The snapshot from Oct 25, 4:26 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-25T1732/.

Permanent snapshot · never updated

Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 25, 5:32 PM ET

A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records

Data observedOct 25, 5:32 PM ET

Live page updatedOct 25, 5:32 PM ET

Permanent URLhttps://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-25T1732

DownloadAll figures and contracts (CSV)
15-minute markets, window closing 5:45 PM ET (CSV)

Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up

43%

Last tradeStale

The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,410.51) at the end of the window closing 5:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 43% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXBTC15M-26OCT251745-45	direct contract			43.00¢	last trade	stale · 93s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			30.50¢	last trade	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up

37%

The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,339.97) at the end of the window closing 5:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 53% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 37% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXETH15M-26OCT251745-45	direct contract	36.0¢	37.0¢	36.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 51s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			53.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

XRP finishes the 15-minute window up

46%

The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2975) at the end of the window closing 5:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 46% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXXRP15M-26OCT251745-45	direct contract	45.0¢	46.0¢	45.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 25s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			50.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up

43%

The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0771077) at the end of the window closing 5:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 43% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXDOGE15M-26OCT251745-45	direct contract	42.0¢	44.0¢	43.00¢	midpoint	fresh · 19s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			50.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Solana finishes the 15-minute window up

35%

The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.4628) at the end of the window closing 5:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 35% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXSOL15M-26OCT251745-45	direct contract	34.0¢	36.0¢	35.00¢	midpoint	fresh · 25s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			50.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up

66%

Last tradeSingle venueStale

The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.5449) at the end of the window closing 5:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 66% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXNEAR15M-26OCT251745-45	direct contract			66.00¢	last trade	stale · 91s old	Contract ↗

Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up

25%

The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (76.8023) at the end of the window closing 5:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 51% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 25% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXHYPE15M-26OCT251745-45	direct contract	23.0¢	26.0¢	24.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 19s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			51.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up

31%

Single venue

The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,204.9041) at the end of the window closing 5:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 31% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXZEC15M-26OCT251745-45	direct contract	30.0¢	32.0¢	31.00¢	midpoint	fresh · 19s old	Contract ↗

BNB finishes the 15-minute window up

42%

Last tradeStale

The chance BNB settles above its target price (739.55) at the end of the window closing 5:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 42% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXBNB15M-26OCT251745-45	direct contract			42.00¢	last trade	stale · 95s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			44.50¢	last trade	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume

11%

Crypto contracts made up 11.5% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 25, 2026: about $169 million of the $1478 million traded.

Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

DeFi Rate market data

Prediction-market volume by venue and categoryEndpoint /v1/partner/volumeDeFi Rate’s licensed data feed.

Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days

$5.0B

Dollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 25 to Oct 24, 2026, up 16% on the prior 30 days.

Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

DeFi Rate market data

Prediction-market volume by venue and categoryEndpoint /v1/partner/volumeDeFi Rate’s licensed data feed.