The snapshot from Oct 22, 4:50 PM ET isn’t kept: this page’s figures are live, and older snapshots aren’t stored yet. This is the latest, at its own permanent address: https://defirate.com/odds/us-president/snapshot/2026-10-22T1725/.

Permanent snapshot · never updated

2028 electionEvery figure as of Oct 22, 5:25 PM ET

A frozen record for citation. Numbers on the live page change as markets move; these don’t. Methodology · Live source records

Data observedOct 22, 5:25 PM ET

Live page updatedOct 22, 5:25 PM ET

Permanent URLhttps://defirate.com/odds/us-president/snapshot/2026-10-22T1725

DownloadAll figures and contracts (CSV)
2028 nomination odds by venue (CSV)
2028 presidential winner (Polymarket) (CSV)
Which party wins 2028 (CSV)

Democrats win the 2028 presidential election

62%

Last trade

The chance the Democratic nominee wins the presidential election in November 2028.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (58.5%) and Polymarket (65.0%), each at its last traded price.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Democrats a 62% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESPARTY-2028-D	direct contract			58.50¢	last trade	fresh · 421s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-the-democrats-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election	direct contract			65.00¢	last trade	fresh · 82s old	Contract ↗

JD Vance wins the Republican nomination

43%

Last trade

The chance JD Vance is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (41.5%) and Polymarket (43.9%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give JD Vance a 43% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV	direct contract			41.50¢	last trade	fresh · 239s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination	direct contract			43.85¢	last trade	fresh · 82s old	Contract ↗

Marco Rubio wins the Republican nomination

17%

Last trade

The chance Marco Rubio is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (18.5%) and Polymarket (14.8%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Marco Rubio a 17% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMR-28-MR	direct contract			18.50¢	last trade	fresh · 117s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination	direct contract			14.85¢	last trade	fresh · 88s old	Contract ↗

Ron DeSantis wins the Republican nomination

Last tradeStale

The chance Ron DeSantis is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.9%) and Polymarket (2.8%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ron DeSantis a 4% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMR-28-RDS	direct contract			4.85¢	last trade	stale · 3673s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-ron-desantis-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination	direct contract			2.75¢	last trade	fresh · 830s old	Contract ↗

Tucker Carlson wins the Republican nomination

Last trade

The chance Tucker Carlson is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.2%) and Polymarket (3.0%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Tucker Carlson a 3% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMR-28-TCAR	direct contract			2.25¢	last trade	fresh · 120s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-tucker-carlson-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination	direct contract			3.05¢	last trade	fresh · 820s old	Contract ↗

Ted Cruz wins the Republican nomination

Last trade

The chance Ted Cruz is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.2%) and Polymarket (2.5%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ted Cruz a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMR-28-TC	direct contract			2.25¢	last trade	fresh · 120s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-ted-cruz-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination	direct contract			2.45¢	last trade	fresh · 339s old	Contract ↗

Donald Trump Jr. wins the Republican nomination

Last trade

The chance Donald Trump Jr. is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.8%) and Polymarket (1.7%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Donald Trump Jr. a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMR-28-DJTJR	direct contract			2.75¢	last trade	fresh · 131s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-donald-trump-jr-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination	direct contract			1.65¢	last trade	fresh · 830s old	Contract ↗

Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination

Last tradeStale

The chance Donald Trump is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.5%) and Polymarket (1.9%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Donald Trump a 2% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMR-28-DJT	direct contract			2.45¢	last trade	stale · 3656s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-donald-trump-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination	direct contract			1.95¢	last trade	fresh · 79s old	Contract ↗

Ivanka Trump wins the Republican nomination

Last trade

The chance Ivanka Trump is the Republican Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (1.1%) and Polymarket (1.3%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Ivanka Trump a 1% chance of winning the Republican nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMR-28-ITRU	direct contract			1.10¢	last trade	fresh · 120s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-ivanka-trump-win-the-2028-republican-presidential-nomination	direct contract			1.30¢	last trade	fresh · 820s old	Contract ↗

Jon Ossoff wins the Democratic nomination

15%

Last trade

The chance Jon Ossoff is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (15.5%) and Polymarket (15.2%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Jon Ossoff a 15% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMD-28-JOSS	direct contract			15.50¢	last trade	fresh · 283s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-jon-ossoff-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-885	direct contract			15.15¢	last trade	fresh · 119s old	Contract ↗

