The snapshot from Oct 26, 11:34 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-26T1232/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 26, 12:32 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
33%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (79,874.87) at the end of the window closing 12:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 46% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 33% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT261245-45 | direct contract | 32.0¢ | 33.0¢ | 32.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 43s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 46.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
30%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,312.39) at the end of the window closing 12:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 48% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 30% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT261245-45 | direct contract | 29.0¢ | 31.0¢ | 30.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 43s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 48.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
–Single venue
XRP’s 15-minute window closing 12:30 PM ET (target price 1.2927) has closed, and Kalshi hasn’t settled it yet. The next window isn’t in our feed yet, so there’s no current price.
Kalshi settles each window on the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index. A closed window shows its result only once Kalshi has settled it, never one read from a price.
Quote type: Kalshi settlement. Cited as: “XRP’s 15-minute window closing 12:30 PM ET has closed, and Kalshi hasn’t settled it yet” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT261230-30 | direct contract | kalshi settlement | closed | Contract ↗ |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
28%Last tradeStale
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0772526) at the end of the window closing 12:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 28% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT261245-45 | direct contract | 28.00¢ | last trade | stale · 102s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 41.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
–Single venue
Solana’s 15-minute window closing 12:30 PM ET (target price 101.5707) has closed, and Kalshi hasn’t settled it yet. The next window isn’t in our feed yet, so there’s no current price.
Kalshi settles each window on the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index. A closed window shows its result only once Kalshi has settled it, never one read from a price.
Quote type: Kalshi settlement. Cited as: “Solana’s 15-minute window closing 12:30 PM ET has closed, and Kalshi hasn’t settled it yet” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT261230-30 | direct contract | kalshi settlement | closed | Contract ↗ |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
31%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.5201) at the end of the window closing 12:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 31% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT261245-45 | direct contract | 31.00¢ | last trade | stale · 102s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
19%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (78.0696) at the end of the window closing 12:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 42% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 19% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT261245-45 | direct contract | 18.0¢ | 19.0¢ | 18.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 21s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 42.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
16%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,233.3677) at the end of the window closing 12:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 16% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT261245-45 | direct contract | 16.00¢ | last trade | stale · 87s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
37%Last tradeStale
The chance BNB settles above its target price (740.61) at the end of the window closing 12:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 37% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT261245-45 | direct contract | 37.00¢ | last trade | stale · 124s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
14%Crypto contracts made up 13.6% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 26, 2026: about $188 million of the $1379 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 26 to Oct 25, 2026, up 17% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).