2028 electionEvery figure as of Oct 13, 4:39 AM ET

Last tradeStale

The chance the Democratic nominee wins the presidential election in November 2028.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (58.5%) and Polymarket (63.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 61% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance JD Vance is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (42.5%) and Polymarket (48.8%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give JD Vance a 46% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance Marco Rubio is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (17.5%) and Polymarket (14.8%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Marco Rubio a 16% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance Ron DeSantis is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.1%) and Polymarket (2.5%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ron DeSantis a 3% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance Tucker Carlson is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.6%) and Polymarket (3.0%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Tucker Carlson a 3% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance Ted Cruz is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.1%) and Polymarket (2.4%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ted Cruz a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance Donald Trump Jr. is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.8%) and Polymarket (1.7%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Donald Trump Jr. a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance Donald Trump is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.2%) and Polymarket (2.1%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Donald Trump a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance Ivanka Trump is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (1.1%) and Polymarket (1.1%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ivanka Trump a 1% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeStale

The chance Brian Kemp is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (1.6%) and Polymarket (0.5%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Brian Kemp a 1% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (13.5%) and Polymarket (17.8%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 16% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance Jon Ossoff is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (16.5%) and Polymarket (14.3%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Jon Ossoff a 15% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance Gavin Newsom is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (13.5%) and Polymarket (14.1%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Gavin Newsom a 14% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance Kamala Harris is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (7.6%) and Polymarket (6.2%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Kamala Harris a 7% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance Josh Shapiro is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.7%) and Polymarket (5.9%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Josh Shapiro a 5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance Pete Buttigieg is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (5.1%) and Polymarket (5.1%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Pete Buttigieg a 5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance Andy Beshear is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (5.0%) and Polymarket (3.5%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Andy Beshear a 4% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance Mark Kelly is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (3.9%) and Polymarket (2.5%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Mark Kelly a 3% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance Rahm Emanuel is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.8%) and Polymarket (1.7%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Rahm Emanuel a 2% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance James Talarico is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.3%) and Polymarket (2.1%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give James Talarico a 2% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance JD Vance wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives JD Vance a 22% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 13% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance Jon Ossoff wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Jon Ossoff a 10% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance Gavin Newsom wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Gavin Newsom a 9% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance Marco Rubio wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Marco Rubio a 8% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venueStale

The chance Kamala Harris wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Kamala Harris a 5% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venueStale

The chance Josh Shapiro wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Josh Shapiro a 3% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance Pete Buttigieg wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Pete Buttigieg a 3% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).