Fed decisionEvery figure as of Oct 4, 2:08 PM ET

A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records

Data observedOct 4, 2:08 PM ET

Live page updatedOct 4, 2:08 PM ET

Permanent URLhttps://defirate.com/odds/fed-decision/snapshot/2026-10-04T1408

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Fed meeting odds (Kalshi) (CSV)

The Fed hikes on Oct. 28

17%

Last tradeStale

The chance the Federal Reserve raises its target range by a quarter point at the Oct. 27–28 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Settles on the Fed’s official statement.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (17.5%) and Polymarket (16.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets put the chance of a Fed rate hike on Oct. 28 at 17%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H25	direct contract			17.50¢	last trade	stale · 1247s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324032	direct contract			16.50¢	last trade	fresh · 209s old	Contract ↗

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-04 (131 rows). Kalshi daily close. The last point is the 2:08 PM observation. Full history (CSV)

Date	Value
2026-10-04	17.5%
2026-10-03	17.5%
2026-10-02	18.5%
2026-10-01	26.5%
2026-09-30	33.0%
2026-09-29	43.5%

The Fed holds on Oct. 28

83%

Last trade

The chance the Fed leaves its target range unchanged on Oct. 28, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (82.5%) and Polymarket (82.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets put the chance the Fed holds on Oct. 28 at 83%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0	direct contract			82.50¢	last trade	fresh · 234s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324031	direct contract			82.50¢	last trade	fresh · 214s old	Contract ↗

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-04 (131 rows). Kalshi daily close. Full history (CSV)

Date	Value
2026-10-04	82.5%
2026-10-03	82.5%
2026-10-02	80.5%
2026-10-01	73.5%
2026-09-30	64.5%
2026-09-29	55.5%

The Fed hikes on Dec. 9

71%

Last tradeStale

The chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8–9 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Each meeting is its own market, so this isn’t conditional on October.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (70.5%) and Polymarket (71.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets put the chance of a December Fed hike at 71%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H25	direct contract			70.50¢	last trade	stale · 3002s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808636	direct contract			71.50¢	last trade	fresh · 249s old	Contract ↗

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-04 (126 rows). Kalshi daily close. Full history (CSV)

Date	Value
2026-10-04	70.5%
2026-10-03	70.5%
2026-10-02	71.5%
2026-10-01	69.5%
2026-09-30	71.0%
2026-09-29	74.5%

At least one more hike in 2026

75%

Last tradeStale

The chance the Fed raises rates at least once more before the end of 2026.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (76.5%) and Polymarket (73.5%). The two contracts are worded differently but settle on the same outcome.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets give about a 75% chance of at least one more Fed hike in 2026” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXFEDHIKE-2-26DEC31	direct contract			76.50¢	last trade	fresh · 255s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026	direct contract			73.50¢	last trade	stale · 387s old	Contract ↗

October hike, per Kalshi’s rate-level market

21%

Last tradeSingle venue

The same question asked a different way: the chance the target range’s upper bound is above today’s after the October meeting.

Kalshi only. Shown to compare with Kalshi’s decision contract.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXFED-26OCT-T4.00	direct contract			21.00¢	last trade	fresh · 186s old	Contract ↗