The snapshot from Oct 4, 6:09 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/us-president/snapshot/2026-10-04T1900/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
2028 electionEvery figure as of Oct 4, 7:00 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Democrats win the 2028 presidential election
62%Last tradeStale
The chance the Democratic nominee wins the presidential election in November 2028.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (58.5%) and Polymarket (64.5%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 62% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESPARTY-2028-D | direct contract | 58.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 2819s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-the-democrats-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 64.50¢ | last trade | stale · 16654s old | Contract ↗ |
JD Vance wins the Republican nomination
47%Last trade
The chance JD Vance is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (44.5%) and Polymarket (50.2%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give JD Vance a 47% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV | direct contract | 44.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 1775s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 50.25¢ | last trade | fresh · 202s old | Contract ↗ |
Marco Rubio wins the Republican nomination
16%Last trade
The chance Marco Rubio is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (17.5%) and Polymarket (15.3%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Marco Rubio a 16% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-MR | direct contract | 17.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 1357s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 15.35¢ | last trade | fresh · 1223s old | Contract ↗ |
Ron DeSantis wins the Republican nomination
3%Last trade
The chance Ron DeSantis is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.2%) and Polymarket (2.6%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ron DeSantis a 3% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-RDS | direct contract | 4.15¢ | last trade | fresh · 1801s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-ron-desantis-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 2.60¢ | last trade | fresh · 149s old | Contract ↗ |
Tucker Carlson wins the Republican nomination
3%Last trade
The chance Tucker Carlson is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.9%) and Polymarket (3.1%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Tucker Carlson a 3% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR | direct contract | 2.95¢ | last trade | fresh · 3389s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-tucker-carlson-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 3.15¢ | last trade | fresh · 207s old | Contract ↗ |
Ted Cruz wins the Republican nomination
2%Last trade
The chance Ted Cruz is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.1%) and Polymarket (2.5%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ted Cruz a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-TC | direct contract | 2.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 2965s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-ted-cruz-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 2.55¢ | last trade | fresh · 596s old | Contract ↗ |
Donald Trump Jr. wins the Republican nomination
2%Last trade
The chance Donald Trump Jr. is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.8%) and Polymarket (1.6%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Donald Trump Jr. a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR | direct contract | 2.75¢ | last trade | fresh · 2680s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-donald-trump-jr-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 1.55¢ | last trade | fresh · 441s old | Contract ↗ |
Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination
2%Last trade
The chance Donald Trump is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.1%) and Polymarket (1.9%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Donald Trump a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-DJT | direct contract | 2.10¢ | last trade | fresh · 2164s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-donald-trump-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 1.95¢ | last trade | fresh · 140s old | Contract ↗ |
Ivanka Trump wins the Republican nomination
1%Last trade
The chance Ivanka Trump is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (1.2%) and Polymarket (0.9%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ivanka Trump a 1% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-ITRU | direct contract | 1.25¢ | last trade | fresh · 1159s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-ivanka-trump-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 0.85¢ | last trade | fresh · 3077s old | Contract ↗ |
Jon Ossoff wins the Democratic nomination
16%Last trade
The chance Jon Ossoff is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (16.5%) and Polymarket (15.4%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Jon Ossoff a 16% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-JOSS | direct contract | 16.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 380s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-jon-ossoff-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-885 | direct contract | 15.45¢ | last trade | fresh · 3077s old | Contract ↗ |
Gavin Newsom wins the Democratic nomination
15%Last trade
The chance Gavin Newsom is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (13.5%) and Polymarket (17.1%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Gavin Newsom a 15% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-GN | direct contract | 13.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 935s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-568 | direct contract | 17.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 185s old | Contract ↗ |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the Democratic nomination
15%Last trade
The chance Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (13.5%) and Polymarket (17.0%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 15% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-AOC | direct contract | 13.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 71s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-653 | direct contract | 16.95¢ | last trade | fresh · 191s old | Contract ↗ |
Kamala Harris wins the Democratic nomination
7%Last trade
The chance Kamala Harris is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (7.2%) and Polymarket (6.7%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Kamala Harris a 7% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-KH | direct contract | 7.25¢ | last trade | fresh · 859s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-641 | direct contract | 6.70¢ | last trade | fresh · 253s old | Contract ↗ |
Josh Shapiro wins the Democratic nomination
5%Last trade
The chance Josh Shapiro is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.7%) and Polymarket (5.9%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Josh Shapiro a 5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-JS | direct contract | 4.65¢ | last trade | fresh · 3402s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-977 | direct contract | 5.90¢ | last trade | fresh · 376s old | Contract ↗ |
Pete Buttigieg wins the Democratic nomination
5%Last trade
The chance Pete Buttigieg is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (5.1%) and Polymarket (5.1%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Pete Buttigieg a 5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-PB | direct contract | 5.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 1292s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-pete-buttigieg-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-687 | direct contract | 5.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 310s old | Contract ↗ |
Andy Beshear wins the Democratic nomination
4%Last trade
The chance Andy Beshear is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (5.7%) and Polymarket (3.0%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Andy Beshear a 4% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-AB | direct contract | 5.70¢ | last trade | fresh · 1747s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-andy-beshear-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-832 | direct contract | 3.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 296s old | Contract ↗ |
Mark Kelly wins the Democratic nomination
3%Last trade
The chance Mark Kelly is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.2%) and Polymarket (2.6%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Mark Kelly a 3% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-MK | direct contract | 4.15¢ | last trade | fresh · 2164s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-mark-kelly-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-479 | direct contract | 2.60¢ | last trade | fresh · 3077s old | Contract ↗ |
James Talarico wins the Democratic nomination
3%Last trade
The chance James Talarico is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (3.7%) and Polymarket (2.5%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give James Talarico a 3% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-JTAL | direct contract | 3.70¢ | last trade | fresh · 1211s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 2.55¢ | last trade | fresh · 85s old | Contract ↗ |
Rahm Emanuel wins the Democratic nomination
2%Last trade
The chance Rahm Emanuel is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.6%) and Polymarket (1.8%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Rahm Emanuel a 2% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA | direct contract | 2.65¢ | last trade | fresh · 2229s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299 | direct contract | 1.75¢ | last trade | fresh · 54s old | Contract ↗ |
JD Vance wins the presidency
20%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance JD Vance wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives JD Vance a 20% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 20.25¢ | last trade | fresh · 235s old | Contract ↗ |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the presidency
13%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 13% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 13.25¢ | last trade | fresh · 406s old | Contract ↗ |
Jon Ossoff wins the presidency
11%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Jon Ossoff wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Jon Ossoff a 11% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-jon-ossoff-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 10.85¢ | last trade | stale · 16654s old | Contract ↗ |
Marco Rubio wins the presidency
9%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Marco Rubio wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Marco Rubio a 9% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 9.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 757s old | Contract ↗ |
Gavin Newsom wins the presidency
8%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Gavin Newsom wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Gavin Newsom a 8% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 7.85¢ | last trade | fresh · 140s old | Contract ↗ |
Kamala Harris wins the presidency
4%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Kamala Harris wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Kamala Harris a 4% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 3.95¢ | last trade | fresh · 220s old | Contract ↗ |
Josh Shapiro wins the presidency
3%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Josh Shapiro wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Josh Shapiro a 3% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 3.05¢ | last trade | stale · 16654s old | Contract ↗ |
Pete Buttigieg wins the presidency
3%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Pete Buttigieg wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Pete Buttigieg a 3% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-pete-buttigieg-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 2.75¢ | last trade | fresh · 612s old | Contract ↗ |