The snapshot from Sep 30, 8:40 AM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/snapshot/2026-09-30T0846/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Fed decisionEvery figure as of Sep 30, 8:46 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
The Fed hikes on Oct. 28
40%Last trade
The chance the Federal Reserve raises its target range by a quarter point at the Oct. 27–28 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Settles on the Fed’s official statement.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (35.5%) and Polymarket (44.5%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets put the chance of a Fed rate hike on Oct. 28 at 40%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H25 | direct contract | 35.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 195s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324032 | direct contract | 44.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 201s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-30 (127 rows). Kalshi daily close. The last point is the 8:46 AM observation. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 35.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | 43.5% |
| 2026-09-28 | 69.0% |
| 2026-09-27 | 66.5% |
| 2026-09-26 | 63.5% |
| 2026-09-25 | 63.5% |
The Fed holds on Oct. 28
67%Last trade
The chance the Fed leaves its target range unchanged on Oct. 28, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (65.0%) and Polymarket (68.5%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets put the chance the Fed holds on Oct. 28 at 67%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0 | direct contract | 65.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 195s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324031 | direct contract | 68.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 196s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-30 (127 rows). Kalshi daily close. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 65.0% |
| 2026-09-29 | 55.5% |
| 2026-09-28 | 29.5% |
| 2026-09-27 | 32.5% |
| 2026-09-26 | 35.5% |
| 2026-09-25 | 35.5% |
The Fed hikes on Dec. 9
74%Last tradeStale
The chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8–9 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Each meeting is its own market, so this isn’t conditional on October.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (73.5%) and Polymarket (74.5%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets put the chance of a December Fed hike at 74%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H25 | direct contract | 73.50¢ | last trade | stale · 954s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808636 | direct contract | 74.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 195s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-30 (122 rows). Kalshi daily close. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 73.5% |
| 2026-09-29 | 74.5% |
| 2026-09-28 | 76.0% |
| 2026-09-27 | 68.5% |
| 2026-09-26 | 69.5% |
| 2026-09-25 | 70.5% |
At least one more hike in 2026
86%Last tradeStale
The chance the Fed raises rates at least once more before the end of 2026.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (85.5%) and Polymarket (85.5%). The two contracts are worded differently but settle on the same outcome.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets give about an 86% chance of at least one more Fed hike in 2026” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDHIKE-2-26DEC31 | direct contract | 85.50¢ | last trade | stale · 865s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026 | direct contract | 85.50¢ | last trade | stale · 377s old | Contract ↗ |
October hike, per Kalshi’s rate-level market
34%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The same question asked a different way: the chance the target range’s upper bound is above today’s after the October meeting.
Kalshi only. Shown to compare with Kalshi’s decision contract.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFED-26OCT-T4.00 | direct contract | 34.00¢ | last trade | stale · 309s old | Contract ↗ |