UFC 330 heads back to Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, for the first time since 2019 at the Xfinity Mobile Arena on Saturday. In the main event, pound-for-pound king Islam Makhachev looks to defend his welterweight title for the first time against the rising star from Ireland, Ian Machado Garry.
The main card gets underway at 9 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with early prelims kicking off the action at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Kalshi, Polymarket and Gemini traders are lining up almost identically across five main-card bouts, with only one closely contested market on the main card.
Here’s your full fight-by-fight breakdown through the lens of Kalshi and Polymarket, the two platforms redefining how fans engage with MMA outcomes.
Latest UFC Fight Night odds: Kalshi vs. Polymarket markets
Tap any price to trade it.Polymarket US best on 14 of 26 sidesPolymarket US best on 14 of 26 sidesPolymarket US best on 25 of 26 sidesPolymarket US best on 14 of 26 sidesNot available in Nevada
Gemini Predictions does not accept traders in your state. Kalshi and Polymarket US remain available, and the best price is recounted across those two.
None of these venues offer event contracts in Nevada. Prices are shown for reference only.
Prices include taker fees: Kalshi 0.07×P×(1-P) per contract, Polymarket US 0.10% of trade value, Gemini Predictions 0.05% of trade value. Maker orders cost less at all three. See our prediction market fees guide for the full breakdown.
Prices exclude trading fees. Fee models differ by venue, so a fee-free comparison favours whichever venue charges most. See our prediction market fees guide for the full breakdown.
Best available price outlined. Kalshi and Gemini quotes are bid-ask midpoints and Polymarket US quotes are book price, so an executable ask costs slightly more at every venue.
Priced 2026-08-14 12:02:43 EDT. Prices are indicative and change constantly. Verify on the venue before trading.
Main Event — Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (UFC Welterweight Championship)
Islam Makhachev defends his welterweight title for the first time since dethroning Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322. He walks in as the reigning pound-for-pound number one with a staggering 28-1 record and a 17-1 mark inside the Octagon. The prediction markets have him locked in as a heavy favorite at 76% on Polymarket and 75% on Kalshi.
Machado Garry earned this shot the hard way, stringing together statement wins over Carlos Prates and former champion Belal Muhammad. He enters at 17-1 overall with real length, footwork, and boxing pedigree that could theoretically keep this at range. UFC’s own fight breakdown notes that Machado Garry’s path to victory realistically hinges on avoiding the clinch and grappling exchanges, because turning this into a wrestling match plays directly into Makhachev’s hands.
Makhachev’s blend of elite Dagestani wrestling and suffocating top control has produced 16 straight wins, and the market’s “goes the distance” pricing sits right around a coin flip (56% yes on Polymarket, 56% on Kalshi), suggesting traders expect this could either get finished via grinding submission or Makhachev simply out-points Garry over 25 minutes. Notably, at least one ranked contender, Carlos Prates, has publicly predicted Garry wins by decision, showing there’s real belief in Garry’s championship rounds and cardio.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Islam Makhachev | 76% / 76¢ | 75% / 76¢ |
| Ian Machado Garry | 25% / 25¢ | 25% / 25¢ |
| Fight Goes the Distance (Yes) | 56% / 56¢ | 56% / 56¢ |
| Fight Goes the Distance (No) | 46% / 46¢ | 45% / 45¢ |
Co-Main — Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson (Strawweight Championship)
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The co-main event is a genuine 50/50-feeling grappling chess match on paper, even though the markets lean clearly toward the champion. Mackenzie Dern defends her strawweight title for the first time since claiming the vacant belt against Virna Jandiroba. She’s priced at 65% on Polymarket and 64% on Kalshi to retain.
Gillian Robertson arrives on a five-fight win streak and gets her first crack at UFC gold, sitting at 17-8 overall with a résumé built on finishing instincts and relentless scrambling from the ground. Both women are elite jiu-jitsu practitioners, Dern a multiple-time BJJ world champion and Robertson a submission specialist trained under Din Thomas, which makes the grappling exchanges the true crux of this fight rather than a striking clinic.
