Fernando Mendoza is the overwhelming favorite to be the first overall pick by the Las Vegas Raiders at the 2026 NFL Draft. He’s trading at 99% implied probability at Kalshi and Polymarket. Other NFL Draft markets remain incredibly active, including who goes second and which prospects crack the top five. Our 2026 NFL Draft odds tracker aggregates live pricing using volume-weighted average pricing (VWAP), with hourly updates.
Trade $20, Get $20 Bonus
Polymarket US is live and open
Trade $10, Get $10 Free
CODE: DEFI
Best offer right now for the NBA playoffs
Play $5 in entries, get $50 in bonus entries
Must be 18+
T&C’s apply.
Weekly update
- Mendoza to Las Vegas is a lock. Fernando Mendoza sits at 99% on both Kalshi and Polymarket to go first overall to the Las Vegas Raiders. Barring something completely unexpected, he’ll be the first name called on Thursday night.
- Toss-up at #2. Ohio State linebacker/edge rusher Arvell Reese has been the favorite to go second overall in the months leading up to the draft. He’s now in a neck-and-neck battle with Texas Tech’s David Bailey to be the choice of the New York Jets.
- Jeremiyah Love is rising fast. The Notre Dame running back has jumped 17 points in the top 5 market on Kalshi, now sitting at 79% to go top five. His #4 overall probability on Kalshi sits at 49%, making Tennessee at pick four the most contested slot in the draft.
- Edge rushers are dominating the board. Polymarket’s first round most drafted position market has edge rusher/DE at 75% to lead all positions taken in round one, well ahead of offensive tackle at 35%.
- Trade activity expected. Polymarket’s “any team to trade into top 10” contract sits at 98%, reflecting near-certainty that the top of the board will see movement before the first round is over.
Last updated: April 22, 2026
Who will be the first overall pick at the NFL Draft?
Fernando Mendoza is the consensus pick to go first overall at 99% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. The Las Vegas Raiders hold the pick, and there are no indications that they’ll be trading the selection.
The quarterback delivered a memorable final collegiate season. He won the Heisman Trophy and numerous other accolades, leading the Indiana Hoosiers to a perfect record and a completely unexpected national title.
Speculation is mounting on what will happen after the first selection. For example, the market for who will be the second overall choice has hit $2.2 million in volume at Kalshi and continues to climb rapidly.
The table below shows where Kalshi traders have priced the top prospects heading into draft night.
| Prospect | Position | #2 Overall | Top 3 | Top 5 |
| Fernando Mendoza | QB | <1% | 98% | 99% |
| Arvell Reese | LB/EDGE | 50% | 71% | 97% |
| David Bailey | EDGE | 50% | 77% | 90% |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB | <1% | 32% | 74% |
| Sonny Styles | LB | <1% | 16% | 47% |
| Jordyn Tyson | WR | <1% | <1% | 22% |
| Francis Mauigoa | OT | <1% | 18% | 26% |
| Carnell Tate | WR | <1% | <1% | 19% |
| Caleb Downs | S | <1% | 10% | 16% |
Arvell Reese NFL Draft odds
Arvell Reese is one of the two favorites to go second overall at the NFL Draft. The market for that selection has been incredibly active. He was the consensus favorite for the slot in the months leading up to the draft, but pricing has since tightened considerably.
The New York Jets hold the second pick and are expected to select Reese or Texas Tech’s David Bailey. The two prospects are hovering around 50% at the leading prediction market platforms and continue to jockey for position as the first round approaches.
Reese, a standout linebacker from Ohio State, checks in at 6’4″ and 241 pounds with a 4.46 40-yard dash. He’s widely regarded as the most physically impressive linebacker in the 2026 class. If he doesn’t land with the Jets, pricing suggests he’ll be selected soon thereafter.
David Bailey’s odds for the NFL Draft
David Bailey’s odds have been surging heading into Thursday night’s first round. The Texas Tech edge rusher is now in a neck-and-neck battle with Reese to be the second overall selection by the Jets. He’s also among the pricing leaders to go in the Top 3 or Top 5.
His collegiate career began at Stanford. Bailey transferred to Texas Tech for his final season, leading all of college football in sacks and earning unanimous All-American honors. He booked a 4.50 40-yard dash at the combine, measuring at just under 6’4″ and 251 pounds.
