The snapshot from Oct 25, 8:23 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-25T0925/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 25, 9:25 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
7%Last tradeStale
The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,316.34) at the end of the window closing 9:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 7% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT250930-30 | direct contract | 7.40¢ | last trade | stale · 65s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 45.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
4%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,332.51) at the end of the window closing 9:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 24% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 4% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT250930-30 | direct contract | 3.5¢ | 3.7¢ | 3.60¢ | midpoint | fresh · 20s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 24.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
16%Last tradeStale
The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2956) at the end of the window closing 9:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 16% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT250930-30 | direct contract | 16.00¢ | last trade | stale · 81s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 23.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
62%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0766739) at the end of the window closing 9:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 32% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 62% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT250930-30 | direct contract | 61.0¢ | 62.0¢ | 61.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 40s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 32.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
17%Last tradeStale
The chance Solana settles above its target price (100.9253) at the end of the window closing 9:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 17% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT250930-30 | direct contract | 17.00¢ | last trade | stale · 61s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 28.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
18%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.4617) at the end of the window closing 9:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 18% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT250930-30 | direct contract | 18.00¢ | last trade | stale · 80s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
2%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (76.6289) at the end of the window closing 9:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 11% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 2% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT250930-30 | direct contract | 1.6¢ | 1.8¢ | 1.70¢ | midpoint | fresh · 18s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 11.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
10%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,212.4776) at the end of the window closing 9:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 10% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT250930-30 | direct contract | 10.00¢ | last trade | stale · 80s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
17%The chance BNB settles above its target price (737.81) at the end of the window closing 9:30 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 22% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 17% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT250930-30 | direct contract | 16.0¢ | 17.0¢ | 16.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 56s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 21.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
13%Crypto contracts made up 12.6% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 25, 2026: about $177 million of the $1405 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 25 to Oct 24, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).