The snapshot from Oct 24, 4:43 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-24T1755/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 24, 5:55 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
28%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,275.95) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 50% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 28% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT241800-00 | direct contract | 27.0¢ | 28.0¢ | 27.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 52s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
70%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,335.88) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 26% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 70% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT241800-00 | direct contract | 69.0¢ | 70.0¢ | 69.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 29s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 25.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
42%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2911) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 13% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 42% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT241800-00 | direct contract | 41.0¢ | 43.0¢ | 42.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 31s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 13.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
29%Last tradeStale
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0770953) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 29% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT241800-00 | direct contract | 29.00¢ | last trade | stale · 64s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
31%The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.2547) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 14% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 31% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT241800-00 | direct contract | 30.0¢ | 31.0¢ | 30.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 45s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 14.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
46%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.4327) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 46% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT241800-00 | direct contract | 46.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 41s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
4%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (76.0581) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 24% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 4% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT241800-00 | direct contract | 4.1¢ | 4.4¢ | 4.25¢ | midpoint | fresh · 25s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 24.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
26%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,193.5423) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 26% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT241800-00 | direct contract | 25.0¢ | 26.0¢ | 25.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 36s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
6%The chance BNB settles above its target price (732.49) at the end of the window closing 6:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 33% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 6% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT241800-00 | direct contract | 5.2¢ | 6.0¢ | 5.60¢ | midpoint | fresh · 36s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 33.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
16%Crypto contracts made up 15.6% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 24, 2026: about $193 million of the $1240 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 24 to Oct 23, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).