Google Blocks Prediction Market Ads in Fifth State as Legal Pressure Builds

Google’s prediction market advertising footprint is shrinking as the industry’s state-by-state legal fight grows.

The company now prohibits prediction market ads targeting users in five states: 

• Connecticut

• Michigan

• Nevada

• New York

• Ohio

Connecticut became the latest addition last week, when Google’s restriction took effect.

The policy creates another obstacle for exchanges and brokers trying to acquire customers while fighting state gambling regulators. Federal registration may qualify an operator to apply for Google’s advertising program, but it does not override the company’s geographic exclusions.

Connecticut becomes the fifth exclusion

The five-state list developed over several months, rather than through a single nationwide policy change.

• Nevada was excluded when Google opened its advertising program to eligible prediction market operators in January.

• Ohio was added in June.

• Michigan and New York followed in July.

• Connecticut joined this month.

Michigan offers an immediate example of why the advertising restrictions matter. The state asked a judge to hold Kalshi in contempt this week, alleging that sports-related promotional emails and targeted ads continued reaching Michigan residents after a Sept. 1 injunction prohibited both sports event contracts and their marketing. A Nov. 24 hearing will address whether Kalshi violated the order.

Google’s Connecticut notice said advertising for “prediction markets contracts and related products” is prohibited in the state. It does not limit the restriction to sports contracts or identify individual companies.

The timing follows a broader crackdown in Connecticut. In September, state regulators issued cease-and-desist orders to nine prediction market platforms and nearly 30 subpoenas to gaming service providers and media companies, including Google. 

Google’s policy notice does not state why it added the restriction, so it should not be treated as an admission that the subpoenas prompted the change.

Federal approval is not enough to advertise

Google began allowing eligible prediction market advertising on Jan. 21, subject to certification. Its framework covers Commodity Futures Trading Commission-authorized designated contract markets whose primary business is listing event contracts, along with qualifying National Futures Association-authorized brokerages providing access to those exchanges.

Advertisers must obtain Google’s approval, comply with applicable laws and target locations eligible under the policy. Google expressly places responsibility on advertisers to understand and follow local requirements.

The restriction is an advertising policy, not a court ruling about whether residents may trade. It also should not be read as a ban on every form of promotion or a removal of prediction market websites from Google Search. The announced change concerns Google Ads targeting.

Another pressure point in the state legal fight

The exclusions overlap with states challenging prediction markets’ claims that federal commodities regulation displaces state gambling laws. 

Michigan and Nevada, in particular, have secured restrictions on sports event trading, while their enforcement fights have extended to compliance and marketing.

Google is not deciding that underlying jurisdictional dispute. But its policy shows how the legal uncertainty can affect operators before a final national answer arrives: access to a major paid advertising channel can narrow even while litigation continues.

The bans are a growing list of exclusions, with Connecticut the latest addition, and another sign that federal authorization does not guarantee a uniform national market for prediction market advertising.