The snapshot from Oct 23, 3:53 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/crypto/snapshot/2026-10-23T1801/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Crypto marketsEvery figure as of Oct 23, 6:01 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Bitcoin finishes the 15-minute window up
74%Last trade
The chance Bitcoin settles above its target price (81,275.5) at the end of the window closing 6:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Bitcoin a 74% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBTC15M-26OCT231815-15 | direct contract | 74.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 53s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Ethereum finishes the 15-minute window up
83%Last trade
The chance Ethereum settles above its target price (2,396.32) at the end of the window closing 6:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Ethereum a 83% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXETH15M-26OCT231815-15 | direct contract | 83.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 56s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.50¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
XRP finishes the 15-minute window up
88%Last trade
The chance XRP settles above its target price (1.3046) at the end of the window closing 6:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives XRP a 88% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXXRP15M-26OCT231815-15 | direct contract | 88.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 46s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Dogecoin finishes the 15-minute window up
82%Last trade
The chance Dogecoin settles above its target price (0.0792241) at the end of the window closing 6:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Dogecoin a 82% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXDOGE15M-26OCT231815-15 | direct contract | 82.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 44s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Solana finishes the 15-minute window up
–Single venue
Solana’s 15-minute window closing 6:00 PM ET (target price 103.6573) settled Down on Kalshi. The next window isn’t in our feed yet, so there’s no current price.
Kalshi settles each window on the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index. A closed window shows its result only once Kalshi has settled it, never one read from a price.
Quote type: Kalshi settlement. Cited as: “Solana’s 15-minute window closing 6:00 PM ET settled Down on Kalshi” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXSOL15M-26OCT231800-00 | direct contract | kalshi settlement | settled | Contract ↗ |
NEAR finishes the 15-minute window up
–Single venue
NEAR’s 15-minute window closing 6:00 PM ET (target price 4.7865) settled Down on Kalshi. The next window isn’t in our feed yet, so there’s no current price.
Kalshi settles each window on the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index. A closed window shows its result only once Kalshi has settled it, never one read from a price.
Quote type: Kalshi settlement. Cited as: “NEAR’s 15-minute window closing 6:00 PM ET settled Down on Kalshi” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXNEAR15M-26OCT231800-00 | direct contract | kalshi settlement | settled | Contract ↗ |
Hyperliquid finishes the 15-minute window up
85%Last trade
The chance Hyperliquid settles above its target price (77.7514) at the end of the window closing 6:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Hyperliquid a 85% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXHYPE15M-26OCT231815-15 | direct contract | 85.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 32s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Zcash finishes the 15-minute window up
–Single venue
Zcash’s 15-minute window closing 6:00 PM ET (target price 1,221.8348) settled Up on Kalshi. The next window isn’t in our feed yet, so there’s no current price.
Kalshi settles each window on the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index. A closed window shows its result only once Kalshi has settled it, never one read from a price.
Quote type: Kalshi settlement. Cited as: “Zcash’s 15-minute window closing 6:00 PM ET settled Up on Kalshi” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXZEC15M-26OCT231800-00 | direct contract | kalshi settlement | settled | Contract ↗ |
BNB finishes the 15-minute window up
62%Last tradeStale
The chance BNB settles above its target price (740.58) at the end of the window closing 6:15 PM ET, on Kalshi.
Kalshi’s last trade for the Up contract in this window: its bid and ask weren’t read in the last minute, so no price to buy is shown. Polymarket’s similar market uses a different target and settlement source, so it isn’t averaged in.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Kalshi gives BNB a 62% chance of finishing the 15-minute window up” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXBNB15M-26OCT231815-15 | direct contract | 62.00¢ | last trade | stale · 84s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | reference only | 50.00¢ | last trade | fresh | Not averaged: different target and settlement source. |
Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume
23%Crypto contracts made up 22.6% of prediction-market volume in the 24 hours to Oct 23, 2026: about $190 million of the $843 million traded.
Crypto-category volume divided by all-category volume, last 24 hours.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Crypto’s share of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).
Data sources (1)
Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days
$5.0BDollars traded in Kalshi’s crypto markets from Sep 23 to Oct 22, 2026, up 18% on the prior 30 days.
Sum of Kalshi crypto-category volume over 30 days.
Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi crypto volume, 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).