The snapshot from Oct 25, 11:51 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-25T1251/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 25, 12:51 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
69%Last trade
The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,497.23) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 69% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT251300-00 | direct contract | 69.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 42s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 57.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
66%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,341.16) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 70% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 66% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT251300-00 | direct contract | 65.0¢ | 66.0¢ | 65.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 52s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 70.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
41%Last tradeStale
The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2977) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 41% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT251300-00 | direct contract | 41.00¢ | last trade | stale · 87s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 62.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
56%Last tradeStale
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.076983) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 56% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT251300-00 | direct contract | 56.00¢ | last trade | stale · 86s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 57.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
51%Last tradeStale
The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.2983) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 51% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT251300-00 | direct contract | 51.00¢ | last trade | stale · 89s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 55.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
48%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.5939) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 48% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT251300-00 | direct contract | 48.00¢ | last trade | stale · 131s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
61%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (76.9331) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 60% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 61% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT251300-00 | direct contract | 60.0¢ | 61.0¢ | 60.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 33s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 59.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
59%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,209.387) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 59% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT251300-00 | direct contract | 59.00¢ | last trade | stale · 130s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
58%Last tradeStale
The chance BNB settles above its target price (740.3) at the end of the window closing 1:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 58% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT251300-00 | direct contract | 58.00¢ | last trade | stale · 148s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 59.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
12%Crypto contracts made up 12.2% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 25, 2026: about $171 million of the $1399 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 25 to Oct 24, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).