The snapshot from Oct 23, 6:01 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-23T1849/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 23, 6:49 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
13%The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (81,017.12) at the end of the window closing 7:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 14% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 13% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT231900-00 | direct contract | 12.0¢ | 13.0¢ | 12.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 51s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 13.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
13%The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,380.24) at the end of the window closing 7:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 56% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 13% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT231900-00 | direct contract | 12.0¢ | 13.0¢ | 12.50¢ | midpoint | fresh · 51s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 56.00¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
5%The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.2993) at the end of the window closing 7:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s midpoint for the Up contract. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in. Polymarket showed 36% up.
Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 5% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT231900-00 | direct contract | 5.2¢ | 5.3¢ | 5.25¢ | midpoint | fresh · 47s old | Contract ↗ |
| Polymarket | reference only | 35.50¢ | midpoint | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
19%Last tradeStale
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0785903) at the end of the window closing 7:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 19% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT231900-00 | direct contract | 19.00¢ | last trade | stale · 62s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
16%Last tradeStale
The chance Solana settles above its target price (102.845) at the end of the window closing 7:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Solana a 16% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT231900-00 | direct contract | 16.00¢ | last trade | stale · 80s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 37.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
15%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance NEAR settles above its target price (4.6897) at the end of the window closing 7:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives NEAR a 15% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT231900-00 | direct contract | 15.00¢ | last trade | stale · 62s old | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
8%Last tradeStale
The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (77.1444) at the end of the window closing 7:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 8% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT231900-00 | direct contract | 7.90¢ | last trade | stale · 101s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 27.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
9%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Zcash settles above its target price (1,186.5278) at the end of the window closing 7:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Zcash a 9% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT231900-00 | direct contract | 8.90¢ | last trade | stale · 102s old | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
12%Last tradeStale
The chance BNB settles above its target price (738.64) at the end of the window closing 7:00 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 12% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT231900-00 | direct contract | 12.00¢ | last trade | stale · 64s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 49.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
22%Crypto contracts made up 22.5% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 23, 2026: about $194 million of the $864 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.0BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 23 to Oct 22, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).