The UFC heads to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada, for a blockbuster welterweight clash on Saturday as Conor McGregor takes on Max Holloway in a highly anticipated rematch.
The main card kicks off at 9 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Kalshi odds have the welterweight main event with Max Holloway as the clear favorite, with Conor McGregor returning from a five-year hiatus.
New Kalshi users can use promo code RATE to claim a $15 trading bonus for UFC 329 and the McGregor vs. Holloway fight.
How to claim the Kalshi $15 bonus for UFC 329
Enter the promo code RATE when creating a new Kalshi account to claim a $15 trading bonus for UFC markets. Here are the steps to follow to sign up and claim the bonus.
- Download the Kalshi app: Install the free Kalshi app for your iOS or Android device and begin the registration process. You can also visit the website and click on the Sign Up button.
- Enter the promo code RATE: Enter the Kalshi promo code RATE when prompted during the sign-up process.
- Verify your identity. You will need a valid driver’s license or passport to verify your identity.
- Fund your account: Deposit and trade $15 on any market using one of the accepted payment options, including a bank account, debit cards, Apple Pay, or wire transfer.
- Place your first trade. Review the market rules and make your first trade on UFC 329 or any other UFC market. Kalshi will credit your account with the $15 bonus after the market settles.
Full terms and conditions are available on our Kalshi promo code guide. Enter the correct Kalshi promo code for your state
| Promo Code | Eligible States |
|---|---|
| RATE | All States + DC, excluding AR, AZ, CT, IL, LA, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ, NV, and OH. |
UFC 329 odds on Kalshi
| Outcome | Prediction Odds | American Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway | 30% / 70% | +233 / -233 |
| Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis | 46% / 54% | +117 / -117 |
| Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista | 57% / 43% | -133 / +133 |
| Brandon Royval vs Lone’er Kavanagh | 35% / 65% | +186 / -186 |
| King Green vs. Terrance McKinney | 49% / 51% | +104 / -104 |
UFC 329 Main Event: McGregor vs. Holloway preview
Conor McGregor and Max Holloway run it back in a nostalgic yet high-stakes rematch more than a decade after their first meeting. McGregor had his hand raised via decision back in 2013, but both fighters have changed dramatically since. Holloway (26-7) has built a reputation on volume, durability, and an endless pace, earning himself a spot among the best featherweights of all time. McGregor (22-6) is still the most polarizing character in the division, combining crisp counterstriking with fight-ending power, but his activity and durability remain in question after a long layoff.
Stylistically, it’s an interesting clash between precision and pressure. McGregor will want to control the range early, setting traps with his left hand and controlling Holloway’s forward movement. Holloway, however, is at his best when involved in longer rallies, battering opponents with a series of shots and a speed of play that usually gets to even the most composed striker eventually. If he can pull this fight into the later rounds and turn it into a high-volume war, Holloway has the edge. But if McGregor times it early, his power is always an equalizer.
The market is trading at 70¢ (70% chance) for Holloway, and at 30¢ for the underdog, McGregor. Kalshi markets have a lot of confidence in Holloway. That pricing suggests traders are valuing Holloway’s durability and consistency over McGregor’s explosiveness and uncertainty. The big question for prediction market players is whether McGregor’s early finishing upside is enough to back him at a discount, or if Holloway’s relentless output makes him the more reliable pick over five rounds.
UFC 329 Co-Main Event: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint Denis preview
The co-main event of UFC 329 is a lightweight fight between Paddy Pimblett and Benoit Saint Denis that feels like an audition for two very different paths to contention. Pimblett (22-3) has become one of the UFC’s biggest personalities, riding a wave of fan support while continuing to develop inside the Octagon with improved grappling and opportunistic finishing ability. Standing across from him is French challenger Saint Denis (13-2), who comes to the table battle-tested, known for his relentless pressure, durability, and ability to turn every fight into a grueling war of attrition.
This is a classic chaos vs control matchup stylistically. Pimblett is a scrambler and transitioner, often taking advantage of wild moments to get submissions or create sudden momentum changes. In contrast, Saint Denis has a stifling pace that is predicated on forward pressure, clinch work, and punishing ground-and-pound that wears opponents down over the long haul. If Pimblett can create early openings and drag Saint Denis into unpredictable exchanges, he has a clear path to pulling off a finish. But if Saint Denis sets the pace and makes this a physical battle, his cardio and toughness could wear down his opponent as the fight progresses.
Saint Denis is 54¢ (54% chance) with Pimblett just behind at 46¢ on Kalshi markets right now, stacked as a near coin flip. That tight spread underscores how unpredictable this fight can be, with obvious routes to victory for either combatant based on who controls the tempo. Prediction market traders are debating Pimblett’s opportunistic finishing upside against Saint Denis’ consistency and pressure over three rounds.
The rest of the UFC 329 fight card
The remainder of the Las Vegas main card is filled with rising contenders and established veterans looking to make a statement before the welterweight fireworks close out the show. Bantamweight action will see top contender Cory Sandhagen defend his spot in the rankings against the always game Mario Bautista. Another featured bout on the main card will see veteran striker King Green try to put on a show for the crowd against the explosive Terrance McKinney in what is sure to be a fast-paced lightweight contest.
If you want to see every second of the action, make sure to get settled in early. The preliminary card kicks off at 5 p.m. ET with some intriguing matchups, including a high-stakes light heavyweight clash between Robert Whittaker and Nikita Krylov and a bantamweight scrap between former champion Cody Garbrandt and Adrian Yanez. The main card will start at 9 p.m. ET.
Why trade UFC 329 on Kalshi
Kalshi’s UFC 329 markets give you more flexibility than a traditional pre-match sportsbook bet. You can react to the fight as it unfolds, get into a position before the fighters make their walk, and buy or sell your shares as momentum shifts during live action.
Every moment of the main card is captured in real-time, with regular updates reflecting octagon control, damage, and grappling sequences. This is the sort of fast-moving environment where a heavy knockdown, a deep submission attempt, or a shifting pace between rounds can produce completely new trading angles.
Prediction markets feel more alive than betting on fixed odds because traders are managing a live position rather than just buying a ticket and waiting for the judges’ scorecards. And for any new users, the promo code RATE is an easy extra nudge, giving you a $15 trading bonus to get you started on one of the year’s biggest combat sports events.
NOTE: Prediction markets involve risk, and prices can move quickly before and during live events. Users should trade only with money they can afford to lose, review the rules for each market before buying shares, and avoid chasing losses.
