The snapshot from Oct 25, 2:56 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-25T0348/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 25, 3:48 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
48%Last tradeStale
The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,597.44) at the end of the window closing 4:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 48% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT250400-00 | direct contract | 48.00¢ | last trade | stale · 90s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
62%Last tradeStale
The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,346.49) at the end of the window closing 4:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 62% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT250400-00 | direct contract | 62.00¢ | last trade | stale · 86s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 57.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
32%Last tradeStale
The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.303) at the end of the window closing 4:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 32% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT250400-00 | direct contract | 32.00¢ | last trade | stale · 64s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
43%Last tradeStale
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0770122) at the end of the window closing 4:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 43% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT250400-00 | direct contract | 43.00¢ | last trade | stale · 90s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
28%The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.7317) at the end of the window closing 4:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 28% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT250400-00 | direct contract | 27.0¢ | 28.0¢ | 27.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 41s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
29%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.4471) at the end of the window closing 4:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 29% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT250400-00 | direct contract | 28.0¢ | 29.0¢ | 28.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 43s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
38%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (76.1514) at the end of the window closing 4:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 38% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT250400-00 | direct contract | 37.0¢ | 38.0¢ | 37.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 60s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
40%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,198.1777) at the end of the window closing 4:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 40% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT250400-00 | direct contract | 40.00¢ | last trade | stale · 99s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
58%Last tradeStale
The chance BNB settles above its target price (744.39) at the end of the window closing 4:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 58% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT250400-00 | direct contract | 58.00¢ | last trade | stale · 68s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 42.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
13%Crypto contracts made up 13.0% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 25, 2026: about $183 million of the $1409 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 25 to Oct 24, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).