The snapshot from Oct 22, 11:50 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/us-president/snapshot/2026-10-23T0049/.
Permanent snapshot · never updated
2028 electionEvery figure as of Oct 23, 12:49 AM ET
A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records
Democrats win the 2028 presidential election
62%Last trade
The chance the Democratic nominee wins the presidential election in November 2028.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (58.5%) and Polymarket (65.0%), each at its last traded price.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 62% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESPARTY-2028-D | direct contract | 58.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 654s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-the-democrats-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 65.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 65s old | Contract ↗ |
JD Vance wins the Republican nomination
43%Last trade
The chance JD Vance is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (41.5%) and Polymarket (44.0%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give JD Vance a 43% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV | direct contract | 41.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 678s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 43.95¢ | last trade | fresh · 180s old | Contract ↗ |
Marco Rubio wins the Republican nomination
16%Last trade
The chance Marco Rubio is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (17.5%) and Polymarket (15.2%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Marco Rubio a 16% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-MR | direct contract | 17.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 1679s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 15.20¢ | last trade | fresh · 293s old | Contract ↗ |
Ron DeSantis wins the Republican nomination
4%Last trade
The chance Ron DeSantis is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.9%) and Polymarket (3.3%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ron DeSantis a 4% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-RDS | direct contract | 4.85¢ | last trade | fresh · 2032s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-ron-desantis-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 3.30¢ | last trade | fresh · 233s old | Contract ↗ |
Tucker Carlson wins the Republican nomination
3%Last trade
The chance Tucker Carlson is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.5%) and Polymarket (3.0%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Tucker Carlson a 3% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR | direct contract | 2.55¢ | last trade | fresh · 2096s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-tucker-carlson-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 3.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 257s old | Contract ↗ |
Ted Cruz wins the Republican nomination
2%Last trade
The chance Ted Cruz is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.2%) and Polymarket (2.5%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ted Cruz a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-TC | direct contract | 2.25¢ | last trade | fresh · 2077s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-ted-cruz-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 2.45¢ | last trade | fresh · 385s old | Contract ↗ |
Donald Trump Jr. wins the Republican nomination
2%Last trade
The chance Donald Trump Jr. is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.8%) and Polymarket (1.7%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Donald Trump Jr. a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR | direct contract | 2.75¢ | last trade | fresh · 367s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-donald-trump-jr-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 1.65¢ | last trade | fresh · 218s old | Contract ↗ |
Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination
2%Last trade
The chance Donald Trump is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.2%) and Polymarket (1.9%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Donald Trump a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-DJT | direct contract | 2.25¢ | last trade | fresh · 740s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-donald-trump-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 1.95¢ | last trade | fresh · 197s old | Contract ↗ |
Ivanka Trump wins the Republican nomination
1%Last trade
The chance Ivanka Trump is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (1.1%) and Polymarket (1.3%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ivanka Trump a 1% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMR-28-ITRU | direct contract | 1.10¢ | last trade | fresh · 1449s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-ivanka-trump-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 1.30¢ | last trade | fresh · 186s old | Contract ↗ |
Jon Ossoff wins the Democratic nomination
15%Last trade
The chance Jon Ossoff is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (15.5%) and Polymarket (15.4%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Jon Ossoff a 15% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-JOSS | direct contract | 15.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 1283s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-jon-ossoff-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-885 | direct contract | 15.45¢ | last trade | fresh · 186s old | Contract ↗ |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the Democratic nomination
15%Last trade
The chance Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (13.5%) and Polymarket (17.4%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 15% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-AOC | direct contract | 13.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 843s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-653 | direct contract | 17.40¢ | last trade | fresh · 175s old | Contract ↗ |
Gavin Newsom wins the Democratic nomination
14%Last trade
The chance Gavin Newsom is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (13.5%) and Polymarket (14.5%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Gavin Newsom a 14% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-GN | direct contract | 13.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 482s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-568 | direct contract | 14.55¢ | last trade | fresh · 167s old | Contract ↗ |
