TodayEvery figure as of Oct 21, 11:04 AM ET

Constructed

The market-implied chance that Democrats control the Senate in the next Congress. Democrats need 51 seats, because the vice president, a Republican, breaks 50–50 ties. Each contract's own rules decide independents, runoffs and ties.

Equal-weight average of two venues, each priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask.
Kalshi 65.0% (constructed). Kalshi has no single Senate-control contract, so we add its two balance-of-power contracts in which Democrats win the Senate: D House + D Senate (64.5¢) and R House + D Senate (0.55¢).
Polymarket 64.5%, from its Senate-control contract.
Average: 64.8%, shown as 65%.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 65% chance of winning control of the Senate” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-21 (148 rows). Daily closing average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket. The last point is today's 11:04 AM observation. Full history (CSV)

The market-implied chance that Democrats win a House majority (218 seats) in the 2026 election, under each contract's settlement rules.

Equal-weight average of two venues' House-control contracts, each priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask: Kalshi 90.75% and Polymarket 91.5%. Average: 91.1%, shown as 91%.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 91% chance of winning the House” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-21 (148 rows). Kalshi daily close. The 7-day change for the House is measured on Kalshi alone. Full history (CSV)

Last trade

The chance the Federal Reserve raises its target range by a quarter point at the Oct. 27–28 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Settles on the Fed’s official statement.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (12.5%) and Polymarket (13.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets put the chance of a Fed rate hike on Oct. 28 at 13%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-21 (148 rows). Kalshi daily close. The last point is the 11:04 AM observation. Full history (CSV)

Stale

The market-implied chance the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. American odds equivalent: +519, before fees.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (16.5%), Polymarket (15.45%) and Polymarket US (16.5%). Each venue’s price is the midpoint of its bid and ask where our feed has both, otherwise its last trade; the team table also shows Polymarket’s price to buy.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask, else last trade. Cited as: “Prediction markets give the San Francisco 49ers a 16% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI” (average of Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-21 (148 rows). Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate. Full history (CSV)

Last trade

The chance the Democratic nominee wins the presidential election in November 2028.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (58.5%) and Polymarket (64.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 62% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance JD Vance is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (42.5%) and Polymarket (43.8%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give JD Vance a 43% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

The chance Republicans keep both the House and the Senate.

Average of Kalshi's R House + R Senate contract (9.15¢) and Polymarket's matching contract (7.5¢). These two contracts ask the same question, so this is a like-for-like comparison.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Markets give Republicans a 8% chance of keeping both chambers” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last tradeSingle venue

The same question asked a different way: the chance the target range’s upper bound is above today’s after the October meeting.

Kalshi only. Shown to compare with Kalshi’s decision contract.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Single venue

The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Alaska (Peltola (D) vs. Sullivan (R)).

Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 76% chance in the Alaska Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Single venue

The chance the Democratic candidate wins the 2026 Senate race in Michigan (El-Sayed (D) vs. Rogers (R)).

Kalshi only: every state race on this page is priced from Kalshi's contract. Price is the midpoint of Kalshi's bid and ask.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Kalshi gives Democrats a 69% chance in the Michigan Senate race” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).

Stale

The market-implied chance the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. American odds equivalent: +795, before fees.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (11.5%), Polymarket (10.50%) and Polymarket US (11.5%). Each venue’s price is the midpoint of its bid and ask where our feed has both, otherwise its last trade; the team table also shows Polymarket’s price to buy.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask, else last trade. Cited as: “Prediction markets give the Buffalo Bills a 11% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI” (average of Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-21 (148 rows). Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate. Full history (CSV)

The market-implied chance the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. American odds equivalent: +1349, before fees.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (6.5%), Polymarket (6.70%) and Polymarket US (7.5%). Each venue’s price is the midpoint of its bid and ask where our feed has both, otherwise its last trade; the team table also shows Polymarket’s price to buy.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask, else last trade. Cited as: “Prediction markets give the Baltimore Ravens a 7% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI” (average of Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-21 (148 rows). Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate. Full history (CSV)