Snapshot · data observed Nov 2, 10:23 PM ET
2028 electionEvery figure as of Nov 2, 10:23 PM ET
A record of every figure at one observation, for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Older snapshots aren’t stored yet: after the page’s next update this address says so instead of showing newer figures. Methodology · Live source records
Democrats win the 2028 presidential election
64%Last trade
The chance the Democratic nominee wins the presidential election in November 2028.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (61.5%) and Polymarket (67.0%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 64% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESPARTY-2028-D | direct contract | 61.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 275s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-the-democrats-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 67.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 134s old | Contract ↗ |
JD Vance wins the Republican nomination
35%Last trade
The chance JD Vance is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (34.5%) and Polymarket (35.6%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give JD Vance a 35% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV | direct contract | 34.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 144s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 35.65¢ | last trade | fresh · 166s old | Contract ↗ |
Marco Rubio wins the Republican nomination
21%Last trade
The chance Marco Rubio is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (23.5%) and Polymarket (18.7%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Marco Rubio a 21% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-MR | direct contract | 23.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 137s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 18.70¢ | last trade | fresh · 134s old | Contract ↗ |
Ron DeSantis wins the Republican nomination
4%Last trade
The chance Ron DeSantis is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.0%) and Polymarket (4.2%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ron DeSantis a 4% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-RDS | direct contract | 3.95¢ | last trade | fresh · 3202s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-ron-desantis-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 4.15¢ | last trade | fresh · 134s old | Contract ↗ |
Tucker Carlson wins the Republican nomination
3%Last trade
The chance Tucker Carlson is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.8%) and Polymarket (3.0%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Tucker Carlson a 3% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR | direct contract | 2.80¢ | last trade | fresh · 2639s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-tucker-carlson-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 3.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 275s old | Contract ↗ |
Donald Trump Jr. wins the Republican nomination
3%Last trade
The chance Donald Trump Jr. is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.0%) and Polymarket (1.7%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Donald Trump Jr. a 3% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR | direct contract | 3.95¢ | last trade | fresh · 38s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-donald-trump-jr-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 1.65¢ | last trade | fresh · 2545s old | Contract ↗ |
Ted Cruz wins the Republican nomination
2%Last trade
The chance Ted Cruz is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.4%) and Polymarket (2.5%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ted Cruz a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-TC | direct contract | 2.35¢ | last trade | fresh · 3247s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-ted-cruz-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 2.55¢ | last trade | fresh · 2501s old | Contract ↗ |
Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination
2%Last trade
The chance Donald Trump is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (1.8%) and Polymarket (1.7%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Donald Trump a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-DJT | direct contract | 1.85¢ | last trade | fresh · 535s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-donald-trump-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 1.65¢ | last trade | fresh · 2554s old | Contract ↗ |
Brian Kemp wins the Republican nomination
2%Last trade
The chance Brian Kemp is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.5%) and Polymarket (0.8%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Brian Kemp a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-BK | direct contract | 2.45¢ | last trade | fresh · 1895s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-brian-kemp-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 0.75¢ | last trade | fresh · 162s old | Contract ↗ |
Ivanka Trump wins the Republican nomination
1%Last trade
The chance Ivanka Trump is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (1.1%) and Polymarket (1.7%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ivanka Trump a 1% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-ITRU | direct contract | 1.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 81s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-ivanka-trump-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 1.70¢ | last trade | fresh · 545s old | Contract ↗ |
Gavin Newsom wins the Democratic nomination
17%Last trade
The chance Gavin Newsom is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (17.5%) and Polymarket (15.5%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Gavin Newsom a 17% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-GN | direct contract | 17.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 319s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-568 | direct contract | 15.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 101s old | Contract ↗ |
Jon Ossoff wins the Democratic nomination
15%Last trade
The chance Jon Ossoff is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (14.5%) and Polymarket (15.4%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Jon Ossoff a 15% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-JOSS | direct contract | 14.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 85s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-jon-ossoff-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-885 | direct contract | 15.40¢ | last trade | fresh · 211s old | Contract ↗ |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the Democratic nomination
15%Last trade
