Prediction marketsEvery figure as of Oct 10, 10:30 PM ET

The sign-up bonus Kalshi currently offers new customers with code RATE. Trade $10 within 90 days. Trading credit; expires 7 days after it’s granted; winnings are withdrawable.

An editor opened the offer page and the full terms on Oct 10, 2026 at 10:30 PM ET and recorded the amount, requirement, cash-out rules and eligible states. Offers are rechecked daily; a change is logged below with its date.

Terms: Editor-verified terms. Cited as: “Kalshi offers new customers trade $10, get $55 with code RATE” (Kalshi terms, verified by DeFi Rate).

Offer terms (1)

The sign-up bonus Polymarket US currently offers new customers with code RATE. First deposit of at least $10. Trading credit; winnings are withdrawable.

An editor opened the offer page and the full terms on Oct 10, 2026 at 10:30 PM ET and recorded the amount, requirement, cash-out rules and eligible states. Offers are rechecked daily; a change is logged below with its date.

Terms: Editor-verified terms. Cited as: “Polymarket US offers new customers deposit $10, get $25 with code RATE” (Polymarket US terms, verified by DeFi Rate).

Offer terms (1)

The sign-up bonus FanDuel Predicts currently offers new customers. Trade $1 a day for 5 days. Bonus not withdrawable; winnings are.

An editor opened the offer page and the full terms on Oct 10, 2026 at 10:30 PM ET and recorded the amount, requirement, cash-out rules and eligible states. Offers are rechecked daily; a change is logged below with its date.

Terms: Editor-verified terms. Cited as: “FanDuel Predicts offers new customers trade $5, get $100” (FanDuel Predicts terms, verified by DeFi Rate).

Offer terms (1)

The sign-up bonus OG Predictions currently offers new customers. First $10 trade within 7 days. Reward credited after first trade.

An editor opened the offer page and the full terms on Oct 10, 2026 at 10:30 PM ET and recorded the amount, requirement, cash-out rules and eligible states. Offers are rechecked daily; a change is logged below with its date.

Terms: Editor-verified terms. Cited as: “OG Predictions offers new customers trade $10, get $10” (OG Predictions terms, verified by DeFi Rate).

Offer terms (1)

The sign-up bonus DraftKings Predictions currently offers new customers. Opt in, then trade $5+; paid over 21 days. Credit not withdrawable; profits are.

An editor opened the offer page and the full terms on Oct 10, 2026 at 10:30 PM ET and recorded the amount, requirement, cash-out rules and eligible states. Offers are rechecked daily; a change is logged below with its date.

Terms: Editor-verified terms. Cited as: “DraftKings Predictions offers new customers spend $5+, get $150” (DraftKings Predictions terms, verified by DeFi Rate).

Offer terms (1)

The dollar value of all contracts traded on DraftKings Predictions, Gemini, Kalshi, Novig, Polymarket, Polymarket US, ProphetX, Rothera and Underdog Exchange, Sep 22-Oct 21, 2026.

Sum of daily traded volume across the nine venues.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Prediction markets traded $107.5 billion in 30 days” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

Kalshi’s share of 30-day prediction-market volume across the venues we track.

Kalshi 30-day volume divided by the nine-venue total.

Measure: Traded volume. Cited as: “Kalshi handled 76% of prediction-market volume” (DeFi Rate volume data).

Data sources (1)

Prediction market apps open to US customers and trading today, each operating as or through a CFTC-registered exchange.

Counted from DeFi Rate’s operator tracker: Polymarket US, Kalshi, Gemini Predictions, FanDuel Predicts, DraftKings Predictions, OG Predictions, Underdog Predict, ForecastEx. Novig is approved but not trading; Fanatics Markets’ status isn’t confirmed. Neither is counted.

Record type: CFTC status tracker. Cited as: “8 prediction market apps are live for US customers” (DeFi Rate CFTC tracker).

Source documents (10)

Constructed

The market-implied chance that Democrats control the Senate in the next Congress. Democrats need 51 seats, because the vice president, a Republican, breaks 50–50 ties. Each contract's own rules decide independents, runoffs and ties.

Equal-weight average of two venues, each priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask.
Kalshi 68.0% (constructed). Kalshi has no single Senate-control contract, so we add its two balance-of-power contracts in which Democrats win the Senate: D House + D Senate (67.5¢) and R House + D Senate (0.55¢).
Polymarket 66.5%, from its Senate-control contract.
Average: 67.3%, shown as 67%.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 67% chance of winning control of the Senate” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-22 (149 rows). Daily closing average of Kalshi (constructed) and Polymarket. The last point is today's 5:23 AM observation. Full history (CSV)

Last trade

The chance the Federal Reserve raises its target range by a quarter point at the Oct. 27–28 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Settles on the Fed’s official statement.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (11.5%) and Polymarket (11.5%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets put the chance of a Fed rate hike on Oct. 28 at 12%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-22 (149 rows). Kalshi daily close. The last point is the 5:23 AM observation. Full history (CSV)

The market-implied chance the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl LXI in February 2027. American odds equivalent: +519, before fees.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (16.5%), Polymarket (15.45%) and Polymarket US (16.5%). Each venue’s price is the midpoint of its bid and ask where our feed has both, otherwise its last trade; the team table also shows Polymarket’s price to buy.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask, else last trade. Cited as: “Prediction markets give the San Francisco 49ers a 16% chance of winning Super Bowl LXI” (average of Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-22 (149 rows). Kalshi daily close via DeFi Rate. Full history (CSV)

The market-implied chance that Democrats win a House majority (218 seats) in the 2026 election, under each contract's settlement rules.

Equal-weight average of two venues' House-control contracts, each priced at the midpoint of its bid and ask: Kalshi 91.35% and Polymarket 92.5%. Average: 91.9%, shown as 92%.

Quote type: Midpoint of bid and ask. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 92% chance of winning the House” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-10-22 (149 rows). Kalshi daily close. The 7-day change for the House is measured on Kalshi alone. Full history (CSV)

Last trade

The chance the Democratic nominee wins the presidential election in November 2028.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (58.5%) and Polymarket (65.0%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 62% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Last trade

The chance JD Vance is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (42.5%) and Polymarket (43.8%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give JD Vance a 43% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).