The snapshot from Sep 29, 12:47 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/prediction-markets/fed-decision-odds/snapshot/2026-09-29T1321/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
Fed decisionEvery figure as of Sep 29, 1:21 PM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
The Fed hikes on Oct. 28
67%Last tradeStale
The chance the Federal Reserve raises its target range by a quarter point at the Oct. 27–28 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Settles on the Fed’s official statement.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (66.5%) and Polymarket (67.5%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets put the chance of a Fed rate hike on Oct. 28 at 67%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H25 | direct contract | 66.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 182s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324032 | direct contract | 67.50¢ | last trade | stale · 429s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-29 (126 rows). Kalshi daily close. The last point is the 1:21 PM observation. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | 66.5% |
| 2026-09-28 | 69.0% |
| 2026-09-27 | 66.5% |
| 2026-09-26 | 63.5% |
| 2026-09-25 | 63.5% |
| 2026-09-24 | 67.5% |
The Fed holds on Oct. 28
32%Last tradeStale
The chance the Fed leaves its target range unchanged on Oct. 28, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (32.5%) and Polymarket (31.5%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets put the chance the Fed holds on Oct. 28 at 32%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDDECISION-26OCT-H0 | direct contract | 32.50¢ | last trade | stale · 492s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-october-2026-meeting-20260617190324031 | direct contract | 31.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 113s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-29 (126 rows). Kalshi daily close. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | 32.5% |
| 2026-09-28 | 29.5% |
| 2026-09-27 | 32.5% |
| 2026-09-26 | 35.5% |
| 2026-09-25 | 35.5% |
| 2026-09-24 | 33.5% |
The Fed hikes on Dec. 9
75%Last trade
The chance of a quarter-point hike at the Dec. 8–9 meeting, as priced on Kalshi and Polymarket. Each meeting is its own market, so this isn’t conditional on October.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (74.5%) and Polymarket (76.0%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets put the chance of a December Fed hike at 75%” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDDECISION-26DEC-H25 | direct contract | 74.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 109s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-the-fed-increase-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808636 | direct contract | 76.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 131s old | Contract ↗ |
History: Kalshi daily close, 2026-05-27 to 2026-09-29 (121 rows). Kalshi daily close. Full history (CSV)
| Date | Value |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | 74.5% |
| 2026-09-28 | 76.0% |
| 2026-09-27 | 68.5% |
| 2026-09-26 | 69.5% |
| 2026-09-25 | 70.5% |
| 2026-09-24 | 70.5% |
At least one more hike in 2026
90%Last tradeStale
The chance the Fed raises rates at least once more before the end of 2026.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (89.0%) and Polymarket (91.5%). The two contracts are worded differently but settle on the same outcome.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Markets give about a 90% chance of at least one more Fed hike in 2026” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFEDHIKE-2-26DEC31 | direct contract | 89.00¢ | last trade | stale · 1140s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | another-fed-rate-hike-in-2026 | direct contract | 91.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 122s old | Contract ↗ |
October hike, per Kalshi’s rate-level market
71%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The same question asked a different way: the chance the target range’s upper bound is above today’s after the October meeting.
Kalshi only. Shown to compare with Kalshi’s decision contract.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “” (Kalshi via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXFED-26OCT-T4.00 | direct contract | 70.50¢ | last trade | stale · 1202s old | Contract ↗ |