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Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Sep 27, 3:21 AM ET

A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records

Data observedSep 27, 3:21 AM ET

Live page updatedSep 27, 3:21 AM ET

Permanent URLhttps://defirate.com/prediction-markets/crypto/snapshot/2026-09-27T0321

DownloadAll figures and contracts (CSV)
15-minute markets, window closing 3:30 AM ET (CSV)

Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up

30%

The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (84,508.71) at the end of the window closing 3:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 48% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 30% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXBTC15M-26SEP270330-30	direct contract	29.0¢	30.0¢	29.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 14s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			48.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up

42%

The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,705.68) at the end of the window closing 3:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 42% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXETH15M-26SEP270330-30	direct contract	41.0¢	43.0¢	42.00¢	midpoint	fresh · 14s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			52.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

XRP finishes the 15-minute window up

52%

The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.5225) at the end of the window closing 3:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 45% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 52% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXXRP15M-26SEP270330-30	direct contract	51.0¢	52.0¢	51.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 14s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			45.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up

66%

The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0969414) at the end of the window closing 3:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 51% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 66% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXDOGE15M-26SEP270330-30	direct contract	65.0¢	66.0¢	65.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 14s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			51.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Solana finishes the 15-minute window up

47%

The chance Solana settles above its target price (121.362) at the end of the window closing 3:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 48% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 47% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXSOL15M-26SEP270330-30	direct contract	46.0¢	47.0¢	46.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 12s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			47.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up

61%

Single venue

The chance NEAR settles above its target price (5.4567) at the end of the window closing 3:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 61% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXNEAR15M-26SEP270330-30	direct contract	59.0¢	62.0¢	60.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 12s old	Contract ↗

Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up

75%

The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (92.8412) at the end of the window closing 3:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 74% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 75% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXHYPE15M-26SEP270330-30	direct contract	74.0¢	75.0¢	74.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 12s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			74.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up

40%

Single venue

The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,663.7875) at the end of the window closing 3:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 40% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXZEC15M-26SEP270330-30	direct contract	39.0¢	40.0¢	39.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 8s old	Contract ↗

BNB finishes the 15-minute window up

44%

The chance BNB settles above its target price (775.39) at the end of the window closing 3:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 54% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 44% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXBNB15M-26SEP270330-30	direct contract	43.0¢	44.0¢	43.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 8s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			54.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume

17%

Crypto contracts made up 16.9% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Sep 27, 2026: about $146 million of the $868 million traded.

Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

DeFi Rate market data

Prediction-market volume by venue and categoryEndpoint /v1/partner/volumeDeFi Rate’s licensed data feed.

Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days

$4.1B

Dollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Aug 28 to Sep 26, 2026, up 20% on the prior 30 days.

Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

DeFi Rate market data

Prediction-market volume by venue and categoryEndpoint /v1/partner/volumeDeFi Rate’s licensed data feed.