The snapshot from Oct 25, 10:39 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-25T1151/.

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Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 25, 11:51 AM ET

A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records

Data observedOct 25, 11:51 AM ET

Live page updatedOct 25, 11:51 AM ET

Permanent URLhttps://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-25T1151

DownloadAll figures and contracts (CSV)
15-minute markets, window closing 12:00 PM ET (CSV)

Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up

66%

The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,564.23) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 52% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 66% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXBTC15M-26OCT251200-00	direct contract	65.0¢	66.0¢	65.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 46s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			52.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up

43%

The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,343.93) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 44% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 43% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXETH15M-26OCT251200-00	direct contract	42.0¢	44.0¢	43.00¢	midpoint	fresh · 46s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			43.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

XRP finishes the 15-minute window up

45%

The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2996) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 44% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 45% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXXRP15M-26OCT251200-00	direct contract	44.0¢	45.0¢	44.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 46s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			44.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up

72%

The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0771454) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 55% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 72% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXDOGE15M-26OCT251200-00	direct contract	71.0¢	72.0¢	71.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 20s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			54.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Solana finishes the 15-minute window up

58%

Last tradeStale

The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.566) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 58% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXSOL15M-26OCT251200-00	direct contract			58.00¢	last trade	stale · 72s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			44.50¢	last trade	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up

96%

Last tradeSingle venueStale

The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.5109) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 96% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXNEAR15M-26OCT251200-00	direct contract			96.00¢	last trade	stale · 71s old	Contract ↗

Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up

26%

The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (77.3102) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 14% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 26% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXHYPE15M-26OCT251200-00	direct contract	24.0¢	27.0¢	25.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 20s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			13.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up

60%

Last tradeSingle venueStale

The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,213.0057) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 60% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXZEC15M-26OCT251200-00	direct contract			60.00¢	last trade	stale · 73s old	Contract ↗

BNB finishes the 15-minute window up

48%

The chance BNB settles above its target price (741.66) at the end of the window closing 12:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.

Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 44% up.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 48% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXBNB15M-26OCT251200-00	direct contract	47.0¢	48.0¢	47.50¢	midpoint	fresh · 26s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket		reference only			43.50¢	midpoint	fresh	Not averaged: different target and settlement source.

Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume

12%

Crypto contracts made up 12.4% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 25, 2026: about $174 million of the $1400 million traded.

Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

DeFi Rate market data

Prediction-market volume by venue and categoryEndpoint /v1/partner/volumeDeFi Rate’s licensed data feed.

Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days

$5.1B

Dollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 25 to Oct 24, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.

Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

DeFi Rate market data

Prediction-market volume by venue and categoryEndpoint /v1/partner/volumeDeFi Rate’s licensed data feed.