The snapshot from Oct 5, 1:34 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/snapshot/2026-10-05T1411/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Fed decisionEvery figure as of Oct 5, 2:11 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
The Fed hikes on Oct. 28
21%Last trade
The chance the Federal Reserve raises its target range by a quarter point at the Oct. 27–28 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Settles on the Fed’s official statement.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (21.5%) and Polymarket (20.5%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets put the chance of a Fed rate hike on Oct. 28 at 21%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H25 | direct contract | 21.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 604s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324032 | direct contract | 20.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 152s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-05 (132 rows). Kalshi daily close. The last point is the 2:11 PM observation. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 21.5% |
| 2026-10-04 | 17.5% |
| 2026-10-03 | 17.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | 18.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | 26.5% |
| 2026-09-30 | 33.0% |
The Fed holds on Oct. 28
79%Last trade
The chance the Fed leaves its target range unchanged on Oct. 28, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (78.5%) and Polymarket (78.5%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets put the chance the Fed holds on Oct. 28 at 79%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0 | direct contract | 78.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 208s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324031 | direct contract | 78.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 147s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-05 (132 rows). Kalshi daily close. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 78.5% |
| 2026-10-04 | 82.5% |
| 2026-10-03 | 82.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | 80.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | 73.5% |
| 2026-09-30 | 64.5% |
The Fed hikes on Dec. 9
74%Last trade
The chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8–9 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Each meeting is its own market, so this isn’t conditional on October.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (73.5%) and Polymarket (74.5%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets put the chance of a December Fed hike at 74%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H25 | direct contract | 73.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 364s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808636 | direct contract | 74.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 209s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-05 (127 rows). Kalshi daily close. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 | 73.5% |
| 2026-10-04 | 70.5% |
| 2026-10-03 | 70.5% |
| 2026-10-02 | 71.5% |
| 2026-10-01 | 69.5% |
| 2026-09-30 | 71.0% |
At least one more hike in 2026
77%Last trade
The chance the Fed raises rates at least once more before the end of 2026.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (76.5%) and Polymarket (77.5%). The two contracts are worded differently but settle on the same outcome.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets give about a 77% chance of at least one more Fed hike in 2026” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDHIKE-2-26DEC31 | direct contract | 76.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 595s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026 | direct contract | 77.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 153s old | Contract ↗ |
October hike, per Kalshi’s rate-level market
20%Last tradeSingle venue
The same question asked a different way: the chance the target range’s upper bound is above today’s after the October meeting.
Kalshi only. Shown to compare with Kalshi’s decision contract.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFED-26OCT-T4.00 | direct contract | 19.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 423s old | Contract ↗ |