Jeremiyah Love’s NFL Draft odds
Jeremiyah Love is among the favorites to go in the Top 5 picks at the NFL Draft. He’s trading for 74% in that market on Kalshi. Numerous mock drafts have the standout running back landing with the Tennessee Titans at the number four slot.
In three seasons at Notre Dame, he rushed for 2,882 yards and 36 touchdowns on a 6.7 yards-per-carry average, adding 63 receptions for 594 yards and six scores. Scouts describe him as a three-down back, a profile that has been trending in recent NFL drafts.
Other NFL Draft prospects to watch
Several players have active markets with meaningful top 10 probability heading into draft night.
- Jordyn Tyson. Arizona State WR. (77% Kalshi, 54% Polymarket)
- Sonny Styles. Ohio State LB (93% Kalshi, 51% Polymarket)
- Francis Mauigoa. Miami OT. (61% Kalshi, 50% Polymarket)
- Carnell Tate. Ohio State WR. (73% Kalshi. 59% Polymarket)
- Caleb Downs. Ohio State S. (70% Kalshi, 59% Polymarket)
Trading has been incredibly active in numerous markets as the countdown to the NFL Draft continues. Once the event opens on Thursday night, volume should soar, offering numerous opportunities for those interested in live trading as it all plays out.
NFL first round draft order
The table below shows all 32 first-round picks, including the top Kalshi implied probability for each team’s first selection.
| Pick | Team | Top projected selection |
| 1 | Las Vegas Raiders | QB – 99% |
| 2 | New York Jets | EDGE/DE – 92% |
| 3 | Arizona Cardinals | OL – 71% |
| 4 | Tennessee Titans | RB/FB – 70% |
| 5 | New York Giants | LB – 67% |
| 6 | Cleveland Browns | OL – 60% |
| 7 | Washington Commanders | CB/S – 71% |
| 8 | New Orleans Saints | WR – 58% |
| 9 | Kansas City Chiefs | OL – 50% |
| 10 | New York Giants | LB – 67% |
| 11 | Miami Dolphins | OL – 48% |
| 12 | Dallas Cowboys | CB/S – 99% |
| 13 | Los Angeles Rams | WR – 41% |
| 14 | Baltimore Ravens | OL – 60% |
| 15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | EDGE/DE – 42% |
| 16 | New York Jets | EDGE/DE – 92% |
| 17 | Detroit Lions | OL – 61% |
| 18 | Minnesota Vikings | CB/S – 61% |
| 19 | Carolina Panthers | OL – 29% |
| 20 | Dallas Cowboys | CB/S – 99% |
| 21 | Pittsburgh Steelers | WR – 68% |
| 22 | Los Angeles Chargers | EDGE/DE – 48% |
| 23 | Philadelphia Eagles | OL – 62% |
| 24 | Cleveland Browns | OL – 60% |
| 25 | Chicago Bears | EDGE/DE – 58% |
| 26 | Buffalo Bills | EDGE/DE – 41% |
| 27 | San Francisco 49ers | EDGE/DE – 71% |
| 28 | Houston Texans | OL – 60% |
| 29 | Kansas City Chiefs | OL – 50% |
| 30 | Miami Dolphins | OL – 48% |
| 31 | New England Patriots | EDGE/DE – 31% |
| 32 | Seattle Seahawks | CB/S – 49% |
Other NFL Draft prediction markets
The leading platforms offer a wide range of markets and props for the 2026 NFL Draft. Examples include:
- Top picks: Beyond first overall, trade on Top 3, Top 5, Top 10, and more.
- Player to be drafted: Decide if a player will be drafted in round one or later.
- Draft category: Markets tied to the number of players drafted by school or position.
- Draft matchup: Contracts for which player will be drafted first.
- Draft over/under: Speculate on when a player will be picked, such as O/U 15.5.
- Drafted by team: Make the call on which club will draft a specific player.
- Exact pick: Select the correct player that will be picked by draft position.
- Positional draft order: Who will be the first or second pick at a specific position.
- Team 1st selection: Markets for which position a team will draft with their first choice.
In addition, there are several novelty props available, such as how many QBs will be drafted in total, and a variety of options on trades during the event. As round one approaches and the draft continues, keep your eyes out for mention markets tied to the broadcast.
NFL Draft format and key dates
The NFL Draft is a three-day event held annually in late April, allowing all 32 franchises to select eligible college players and international prospects. Draft order is determined by the previous season’s records, with tiebreakers applied by strength of schedule. Teams can trade picks freely before and during the event.
