The snapshot from Oct 25, 12:51 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-25T1354/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 25, 1:54 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
23%Last tradeStale
The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,701.34) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 23% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT251400-00 | direct contract | 23.00¢ | last trade | stale · 61s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 41.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
23%Last tradeStale
The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,356.36) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 23% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT251400-00 | direct contract | 23.00¢ | last trade | stale · 134s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 16.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
30%Last tradeStale
The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.3046) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 30% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT251400-00 | direct contract | 30.00¢ | last trade | stale · 159s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 30.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
17%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0773543) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 28% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 17% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT251400-00 | direct contract | 16.0¢ | 17.0¢ | 16.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 40s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 27.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
8%Last tradeStale
The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.8762) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 8% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT251400-00 | direct contract | 8.40¢ | last trade | stale · 107s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 21.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
10%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.6701) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 10% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT251400-00 | direct contract | 9.90¢ | last trade | stale · 107s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
39%Last tradeStale
The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (77.2569) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 39% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT251400-00 | direct contract | 39.00¢ | last trade | stale · 163s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 30.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
15%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,235.5532) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 15% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT251400-00 | direct contract | 15.00¢ | last trade | stale · 106s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
72%The chance BNB settles above its target price (741.95) at the end of the window closing 2:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 70% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 72% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT251400-00 | direct contract | 71.0¢ | 73.0¢ | 72.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 48s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 70.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
12%Crypto contracts made up 12.0% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 25, 2026: about $169 million of the $1399 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 25 to Oct 24, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).