The snapshot from Oct 26, 2:09 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-26T0316/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 26, 3:16 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
46%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,000.58) at the end of the window closing 3:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 46% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT260330-30 | direct contract | 45.0¢ | 46.0¢ | 45.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 25s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
47%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,316.68) at the end of the window closing 3:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 47% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT260330-30 | direct contract | 46.0¢ | 47.0¢ | 46.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 25s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
–Single venue
XRP’s 15-minute window closing 3:15 AM ET (target price 1.2861) settled Down on Kalshi. The next window isn’t in our feed yet, so there’s no current price.
Kalshi settles each window on the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index. A closed window shows its result only once Kalshi has settled it, never one read from a price.
Quote type: Kalshi settlement. Cited as: “XRP’s 15-minute window closing 3:15 AM ET settled Down on Kalshi” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT260315-15 | direct contract | kalshi settlement | settled | Contract ↗ |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
47%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0768057) at the end of the window closing 3:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 47% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT260330-30 | direct contract | 46.0¢ | 47.0¢ | 46.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 25s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
47%The chance Solana settles above its target price (100.8243) at the end of the window closing 3:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 56% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 47% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT260330-30 | direct contract | 46.0¢ | 47.0¢ | 46.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 25s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 56.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
54%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.4698) at the end of the window closing 3:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 54% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT260330-30 | direct contract | 53.0¢ | 54.0¢ | 53.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 25s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
42%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (76.4371) at the end of the window closing 3:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 42% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT260330-30 | direct contract | 41.0¢ | 42.0¢ | 41.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 25s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
54%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,207.1507) at the end of the window closing 3:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 54% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT260330-30 | direct contract | 53.0¢ | 55.0¢ | 54.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 5s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
–Single venue
BNB’s 15-minute window closing 3:15 AM ET (target price 738.12) has closed, and Kalshi hasn’t settled it yet. The next window isn’t in our feed yet, so there’s no current price.
Kalshi settles each window on the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index. A closed window shows its result only once Kalshi has settled it, never one read from a price.
Quote type: Kalshi settlement. Cited as: “BNB’s 15-minute window closing 3:15 AM ET has closed, and Kalshi hasn’t settled it yet” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT260315-15 | direct contract | kalshi settlement | closed | Contract ↗ |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
12%Crypto contracts made up 12.4% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 26, 2026: about $178 million of the $1433 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 26 to Oct 25, 2026, up 17% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).