The snapshot from Oct 26, 9:41 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-26T1032/.

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Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 26, 10:32 AM ET

A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records

Data observedOct 26, 10:32 AM ET

Live page updatedOct 26, 10:32 AM ET

Permanent URLhttps://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-26T1032

DownloadAll figures and contracts (CSV)
15-minute markets, window closing 10:45 AM ET (CSV)

Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up

37%

Last tradeStale

The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (79,751.52) at the end of the window closing 10:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 37% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXBTC15M-26OCT261045-45	direct contract			37.00¢	last trade	stale · 66s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			50.50¢	last trade	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up

41%

The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,310.82) at the end of the window closing 10:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 51% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 41% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXETH15M-26OCT261045-45	direct contract	40.0¢	41.0¢	40.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 51s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			51.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

XRP finishes the 15-minute window up

32%

The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2922) at the end of the window closing 10:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 44% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 32% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXXRP15M-26OCT261045-45	direct contract	31.0¢	32.0¢	31.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 51s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			44.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up

40%

The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0772254) at the end of the window closing 10:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 40% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXDOGE15M-26OCT261045-45	direct contract	39.0¢	40.0¢	39.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 43s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			50.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Solana finishes the 15-minute window up

40%

Last tradeStale

The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.2557) at the end of the window closing 10:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 40% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXSOL15M-26OCT261045-45	direct contract			40.00¢	last trade	stale · 83s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			54.00¢	last trade	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up

34%

Single venue

The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.5637) at the end of the window closing 10:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 34% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXNEAR15M-26OCT261045-45	direct contract	33.0¢	34.0¢	33.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 51s old	Contract ↗

Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up

38%

The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (77.3814) at the end of the window closing 10:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 38% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXHYPE15M-26OCT261045-45	direct contract	37.0¢	39.0¢	38.00¢	midpoint	fresh · 51s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			51.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up

34%

Single venue

The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,231.3639) at the end of the window closing 10:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 34% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXZEC15M-26OCT261045-45	direct contract	33.0¢	34.0¢	33.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 51s old	Contract ↗

BNB finishes the 15-minute window up

38%

The chance BNB settles above its target price (739.99) at the end of the window closing 10:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 38% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXBNB15M-26OCT261045-45	direct contract	37.0¢	39.0¢	38.00¢	midpoint	fresh · 51s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			49.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume

13%

Crypto contracts made up 13.0% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 26, 2026: about $183 million of the $1411 million traded.

Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

DeFi Rate market data

Prediction-market volume by venue and categoryEndpoint /v1/partner/volumeDeFi Rate’s licensed data feed.

Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days

$5.1B

Dollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 26 to Oct 25, 2026, up 17% on the prior 30 days.

Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

DeFi Rate market data

Prediction-market volume by venue and categoryEndpoint /v1/partner/volumeDeFi Rate’s licensed data feed.