The chance Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (13.5%) and Polymarket (16.1%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 15% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-AOC | direct contract | 13.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 292s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-653 | direct contract | 16.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
Kamala Harris wins the Democratic nomination
6%Last trade
The chance Kamala Harris is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (6.0%) and Polymarket (5.5%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Kamala Harris a 6% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-KH | direct contract | 6.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 1065s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-641 | direct contract | 5.45¢ | last trade | fresh · 10s old | Contract ↗ |
Josh Shapiro wins the Democratic nomination
5%Last trade
The chance Josh Shapiro is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.9%) and Polymarket (5.1%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Josh Shapiro a 5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-JS | direct contract | 4.85¢ | last trade | fresh · 888s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-977 | direct contract | 5.15¢ | last trade | fresh · 478s old | Contract ↗ |
Pete Buttigieg wins the Democratic nomination
5%Last trade
The chance Pete Buttigieg is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.5%) and Polymarket (5.0%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Pete Buttigieg a 5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-PB | direct contract | 4.55¢ | last trade | fresh · 888s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-pete-buttigieg-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-687 | direct contract | 5.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 2439s old | Contract ↗ |
Andy Beshear wins the Democratic nomination
4%Last trade
The chance Andy Beshear is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.4%) and Polymarket (3.5%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Andy Beshear a 4% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-AB | direct contract | 4.40¢ | last trade | fresh · 18s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-andy-beshear-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-832 | direct contract | 3.55¢ | last trade | fresh · 162s old | Contract ↗ |
James Talarico wins the Democratic nomination
3%Last trade
The chance James Talarico is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.2%) and Polymarket (2.6%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give James Talarico a 3% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-JTAL | direct contract | 4.25¢ | last trade | fresh · 211s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 2.65¢ | last trade | fresh · 5s old | Contract ↗ |
Raphael Warnock wins the Democratic nomination
3%Last trade
The chance Raphael Warnock is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.8%) and Polymarket (3.0%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Raphael Warnock a 3% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-RW | direct contract | 2.75¢ | last trade | fresh · 888s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-raphael-warnock-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-914 | direct contract | 3.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 52s old | Contract ↗ |
Mark Kelly wins the Democratic nomination
3%Last trade
The chance Mark Kelly is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (3.2%) and Polymarket (1.8%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Mark Kelly a 3% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-MK | direct contract | 3.25¢ | last trade | fresh · 888s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-mark-kelly-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-479 | direct contract | 1.75¢ | last trade | fresh · 59s old | Contract ↗ |
Rahm Emanuel wins the Democratic nomination
2%Last trade
The chance Rahm Emanuel is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.9%) and Polymarket (1.6%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Rahm Emanuel a 2% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA | direct contract | 2.90¢ | last trade | fresh · 881s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299 | direct contract | 1.55¢ | last trade | fresh · 255s old | Contract ↗ |
JD Vance wins the presidency
18%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance JD Vance wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives JD Vance a 18% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 18.45¢ | last trade | fresh · 22s old | Contract ↗ |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the presidency
12%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 12% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 12.20¢ | last trade | fresh · 7s old | Contract ↗ |
Gavin Newsom wins the presidency
12%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Gavin Newsom wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Gavin Newsom a 12% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 12.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 81s old | Contract ↗ |
Jon Ossoff wins the presidency
11%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Jon Ossoff wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Jon Ossoff a 11% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-jon-ossoff-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 10.80¢ | last trade | fresh · 201s old | Contract ↗ |
Marco Rubio wins the presidency
8%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Marco Rubio wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Marco Rubio a 8% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 8.25¢ | last trade | fresh · 183s old | Contract ↗ |
Kamala Harris wins the presidency
4%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Kamala Harris wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Kamala Harris a 4% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 3.85¢ | last trade | fresh · 136s old | Contract ↗ |
Josh Shapiro wins the presidency
3%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Josh Shapiro wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Josh Shapiro a 3% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 2.75¢ | last trade | stale · 4513s old | Contract ↗ |
Pete Buttigieg wins the presidency
3%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Pete Buttigieg wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Pete Buttigieg a 3% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-pete-buttigieg-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 2.70¢ | last trade | fresh · 18s old | Contract ↗ |