The snapshot from Oct 25, 5:32 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-25T1835/.

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Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 25, 6:35 PM ET

A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records

Data observedOct 25, 6:35 PM ET

Live page updatedOct 25, 6:35 PM ET

Permanent URLhttps://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-25T1835

DownloadAll figures and contracts (CSV)
15-minute markets, window closing 6:45 PM ET (CSV)

Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up

80%

The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,405.84) at the end of the window closing 6:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 66% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 80% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXBTC15M-26OCT251845-45	direct contract	79.0¢	80.0¢	79.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 52s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			65.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up

75%

The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,341.7) at the end of the window closing 6:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 64% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 75% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXETH15M-26OCT251845-45	direct contract	74.0¢	75.0¢	74.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 52s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			64.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

XRP finishes the 15-minute window up

69%

The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2991) at the end of the window closing 6:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 59% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 69% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXXRP15M-26OCT251845-45	direct contract	68.0¢	69.0¢	68.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 11s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			59.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up

83%

The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0770902) at the end of the window closing 6:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 68% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 83% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXDOGE15M-26OCT251845-45	direct contract	82.0¢	83.0¢	82.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 48s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			68.00¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Solana finishes the 15-minute window up

66%

Last tradeStale

The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.569) at the end of the window closing 6:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 66% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXSOL15M-26OCT251845-45	direct contract			66.00¢	last trade	stale · 129s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			66.00¢	last trade	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up

72%

Last tradeSingle venueStale

The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.5911) at the end of the window closing 6:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 72% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXNEAR15M-26OCT251845-45	direct contract			72.00¢	last trade	stale · 171s old	Contract ↗

Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up

78%

The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (76.7854) at the end of the window closing 6:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 66% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 78% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXHYPE15M-26OCT251845-45	direct contract	77.0¢	78.0¢	77.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 48s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			65.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up

69%

Last tradeSingle venueStale

The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,218.1329) at the end of the window closing 6:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 69% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXZEC15M-26OCT251845-45	direct contract			69.00¢	last trade	stale · 170s old	Contract ↗

BNB finishes the 15-minute window up

91%

The chance BNB settles above its target price (740.06) at the end of the window closing 6:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 72% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 91% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXBNB15M-26OCT251845-45	direct contract	90.3¢	90.8¢	90.55¢	midpoint	fresh · 48s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			72.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume

11%

Crypto contracts made up 11.5% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 25, 2026: about $169 million of the $1478 million traded.

Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

DeFi Rate market data

Prediction-market volume by venue and categoryEndpoint /v1/partner/volumeDeFi Rate’s licensed data feed.

Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days

$5.0B

Dollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 25 to Oct 24, 2026, up 16% on the prior 30 days.

Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

DeFi Rate market data

Prediction-market volume by venue and categoryEndpoint /v1/partner/volumeDeFi Rate’s licensed data feed.