That grappling pedigree on both sides likely explains why the distance markets are split, with Polymarket showing 61% yes and Kalshi notably lower at 53% yes (58 cents), leaving real value questions between the two platforms on whether a finish comes via submission before the horn. Given Dern’s tendency to hunt leg locks and armbars early and Robertson’s own submission volume, either scramble could end the fight in round one, which is likely why the no-distance number still carries real weight in both books.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Dern | 65% / 65¢ | 64% / 65¢ |
| Gillian Robertson | 36% / 36¢ | 36% / 36¢ |
| Fight Goes the Distance (Yes) | 61% / 61¢ | 53% / 58¢ |
| Fight Goes the Distance (No) | 46% / 46¢ | 49% / 49¢ |
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
This is the most lopsided line on the entire main card, and the markets reflect it clearly. Abdul-Malik sits at 85% on both Polymarket and Kalshi.
Abdul-Malik is coming off his first professional loss and looking to rebound, but he still brings serious physical tools, including a massive frame and reach advantage that many believe allows him to simply walk Stoltzfus down and land something punishing in the first two rounds.
Stoltzfus, a durable veteran at 16-8, has been finished violently before, which is part of why finish probability on this fight is viewed as high across handicapper models. His counter-path is patience: eating early pressure, working into the clinch, and hunting a takedown against a middleweight whose ground game remains largely unproven at the UFC level.
Edson Barboza vs. Esteban Ribovics
This lightweight clash pits legendary UFC veteran Edson Barboza, 24-14 and now 40 years old, against surging finisher Esteban Ribovics, who sits at 15-3 with serious forward pressure and volume. The markets have flipped dramatically in Ribovics’s favor at 84% on both Polymarket and Kalshi, essentially the inverse of what Barboza’s decorated career resume might suggest at first glance.
Statistically, Ribovics has finished a much higher share of his wins by submission (33%) compared to Barboza’s 4%, while Barboza still holds a meaningfully higher knockout rate among his career wins (58% to Ribovics’s 47%). Traders are split on exactly how lopsided this should be, yet the market consensus has clearly settled on Ribovics as a heavy favorite, likely weighting recent form and Barboza’s age curve more heavily than pure historical output.
Some note Barboza retains a wrestling edge on paper, but it’s largely blunted by Ribovics’s solid takedown defense, while the striking exchanges are viewed as close to even, meaning durability and pace over 15 minutes could decide it.
Jalin Turner vs. Kaue Fernandes
Rounding out the featured betting markets is a lightweight clash between Jalin Turner and Kaue Fernandes, priced much tighter than anything else discussed above. Turner sits favored at 59% on Polymarket and 57% on Kalshi.
Turner has long been known as a rangy, powerful lightweight with dangerous kicks and length, capable of ending fights in a single exchange when he finds his distance. Fernandes represents the up-and-coming prospect.
With the gap between implied probability and market price sitting relatively tight compared to the rest of the card, this profiles as the closest true “toss-up” fight among the group discussed here, making it one worth monitoring for line movement as it leads to fight time.
Prelims and Early Prelims: What to Watch
While the main card carries the title implications, Saturday’s undercard has plenty of intrigue for anyone building a full-card betting slip. Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Alvarez is a legitimate potential fight-of-the-night candidate given both men’s finishing instincts at welterweight, while Vicente Luque vs. Tresean Gore brings a well-known veteran brawler into a live opportunity against a hungry rebuilding prospect.
On the early prelims, keep an eye on Neil Magny vs. Ramiz Brahimaj, a durability test between two experienced welterweight gatekeepers, and Jeremiah Wells vs. Myktybek Orolbai, a stylistic clash worth tracking for anyone hunting value in the underappreciated portions of the c
