The snapshot from Oct 25, 3:48 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-25T0452/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 25, 4:52 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
13%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,387.54) at the end of the window closing 5:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 56% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 13% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT250500-00 | direct contract | 12.0¢ | 13.0¢ | 12.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 44s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 55.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
12%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,337.42) at the end of the window closing 5:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 38% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 12% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT250500-00 | direct contract | 11.0¢ | 12.0¢ | 11.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 54s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 37.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
15%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2977) at the end of the window closing 5:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 38% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 15% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT250500-00 | direct contract | 14.0¢ | 15.0¢ | 14.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 4s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 38.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
8%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0765387) at the end of the window closing 5:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 44% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 8% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT250500-00 | direct contract | 8.3¢ | 8.6¢ | 8.45¢ | midpoint | fresh · 44s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 44.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
10%Last tradeStale
The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.075) at the end of the window closing 5:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 10% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT250500-00 | direct contract | 10.00¢ | last trade | stale · 83s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 35.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
6%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.4024) at the end of the window closing 5:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 6% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT250500-00 | direct contract | 5.5¢ | 5.6¢ | 5.55¢ | midpoint | fresh · 44s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
13%Last tradeStale
The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (75.7808) at the end of the window closing 5:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 13% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT250500-00 | direct contract | 13.00¢ | last trade | stale · 84s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 14.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
9%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,187.285) at the end of the window closing 5:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 9% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT250500-00 | direct contract | 9.0¢ | 9.8¢ | 9.40¢ | midpoint | fresh · 52s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
11%The chance BNB settles above its target price (740.87) at the end of the window closing 5:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 36% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 11% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT250500-00 | direct contract | 10.0¢ | 12.0¢ | 11.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 42s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 36.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
13%Crypto contracts made up 12.9% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 25, 2026: about $182 million of the $1406 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 25 to Oct 24, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).