The snapshot from Oct 26, 12:33 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-26T0122/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 26, 1:22 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
22%Last tradeStale
The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,022.02) at the end of the window closing 1:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 22% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT260130-30 | direct contract | 22.00¢ | last trade | stale · 64s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 43.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
14%Last tradeStale
The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,320.36) at the end of the window closing 1:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 14% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT260130-30 | direct contract | 14.00¢ | last trade | stale · 65s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 16.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
14%Last tradeStale
The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2887) at the end of the window closing 1:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 14% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT260130-30 | direct contract | 14.00¢ | last trade | stale · 66s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 41.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
23%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0770418) at the end of the window closing 1:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 40% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 23% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT260130-30 | direct contract | 22.0¢ | 24.0¢ | 23.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 40s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 40.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
20%Last tradeStale
The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.2717) at the end of the window closing 1:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 20% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT260130-30 | direct contract | 20.00¢ | last trade | stale · 66s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 45.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
17%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.5143) at the end of the window closing 1:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 17% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT260130-30 | direct contract | 17.00¢ | last trade | stale · 70s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
29%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (76.1888) at the end of the window closing 1:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 29% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT260130-30 | direct contract | 28.0¢ | 29.0¢ | 28.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 40s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 52.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
17%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,204.9554) at the end of the window closing 1:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 17% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT260130-30 | direct contract | 17.00¢ | last trade | stale · 87s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
22%Last tradeStale
The chance BNB settles above its target price (741.77) at the end of the window closing 1:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 22% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT260130-30 | direct contract | 22.00¢ | last trade | stale · 66s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
12%Crypto contracts made up 12.4% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 26, 2026: about $178 million of the $1440 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 26 to Oct 25, 2026, up 17% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).