Kamala Harris wins the Democratic nomination
7%Last trade
The chance Kamala Harris is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (6.8%) and Polymarket (6.6%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Kamala Harris a 7% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-KH | direct contract | 6.80¢ | last trade | fresh · 89s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-641 | direct contract | 6.55¢ | last trade | fresh · 209s old | Contract ↗ |
Josh Shapiro wins the Democratic nomination
5%Last trade
The chance Josh Shapiro is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.5%) and Polymarket (5.1%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Josh Shapiro a 5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-JS | direct contract | 4.55¢ | last trade | fresh · 416s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-977 | direct contract | 5.15¢ | last trade | fresh · 467s old | Contract ↗ |
Pete Buttigieg wins the Democratic nomination
5%Last trade
The chance Pete Buttigieg is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.7%) and Polymarket (5.0%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Pete Buttigieg a 5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-PB | direct contract | 4.65¢ | last trade | fresh · 1067s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-pete-buttigieg-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-687 | direct contract | 5.00¢ | last trade | fresh · 537s old | Contract ↗ |
Andy Beshear wins the Democratic nomination
4%Last trade
The chance Andy Beshear is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (5.5%) and Polymarket (3.2%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Andy Beshear a 4% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-AB | direct contract | 5.55¢ | last trade | fresh · 1211s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-andy-beshear-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-832 | direct contract | 3.25¢ | last trade | fresh · 359s old | Contract ↗ |
Mark Kelly wins the Democratic nomination
3%Last trade
The chance Mark Kelly is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (3.5%) and Polymarket (2.1%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Mark Kelly a 3% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-MK | direct contract | 3.50¢ | last trade | fresh · 1808s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-mark-kelly-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-479 | direct contract | 2.10¢ | last trade | fresh · 991s old | Contract ↗ |
James Talarico wins the Democratic nomination
3%Last trade
The chance James Talarico is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.4%) and Polymarket (2.8%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give James Talarico a 3% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-JTAL | direct contract | 2.35¢ | last trade | fresh · 302s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination | direct contract | 2.75¢ | last trade | fresh · 268s old | Contract ↗ |
Rahm Emanuel wins the Democratic nomination
2%Last tradeStale
The chance Rahm Emanuel is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.
Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.9%) and Polymarket (1.6%), last traded prices.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Rahm Emanuel a 2% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA | direct contract | 2.85¢ | last trade | fresh · 842s old | Contract ↗ | ||
| Polymarket | will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299 | direct contract | 1.55¢ | last trade | stale · 5809s old | Contract ↗ |
JD Vance wins the presidency
20%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance JD Vance wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives JD Vance a 20% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 20.05¢ | last trade | fresh · 150s old | Contract ↗ |
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the presidency
13%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 13% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 12.75¢ | last trade | fresh · 162s old | Contract ↗ |
Jon Ossoff wins the presidency
10%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Jon Ossoff wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Jon Ossoff a 10% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-jon-ossoff-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 9.75¢ | last trade | fresh · 155s old | Contract ↗ |
Gavin Newsom wins the presidency
9%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Gavin Newsom wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Gavin Newsom a 9% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 9.40¢ | last trade | fresh · 159s old | Contract ↗ |
Marco Rubio wins the presidency
9%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Marco Rubio wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Marco Rubio a 9% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 8.55¢ | last trade | fresh · 434s old | Contract ↗ |
Kamala Harris wins the presidency
4%Last tradeSingle venue
The chance Kamala Harris wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Kamala Harris a 4% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 4.35¢ | last trade | fresh · 2842s old | Contract ↗ |
Josh Shapiro wins the presidency
3%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Josh Shapiro wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Josh Shapiro a 3% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 2.95¢ | last trade | stale · 16291s old | Contract ↗ |
Pete Buttigieg wins the presidency
3%Last tradeSingle venueStale
The chance Pete Buttigieg wins the 2028 presidential election.
Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.
Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Pete Buttigieg a 3% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).
| Venue | Contract | Role | Bid | Ask | Price | Price type | Quote | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | will-pete-buttigieg-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election | direct contract | 2.75¢ | last trade | stale · 16291s old | Contract ↗ |