The road to the draft begins well before April. The college football season concludes in January, after which players can declare for the draft by a league deadline. The NFL Scouting Combine takes place in Indianapolis in late February, with some players participating in pro days at individual schools in March and early April.
The 2026 NFL Draft will be held at Pittsburgh’s North Shore across Acrisure Stadium and Point State Park.
- Round 1: Thursday, April 23, 2026
- Rounds 2-3: Friday, April 24, 2026
- Rounds 4-7: Saturday, April 25, 2026
NFL Draft history and trends
Here’s a look at the #1 overall picks from the last ten NFL Drafts.
| Year | Player | Position | Team |
| 2025 | Travis Hunter | WR/CB | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2024 | Caleb Williams | QB | Chicago Bears |
| 2023 | Bryce Young | QB | Carolina Panthers |
| 2022 | Travon Walker | EDGE | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2021 | Trevor Lawrence | QB | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2020 | Joe Burrow | QB | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2019 | Kyler Murray | QB | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2018 | Baker Mayfield | QB | Cleveland Browns |
| 2017 | Myles Garrett | EDGE | Cleveland Browns |
| 2016 | Jared Goff | QB | Los Angeles Rams |
How NFL draft prediction markets work
An NFL Draft prediction market contract is a binary position on a single outcome, such as whether a specific player will be selected at a specific pick. Each contract is priced in cents, and that price reflects the market’s implied probability. A contract priced at $0.54 means traders collectively assign a 54% chance to that outcome resolving Yes.
If the outcome resolves Yes, the contract pays $1. If No, it pays $0. Contracts can be bought or sold at any time before the market closes. For example, a trader who buys shares of Arvell Reese to go in the top 3 selections at $0.70 and watches it climb to $0.88 can sell before the draft and lock in a return without waiting for the pick.
Unlike a traditional sportsbook, there is no house margin embedded in the price. Prediction market prices reflect genuine crowd conviction, which is why tight spreads between Kalshi and Polymarket on high-volume contracts signal strong consensus. For a direct comparison of how trading works at the two leading platforms, see our Kalshi vs. Polymarket breakdown.
NFL draft prediction market resolution criteria
Here is the resolution language sourced directly from both platforms.
- Kalshi: The market resolves Yes if the named player is selected at the specified pick number or within the specified range in the 2026 NFL Draft. Outcome is verified from official NFL Draft results. If a player withdraws before the draft or goes undrafted, the market resolves No. Markets close when the relevant pick is announced.
- Polymarket: Each market resolves Yes if the named player is selected at the specified pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, based on official NFL announcements. The market resolves No if it becomes impossible for the outcome to occur — including if a player withdraws from the draft. Resolution source is official NFL Draft results. Projected resolution date is on or around April 23–25, 2026, depending on the pick in question.
A few edge cases worth understanding before you trade: if a pick is traded on draft night, the new team’s selection counts for team-specific markets. If a player removes themselves from the draft after markets open but before the pick is made, contracts resolve to No, not pending.
Where to trade NFL prediction markets
NFL Draft markets are live on multiple platforms right now, each with different fee structures, liquidity levels, and bonus offers. Here is what you need to know about each heading into draft week.
- Kalshi is the primary CFTC-regulated prediction market for US traders, available in 49 states. Kalshi carries the deepest regulated US liquidity on NFL Draft contracts, with specific pick markets and many more open for trading.
- Polymarket carries significant global volume on NFL Draft props. Polymarket US operates as a separate CFTC-regulated entity for US-based traders. Individual player volume is visible alongside prices, giving traders a clear read on where money is flowing.
- OG Predictions offers draft markets with a competitive bonus structure. Liquidity is lower than Kalshi and Polymarket on draft contracts. Be sure to check the bid-ask spread before entering a position, particularly on lower-volume props.
- DraftKings Predictions brings one of the most recognizable brands in US sports to the prediction market space, with a user experience familiar to anyone who has used the DraftKings sportsbook. NFL Draft coverage is available.
- FanDuel Predicts has expanded into prediction markets with a streamlined interface suited for traders coming from a traditional sports betting background. NFL Draft contracts are available.
- Underdog Predict rounds out the field with draft market coverage and a familiar environment for sports-focused traders.
Prediction market trading is available nationwide, including states without traditional sports betting, such as California and Texas. For the latest platform offers heading into draft week, see our full list of prediction market promos.