The snapshot from Oct 24, 3:45 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-24T1643/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 24, 4:43 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
73%Last tradeStale
The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,420.43) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 73% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT241645-45 | direct contract | 73.00¢ | last trade | stale · 74s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 98.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
69%Last tradeStale
The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,341.45) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 69% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT241645-45 | direct contract | 69.00¢ | last trade | stale · 74s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 80.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
34%Last tradeStale
The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2909) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 34% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT241645-45 | direct contract | 34.00¢ | last trade | stale · 132s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 67.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
92%Last tradeStale
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0772229) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 92% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT241645-45 | direct contract | 92.20¢ | last trade | stale · 158s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 93.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
49%Last tradeStale
The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.3453) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 49% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT241645-45 | direct contract | 49.00¢ | last trade | stale · 96s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 85.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
74%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.4731) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 74% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT241645-45 | direct contract | 74.00¢ | last trade | stale · 88s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
81%Last tradeStale
The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (76.2106) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 81% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT241645-45 | direct contract | 81.00¢ | last trade | stale · 90s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 94.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
18%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,204.9853) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 18% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT241645-45 | direct contract | 18.00¢ | last trade | stale · 88s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
97%Last tradeStale
The chance BNB settles above its target price (730.69) at the end of the window closing 4:45 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT241645-45 | direct contract | 97.00¢ | last trade | stale · 87s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 96.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
16%Crypto contracts made up 15.8% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 24, 2026: about $195 million of the $1229 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.1BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 24 to Oct 23, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).