The snapshot from Oct 26, 7:46 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-26T0856/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 26, 8:56 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
66%Last tradeStale
The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,216.14) at the end of the window closing 9:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 66% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT260900-00 | direct contract | 66.00¢ | last trade | stale · 60s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 60.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
31%Last trade
The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,322.78) at the end of the window closing 9:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 31% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT260900-00 | direct contract | 31.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 43s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 44.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
82%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2955) at the end of the window closing 9:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 74% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 82% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT260900-00 | direct contract | 81.0¢ | 82.0¢ | 81.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 60s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 73.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
94%Last tradeStale
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0771821) at the end of the window closing 9:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 94% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT260900-00 | direct contract | 94.30¢ | last trade | stale · 109s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 58.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
85%Last tradeStale
The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.4755) at the end of the window closing 9:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 85% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT260900-00 | direct contract | 85.00¢ | last trade | stale · 141s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 67.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
43%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.5684) at the end of the window closing 9:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 43% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT260900-00 | direct contract | 43.00¢ | last trade | stale · 98s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
20%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (77.3839) at the end of the window closing 9:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 56% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 20% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT260900-00 | direct contract | 19.0¢ | 20.0¢ | 19.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 60s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 55.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
60%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,237.213) at the end of the window closing 9:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 60% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT260900-00 | direct contract | 60.00¢ | last trade | stale · 122s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
72%The chance BNB settles above its target price (740.39) at the end of the window closing 9:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 61% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 72% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT260900-00 | direct contract | 71.0¢ | 72.0¢ | 71.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 60s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 61.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
13%Crypto contracts made up 12.7% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 26, 2026: about $181 million of the $1424 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 26 to Oct 25, 2026, up 17% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).