The snapshot from Oct 23, 8:56 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-23T2214/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 23, 10:14 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
42%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,828.39) at the end of the window closing 10:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 82% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 42% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT232215-15 | direct contract | 41.0¢ | 42.0¢ | 41.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 60s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 82.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
94%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,379.3) at the end of the window closing 10:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 97% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 94% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT232215-15 | direct contract | 93.4¢ | 93.7¢ | 93.55¢ | midpoint | fresh · 60s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 97.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
91%Last tradeStale
The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.29) at the end of the window closing 10:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 91% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT232215-15 | direct contract | 91.10¢ | last trade | stale · 98s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 96.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
98%Last tradeStale
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0787399) at the end of the window closing 10:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 98% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT232215-15 | direct contract | 97.50¢ | last trade | stale · 93s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 97.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
69%Last tradeStale
The chance Solana settles above its target price (102.4918) at the end of the window closing 10:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 69% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT232215-15 | direct contract | 69.00¢ | last trade | stale · 150s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 89.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
41%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.6435) at the end of the window closing 10:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 41% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT232215-15 | direct contract | 41.00¢ | last trade | stale · 97s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
>99%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (76.9893) at the end of the window closing 10:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 64% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a >99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT232215-15 | direct contract | 99.5¢ | 99.6¢ | 99.55¢ | midpoint | fresh · 60s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 64.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
>99%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,175.9823) at the end of the window closing 10:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a >99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT232215-15 | direct contract | 99.60¢ | last trade | stale · 97s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
>99%Last tradeStale
The chance BNB settles above its target price (738.92) at the end of the window closing 10:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a >99% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT232215-15 | direct contract | 99.50¢ | last trade | stale · 92s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 98.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
21%Crypto contracts made up 21.2% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 23, 2026: about $197 million of the $926 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.0BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 24 to Oct 23, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).