The snapshot from Oct 23, 6:49 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-23T1952/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 23, 7:52 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
95%Last tradeStale
The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (80,849.36) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 95% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT232000-00 | direct contract | 95.30¢ | last trade | stale · 61s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 96.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
93%Last tradeStale
The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,377.85) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 93% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT232000-00 | direct contract | 92.50¢ | last trade | stale · 77s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 94.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
90%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2912) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 76% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 90% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT232000-00 | direct contract | 89.0¢ | 90.2¢ | 89.60¢ | midpoint | fresh · 60s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 76.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
89%The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0783609) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 80% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 89% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT232000-00 | direct contract | 88.0¢ | 89.0¢ | 88.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 57s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 80.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
95%The chance Solana settles above its target price (102.4872) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 68% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 95% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT232000-00 | direct contract | 94.5¢ | 94.6¢ | 94.55¢ | midpoint | fresh · 52s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 68.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
88%Single venue
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.6658) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 88% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT232000-00 | direct contract | 87.0¢ | 88.0¢ | 87.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 60s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
87%The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (76.7675) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 78% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 87% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT232000-00 | direct contract | 86.0¢ | 88.0¢ | 87.00¢ | midpoint | fresh · 57s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 77.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
83%Single venue
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,175.4919) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 83% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT232000-00 | direct contract | 81.0¢ | 84.0¢ | 82.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 52s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
97%The chance BNB settles above its target price (737.17) at the end of the window closing 8:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 86% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 97% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT232000-00 | direct contract | 96.5¢ | 96.8¢ | 96.65¢ | midpoint | fresh · 57s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 85.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
22%Crypto contracts made up 22.0% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 23, 2026: about $192 million of the $874 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.0BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 23 to Oct 22, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).