The snapshot from Oct 26, 10:32 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-26T1134/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 26, 11:34 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
50%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,457.99) at the end of the window closing 11:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 48% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 50% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT261145-45 | direct contract | 49.0¢ | 50.0¢ | 49.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 45s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 48.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
53%Last tradeStale
The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,331.18) at the end of the window closing 11:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 53% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT261145-45 | direct contract | 53.00¢ | last trade | stale · 63s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 52.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
62%Last tradeStale
The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2986) at the end of the window closing 11:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 62% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT261145-45 | direct contract | 62.00¢ | last trade | stale · 87s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 46.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
59%Last tradeStale
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0778525) at the end of the window closing 11:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 59% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT261145-45 | direct contract | 59.00¢ | last trade | stale · 126s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 47.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
59%The chance Solana settles above its target price (102.0997) at the end of the window closing 11:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 44% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 59% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT261145-45 | direct contract | 58.0¢ | 59.0¢ | 58.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 45s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 44.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
41%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.6103) at the end of the window closing 11:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 41% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT261145-45 | direct contract | 40.0¢ | 42.0¢ | 41.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 42s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
68%Last tradeStale
The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (78.2296) at the end of the window closing 11:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 68% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT261145-45 | direct contract | 68.00¢ | last trade | stale · 101s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
55%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,252.151) at the end of the window closing 11:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 55% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT261145-45 | direct contract | 54.0¢ | 55.0¢ | 54.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 58s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
51%Last tradeStale
The chance BNB settles above its target price (744.18) at the end of the window closing 11:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 51% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT261145-45 | direct contract | 51.00¢ | last trade | stale · 88s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
13%Crypto contracts made up 13.3% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 26, 2026: about $186 million of the $1400 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 26 to Oct 25, 2026, up 17% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).