The snapshot from Oct 25, 1:58 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-25T0256/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 25, 2:56 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
17%Last tradeStale
The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,432.95) at the end of the window closing 3:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 17% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT250300-00 | direct contract | 17.00¢ | last trade | stale · 74s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 14.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
4%Last tradeStale
The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,342.41) at the end of the window closing 3:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 4% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT250300-00 | direct contract | 3.90¢ | last trade | stale · 71s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 40.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
6%Last tradeStale
The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2975) at the end of the window closing 3:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 6% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT250300-00 | direct contract | 6.40¢ | last trade | stale · 92s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 4.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
15%Last tradeStale
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0767511) at the end of the window closing 3:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 15% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT250300-00 | direct contract | 15.00¢ | last trade | stale · 92s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 23.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
3%The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.4917) at the end of the window closing 3:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 2% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 3% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT250300-00 | direct contract | 3.1¢ | 3.2¢ | 3.15¢ | midpoint | fresh · 39s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 2.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
10%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.4186) at the end of the window closing 3:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 10% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT250300-00 | direct contract | 9.90¢ | last trade | stale · 122s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
5%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (75.9366) at the end of the window closing 3:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 6% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 5% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT250300-00 | direct contract | 5.1¢ | 5.6¢ | 5.35¢ | midpoint | fresh · 25s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 6.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
1%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,193.4707) at the end of the window closing 3:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 1% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT250300-00 | direct contract | 1.20¢ | last trade | stale · 121s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
7%Last tradeStale
The chance BNB settles above its target price (743.13) at the end of the window closing 3:00 AM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 7% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT250300-00 | direct contract | 6.70¢ | last trade | stale · 92s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 22.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
13%Crypto contracts made up 13.2% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 25, 2026: about $184 million of the $1389 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 25 to Oct 24, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).