The snapshot from Oct 23, 7:52 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-23T2056/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 23, 8:56 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
67%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,538.83) at the end of the window closing 9:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 88% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 67% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT232100-00 | direct contract | 66.0¢ | 67.0¢ | 66.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 42s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 87.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
78%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,368.91) at the end of the window closing 9:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 92% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 78% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT232100-00 | direct contract | 77.0¢ | 78.0¢ | 77.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 42s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 91.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
64%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2835) at the end of the window closing 9:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 84% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 64% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT232100-00 | direct contract | 62.0¢ | 65.0¢ | 63.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 42s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 83.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
86%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0781229) at the end of the window closing 9:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 93% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 86% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT232100-00 | direct contract | 85.0¢ | 86.0¢ | 85.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 42s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 93.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
95%Last tradeStale
The chance Solana settles above its target price (101.968) at the end of the window closing 9:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 95% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT232100-00 | direct contract | 94.80¢ | last trade | stale · 80s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 89.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
92%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.59) at the end of the window closing 9:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 92% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT232100-00 | direct contract | 91.5¢ | 92.3¢ | 91.90¢ | midpoint | fresh · 42s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
86%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (76.3046) at the end of the window closing 9:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 90% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 86% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT232100-00 | direct contract | 84.0¢ | 87.0¢ | 85.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 40s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 90.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
61%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,166.7819) at the end of the window closing 9:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 61% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT232100-00 | direct contract | 58.0¢ | 64.0¢ | 61.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 40s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
97%Last tradeStale
The chance BNB settles above its target price (734.09) at the end of the window closing 9:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT232100-00 | direct contract | 96.90¢ | last trade | stale · 82s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 92.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
22%Crypto contracts made up 21.6% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 23, 2026: about $193 million of the $893 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.0BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 23 to Oct 22, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).