Kalshi Promo Code RATE: $25 Bonus for Allen vs. Duncan at UFC Vegas 122

UFC Vegas 122 returns to Meta APEX in Las Vegas on Saturday, Oct. 10, with ranked middleweights Brendan Allen (27-7) and Christian Leroy Duncan (15-2) headlining.

The prelims start at 5 p.m. ET and the main card at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with lightweights Matheus Camilo and Jai Herbert in the co-main.

Here's your fight-by-fight breakdown through the lens of Kalshi, which offers a $25 bonus for new users who sign up with the promo code RATE.

How to Claim the Kalshi $25 Bonus for UFC Vegas 122

Here's how to use the Kalshi promo code RATE to receive a $25 bonus:

• Visit Kalshi and tap the "Sign Up" button

• Enter your identifying information, including your name, address, and phone number

• Enter the promo code RATE when prompted

• Fund your account with the minimum $10 deposit

• Make your first qualifying trade of $10 or more

• The $25 bonus is credited once the trade settles.

For additional insight, check out our complete Kalshi review.

Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan Main Event

This is a ranked middleweight main event matchup. Allen is No. 4 and 15-4 in the UFC, and Duncan is No. 10 and 8-2 in the UFC. It is a five-round fight between a grappler and a striker, and the Kalshi prices show how little separates them.

Allen is the more complete grappler. He chains takedowns into back control and has long been a submission threat. He wins by taking the fight to the mat early and often, forcing Duncan to defend positions rather than set his feet. If Allen controls the clinch and keeps Duncan's back against the fence, the later rounds could look like a long grind that ends with a choke.

Duncan is the sharper, more explosive striker. He throws heavy kicks and straight shots from range, and he is dangerous when opponents rush him. His route is to stay off the fence, stuff the first takedown attempts, and make Allen pay for entering. A first-round scare could change how Allen approaches the rest of the fight, and Duncan's cardio over five rounds will be a test.

Kalshi has Allen at 54% and Duncan at 48%, so the market is nearly a pick'em. The method prices tell a clear story. Duncan's KO/TKO contract (28%) is his biggest route, while Allen's submission contract (23%) is nearly as large as his decision price (25%). Duncan's decision price of 13% and Allen's KO/TKO price of 8% are both low.

The prices read as a clean split. Duncan's wins come mostly by knockout, and Allen's come by submission or a decision. Allen's 8% KO/TKO price shows traders don't see him winning standing up, so a grappling win is his main path. If the first takedowns fail and Duncan wins the early exchanges, the 28% KO/TKO price looks reasonable. If Allen lands early takedowns, the 23% submission price becomes an appealing way to back him.

Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert Co-Main Event

Camilo (11-3, 2-1 UFC) returns after a stoppage of Nazim Sadykhov in Baku in June. He says he plans to put on a show and get a finish in this fight. Herbert (14-6-1, 4-5-1 UFC) is coming off a first-round knockout of Manel Nallo in April, so he arrives with momentum and a record of dangerous performances.

Camilo is an aggressive Brazilian striker who looks to end fights quickly. He wins by applying pressure from the opening bell, mixing leg kicks and heavy hands, and making Herbert fight off his back foot. A fast start would also put pressure on Herbert's habit of falling behind early. His risk is overcommitting, because Herbert's counters are dangerous.

Herbert is a veteran who throws accurate combinations and has real one-shot power. His path is to stay patient in the first round, let Camilo come forward, and land counters as the Brazilian walks into range. If he can survive the early storm, Herbert's experience and cardio could matter more in rounds two and three. He has also been finished in the UFC, so he has to stay disciplined against Camilo's early aggression.

Kalshi has Camilo at 63% and Herbert at 37%. The KO/TKO prices are the story. Camilo by KO/TKO sits at 39%, the single most likely outcome of the fight, while Herbert's KO/TKO price is 16%. Decision prices are close (18% for Camilo, 16% for Herbert), and submissions are a minor factor at 7% and 2%.

Camilo's 39% KO/TKO price is more than half of his total win probability, so any bet on him is largely a bet on an early finish. Herbert's price is worth a look if you think the fight survives the first round, because his decision and KO/TKO prices together make up all of his 37%.

Prelims and Early Prelims: What to Watch

The rest of the main card has plenty of intrigue, with Lupita Godinez facing Ketlen Souza at strawweight, Andre Fili meeting Kai Kamaka III at featherweight, Julius Walker taking on Gerald Meerschaert at middleweight, and Malcolm Wellmaker squaring off with Otari Tanzilovi at bantamweight.

On the prelims, Francisco Prado faces Ismael Bonfim in a lightweight bout, and Niko Price meets Leon Shahbazyan, a matchup with real knockout potential. Felipe Franco takes on Brendson Ribeiro, while Allen Frye Jr. fights Richard Harris. The women's side adds Alice Pereira against Darya Zheleznyakova and Melissa Gatto against Ernesta Kareckaite, rounding out a card where the early fights could move prices before the main event begins.

Trading on UFC Fight Night at Kalshi

Kalshi is an exchange where users trade with one another as opposed to wagering at a sportsbook that takes the other side of your bet. A live order book sets contract prices, and they move as buyers and sellers act.

Each contract trades from $0.01 to $0.99. If the outcome happens, it pays $1.00. If it doesn’t, it pays $0.00. Prices evolve throughout the fight card. You can hedge your bets, take profits, and even live trade based on new developments.

Trading UFC prediction markets carries real financial risk. Probabilities are not guarantees of how a market will resolve. Losing contracts settle at zero, so you can lose your entire position. Trade responsibly, and only with funds you can afford to lose.