The snapshot from Oct 26, 1:22 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-26T0209/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 26, 2:09 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
3%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,131.19) at the end of the window closing 2:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 32% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 3% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT260215-15 | direct contract | 2.7¢ | 2.8¢ | 2.75¢ | midpoint | fresh · 43s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 31.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
1%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,323.5) at the end of the window closing 2:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 34% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT260215-15 | direct contract | 1.2¢ | 1.3¢ | 1.25¢ | midpoint | fresh · 43s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 34.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
4%Last tradeStale
The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2901) at the end of the window closing 2:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 4% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT260215-15 | direct contract | 3.90¢ | last trade | stale · 70s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 42.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
2%Last tradeStale
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0771757) at the end of the window closing 2:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 2% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT260215-15 | direct contract | 1.50¢ | last trade | stale · 73s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 26.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
1%The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.29) at the end of the window closing 2:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 30% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT260215-15 | direct contract | 1.3¢ | 1.4¢ | 1.35¢ | midpoint | fresh · 43s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 29.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
1%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.5107) at the end of the window closing 2:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT260215-15 | direct contract | 1.2¢ | 1.3¢ | 1.25¢ | midpoint | fresh · 43s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
6%Last tradeStale
The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (76.7889) at the end of the window closing 2:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 6% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT260215-15 | direct contract | 6.00¢ | last trade | stale · 69s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 74.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
2%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,215.465) at the end of the window closing 2:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 2% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT260215-15 | direct contract | 1.1¢ | 1.9¢ | 1.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 43s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
3%The chance BNB settles above its target price (740.9) at the end of the window closing 2:15 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 46% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 3% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT260215-15 | direct contract | 3.0¢ | 3.1¢ | 3.05¢ | midpoint | fresh · 29s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 46.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
12%Crypto contracts made up 12.4% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 26, 2026: about $178 million of the $1440 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 26 to Oct 25, 2026, up 17% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).