The snapshot from Oct 25, 3:29 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-25T1626/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 25, 4:26 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
6%Last tradeStale
The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,508.88) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 6% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT251630-30 | direct contract | 6.00¢ | last trade | stale · 82s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 7.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
20%Last tradeStale
The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,349.38) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 20% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT251630-30 | direct contract | 20.00¢ | last trade | stale · 88s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 47.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
36%Last tradeStale
The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2995) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 36% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT251630-30 | direct contract | 36.00¢ | last trade | stale · 80s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 60.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
63%Last tradeStale
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0772159) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 63% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT251630-30 | direct contract | 63.00¢ | last trade | stale · 79s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 79.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
28%Last tradeStale
The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.6977) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 28% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT251630-30 | direct contract | 28.00¢ | last trade | stale · 80s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
16%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.5728) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 16% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT251630-30 | direct contract | 16.00¢ | last trade | stale · 79s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
34%Last tradeStale
The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (77.1631) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 34% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT251630-30 | direct contract | 34.00¢ | last trade | stale · 128s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
26%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,218.6838) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 26% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT251630-30 | direct contract | 26.00¢ | last trade | stale · 79s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
10%The chance BNB settles above its target price (741.35) at the end of the window closing 4:30 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 10% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 10% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT251630-30 | direct contract | 9.2¢ | 9.8¢ | 9.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 47s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 10.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
12%Crypto contracts made up 11.9% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 25, 2026: about $170 million of the $1423 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 25 to Oct 24, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).