The snapshot from Oct 25, 7:12 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-25T0823/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 25, 8:23 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
19%Last tradeStale
The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,373.55) at the end of the window closing 8:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 19% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT250830-30 | direct contract | 19.00¢ | last trade | stale · 69s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 39.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
65%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,331.2) at the end of the window closing 8:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 38% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 65% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT250830-30 | direct contract | 64.0¢ | 65.0¢ | 64.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 28s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 37.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
90%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.295) at the end of the window closing 8:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 70% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 90% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT250830-30 | direct contract | 89.0¢ | 90.0¢ | 89.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 28s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 70.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
87%Last tradeStale
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0765235) at the end of the window closing 8:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 87% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT250830-30 | direct contract | 87.00¢ | last trade | stale · 89s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 90.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
72%The chance Solana settles above its target price (100.8568) at the end of the window closing 8:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 38% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 72% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT250830-30 | direct contract | 71.0¢ | 72.0¢ | 71.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 28s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 38.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
49%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.4697) at the end of the window closing 8:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 49% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT250830-30 | direct contract | 48.0¢ | 50.0¢ | 49.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 59s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
84%Last tradeStale
The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (76.3547) at the end of the window closing 8:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 84% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT250830-30 | direct contract | 84.00¢ | last trade | stale · 89s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 77.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
26%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,211.9576) at the end of the window closing 8:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 26% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT250830-30 | direct contract | 25.0¢ | 26.0¢ | 25.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 28s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
64%Last tradeStale
The chance BNB settles above its target price (740.67) at the end of the window closing 8:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 64% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT250830-30 | direct contract | 64.00¢ | last trade | stale · 89s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 67.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
13%Crypto contracts made up 12.8% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 25, 2026: about $178 million of the $1391 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 25 to Oct 24, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).