Argentina, France, and Norway all qualified for the World Cup Round of 32 after securing impressive wins yesterday. They will join Germany, the Netherlands, Mexico, and the USA in the knockout stage of the tournament.
Prediction markets give Portugal an 86% chance of beating Uzbekistan today. England is also in action against Ghana, and Colombia will aim to extend its winning streak when it takes on DR Congo.
Here’s where the markets are pricing the Portugal vs. Uzbekistan matchup across Kalshi and Polymarket. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET on FOX from NRG Stadium in Houston. Kalshi and Polymarket are offering promos for this game. Get $10 at Kalshi using the code RATE or choose Polymarket for a $50 bonus with your first $20 deposit. Code RATE also applies.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Portugal) | 86% | 85% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 12% | 11% |
| Moneyline (Uzbekistan) | 5% | 5% |
| Spread (Portugal -2.5) | 44% | 46% |
| Spread (Uzbekistan +2.5) | 57% | 55% |
| Total Goals (Over 3.5) | 42% | 43% |
| Total Goals (Under 3.5) | 59% | 58% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 38% | 38% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 63% | 63% |
| First Team to Score (Portugal) | 85% | 85% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 13% | 15% |
| First Team to Score (Uzbekistan) | 4% | 3% |
Prediction markets expect Portugal to return to winning ways when it faces Uzbekistan this afternoon. The Portuguese players will be frustrated after drawing 1-1 with DR Congo in their opening game of the tournament. João Neves opened the scoring, but Yoane Wissa equalized for DR Congo on the stroke of half-time, and Portugal couldn’t find a breakthrough in the second half.
The players could now take out their frustrations on Uzbekistan, which lost 3-1 to Colombia on Matchday 1. The Uzbek defenders couldn’t cope with the pace and dynamism of Colombian winger Luis Díaz in that game, so they may struggle to contain the likes of Pedro Neto, Rafael Leão, and Bernardo Silva today.
Portugal is priced at 86% to win the game, but you can get more value by backing the team to cover a 2.5-goal spread. The Portuguese should dominate possession, but they need to get the ball to striker Cristiano Ronaldo in the penalty box. He was quiet against DR Congo, but he could put Uzbekistan to the sword with better service today.
Ronaldo is priced at 59% with Polymarket to score. Playmaker Bruno Fernandes, who just broke the Premier League single-season assist record, is trading at 42% to provide an assist in this game.
More World Cup odds for today’s matches
The action then shifts to Boston, where England will take on Ghana. Soccer fans can also look forward to two more games on Tuesday: Panama vs. Croatia and Colombia vs. DR Congo. Here are the prediction market odds for the rest of the day’s World Cup matchups.
England vs. Ghana, 4 p.m. ET
England’s players should be full of confidence after beating Croatia 4-2 in their opening game of the tournament. The Three Lions are the heavy favorites to get the better of Ghana in Boston today.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (England) | 83% | 82% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 13% | 14% |
| Moneyline (Ghana) | 6% | 6% |
| Spread (England -1.5) | 62% | 62% |
| Spread (Ghana +1.5) | 39% | 39% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 62% | 62% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 39% | 39% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 40% | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 61% | 61% |
| First Team to Score (England) | 81% | 81% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 5% | 5% |
| First Team to Score (Ghana) | 16% | 16% |
England captain Harry Kane scored twice in that 4-2 victory over Croatia. He opened the scoring from the penalty spot, before heading in Declan Rice’s corner on 42 minutes. Kane, who just won the European Golden Shoe following a prolific season with Bayern Munich, is priced at 61% with Kalshi and 65% with Polymarket to score against Ghana today.
The England defense looked shaky against Croatia, and the game was delicately poised at 2-2 at half-time. However, England’s forwards were rampant in the second half, and goals from Jude Bellingham and Marcus Rashford sealed the win. England is priced at 62% to cover a 1.5-goal spread against Ghana, which reflects the team’s attacking prowess.
Ghana earned a smash-and-grab 1-0 win against Panama on Matchday 1. The Black Stars were outplayed for large parts of the game, but they defended well, and Caleb Yirenkyi’s 96th-minute goal earned them a vital win. However, prediction markets expect them to be outclassed against England.
Key midfielder Thomas Partey will return, giving Ghana a boost, but traders think that Ghana could struggle to deal with England’s elite forwards. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 62%, so this could develop into an entertaining game.
Panama vs. Croatia, 7 p.m. ET
Croatia will aim to get its World Cup campaign back on track when it faces Panama at BMO Field in Toronto tonight. The Croats played pretty well during that 4-2 defeat to England, and they’re priced at 66% to win this game with Polymarket and Kalshi.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Panama) | 13% | 13% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 23% | 24% |
| Moneyline (Croatia) | 66% | 66% |
| Spread (Panama +1.5) | 60% | 59% |
| Spread (Croatia -1.5) | 41% | 42% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 56% | 57% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 45% | 44% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 51% | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 50% | 50% |
| First Team to Score (Panama) | 27% | 26% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 7% | 6% |
| First Team to Score (Croatia) | 70% | 68% |
Croatia has a history of punching above its weight at this tournament. The Vatreni were runners-up at the 2018 World Cup, and they finished third in 2022. Several key players have retired since then, but Luka Modrić and Ivan Perišić are still going strong. Some talented younger players have also emerged, including Man City defender Joško Gvardiol and Como winger Martin Baturina.
The defense couldn’t cope with Kane and Bellingham on Matchday 1, but Croatia’s forwards looked sharp. For that reason, Croatia is priced at 70% to score first in this game. Both teams to score is trading at 51%, which could prove popular, as Croatia has failed to keep a clean sheet in its last seven games. Croatia is trading at 66% to win this game, but you can unlock more value by backing the Croats to cover a 1.5-goal spread, priced at 41% with Polymarket.
Colombia vs. DR Congo, 10 p.m. ET
Colombia cruised to a 3-1 victory over Uzbekistan in its opener. Los Cafeteros are priced at 64% with prediction sites to maintain their winning streak when they face DR Congo in Guadalajara tonight.
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (Colombia) | 64% | 64% |
| Moneyline (Draw) | 24% | 23% |
| Moneyline (DR Congo) | 14% | 14% |
| Spread (Colombia -1.5) | 36% | 36% |
| Spread (DR Congo +1.5) | 65% | 65% |
| Total Goals (Over 2.5) | 44% | 42% |
| Total Goals (Under 2.5) | 57% | 59% |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes) | 42% | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score (No) | 59% | 58% |
| First Team to Score (Colombia) | 66% | 67% |
| First Team to Score (Neither) | 10% | 9% |
| First Team to Score (DR Congo) | 26% | 25% |
Díaz ran riot against Uzbekistan on Matchday 1. The Bayern Munich winger scored and provided an assist in that game, and he ran the Uzbekistan defense ragged. He’s priced at 47% with Kalshi to either score or assist in this match, which looks interesting.
DR Congo is stronger in defense than Uzbekistan, as it proved by holding Portugal to a 1-1 draw on Matchday 1. For that reason, under 2.5 goals is priced at 57%. Both teams to score has paid off in five of Colombia’s last seven games, but it’s trading at 42% with Polymarket, so that could be an interesting value play.
England, Portugal, and Colombia are among the teams that could clinch their spots in the World Cup Round of 32 today. Matchday 3 then begins tomorrow, and several teams are fighting for World Cup survival, so it should be an exciting week.
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