The snapshot from Oct 26, 8:56 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-26T0941/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 26, 9:41 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
25%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (79,804.48) at the end of the window closing 9:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 55% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 25% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT260945-45 | direct contract | 24.0¢ | 25.0¢ | 24.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 32s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 54.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
40%Last tradeStale
The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,310.09) at the end of the window closing 9:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 40% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT260945-45 | direct contract | 40.00¢ | last trade | stale · 63s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 65.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
38%Last trade
The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2888) at the end of the window closing 9:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 38% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT260945-45 | direct contract | 38.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 51s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 33.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
54%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0769327) at the end of the window closing 9:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 30% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 54% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT260945-45 | direct contract | 53.0¢ | 54.0¢ | 53.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 32s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 30.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
37%Last tradeStale
The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.0148) at the end of the window closing 9:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 37% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT260945-45 | direct contract | 37.00¢ | last trade | stale · 63s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 37.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
99%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.5094) at the end of the window closing 9:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT260945-45 | direct contract | 99.00¢ | last trade | stale · 117s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
69%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (77.4125) at the end of the window closing 9:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 28% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 69% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT260945-45 | direct contract | 67.0¢ | 71.0¢ | 69.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 54s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 28.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
91%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,219.2336) at the end of the window closing 9:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 91% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT260945-45 | direct contract | 91.00¢ | last trade | stale · 62s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
25%Last tradeStale
The chance BNB settles above its target price (740.01) at the end of the window closing 9:45 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 25% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT260945-45 | direct contract | 25.00¢ | last trade | stale · 87s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 10.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
13%Crypto contracts made up 12.8% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 26, 2026: about $182 million of the $1426 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 26 to Oct 25, 2026, up 17% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).