per side. Depth/slippage is not modeled in this scanner.

Methodology & Data Mapping

How we aggregate, normalize, and map cross-platform data

Aggregation Method

Default: Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

Weights each mapped market by its reported 24H USD volume at snapshot time. If volume is unavailable, we fall back to a simple average for that snapshot.

Use the VWAP/Simple toggle above the chart to switch aggregation views.

Data Sources & Cadence

Kalshi: Official API (best bid/ask + last + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

Polymarket: Market data via their API (token prices + best bid/ask + 24H volume/liquidity when available).

ForecastEx: FEX API (price from latest_prices; 24H USD volume estimated from trades as sum(quantity * yes_price); no bid/ask).

Event data is updated hourly. Older history is downsampled.

Outcome Mapping

Each event links one or more markets per provider. We normalize labels, map provider outcomes into a shared outcome list, and merge mapped markets where appropriate.

Spread & Liquidity

Cross-venue spread: Max–min difference across available venue probabilities for the same outcome.

Liquidity: Relative per-venue indicators based on provider liquidity fields (no depth/slippage modeling).

Arbitrage: Computed from best bid/ask when available (otherwise mid); after-fee spread applies the configured fee model only.