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the Democratic nomination

15%

Last trade

The chance Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (13.5%) and Polymarket (16.7%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 15% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMD-28-AOC	direct contract			13.50¢	last trade	fresh · 141s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-653	direct contract			16.65¢	last trade	fresh · 71s old	Contract ↗

Gavin Newsom wins the Democratic nomination

14%

Last trade

The chance Gavin Newsom is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (13.5%) and Polymarket (14.9%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Gavin Newsom a 14% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMD-28-GN	direct contract			13.50¢	last trade	fresh · 117s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-568	direct contract			14.95¢	last trade	fresh · 73s old	Contract ↗

Kamala Harris wins the Democratic nomination

Last trade

The chance Kamala Harris is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (7.4%) and Polymarket (6.6%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Kamala Harris a 7% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMD-28-KH	direct contract			7.45¢	last trade	fresh · 2696s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-641	direct contract			6.55¢	last trade	fresh · 82s old	Contract ↗

Josh Shapiro wins the Democratic nomination

Last trade

The chance Josh Shapiro is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.5%) and Polymarket (5.1%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Josh Shapiro a 5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMD-28-JS	direct contract			4.55¢	last trade	fresh · 203s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-977	direct contract			5.15¢	last trade	fresh · 825s old	Contract ↗

Pete Buttigieg wins the Democratic nomination

Last trade

The chance Pete Buttigieg is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (4.7%) and Polymarket (4.9%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Pete Buttigieg a 5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMD-28-PB	direct contract			4.65¢	last trade	fresh · 867s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-pete-buttigieg-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-687	direct contract			4.85¢	last trade	fresh · 101s old	Contract ↗

Andy Beshear wins the Democratic nomination

Last trade

The chance Andy Beshear is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (5.2%) and Polymarket (3.2%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Andy Beshear a 4% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMD-28-AB	direct contract			5.25¢	last trade	fresh · 1161s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-andy-beshear-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-832	direct contract			3.25¢	last trade	fresh · 820s old	Contract ↗

Mark Kelly wins the Democratic nomination

Last trade

The chance Mark Kelly is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (3.6%) and Polymarket (2.1%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Mark Kelly a 3% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMD-28-MK	direct contract			3.65¢	last trade	fresh · 797s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-mark-kelly-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-479	direct contract			2.05¢	last trade	fresh · 103s old	Contract ↗

James Talarico wins the Democratic nomination

Last trade

The chance James Talarico is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.5%) and Polymarket (2.8%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give James Talarico a 3% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMD-28-JTAL	direct contract			2.50¢	last trade	fresh · 1567s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-james-talarico-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination	direct contract			2.75¢	last trade	fresh · 79s old	Contract ↗

Rahm Emanuel wins the Democratic nomination

Last trade

The chance Rahm Emanuel is the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential nominee.

Equal-weight average of Kalshi (2.8%) and Polymarket (1.6%), last traded prices.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Prediction markets give Rahm Emanuel a 2% chance of winning the Democratic nomination” (average of Kalshi and Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Kalshi	KXPRESNOMD-28-REMA	direct contract			2.75¢	last trade	fresh · 833s old	Contract ↗
Polymarket	will-rahm-emanuel-win-the-2028-democratic-presidential-nomination-299	direct contract			1.55¢	last trade	fresh · 825s old	Contract ↗

JD Vance wins the presidency

20%

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance JD Vance wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives JD Vance a 20% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Polymarket	will-jd-vance-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election	direct contract			20.05¢	last trade	fresh · 105s old	Contract ↗

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the presidency

13%

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez a 13% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Polymarket	will-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election	direct contract			12.75¢	last trade	fresh · 206s old	Contract ↗

Jon Ossoff wins the presidency

10%

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance Jon Ossoff wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Jon Ossoff a 10% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Polymarket	will-jon-ossoff-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election	direct contract			9.75¢	last trade	fresh · 117s old	Contract ↗

Gavin Newsom wins the presidency

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance Gavin Newsom wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Gavin Newsom a 9% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Polymarket	will-gavin-newsom-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election	direct contract			9.45¢	last trade	fresh · 101s old	Contract ↗

Marco Rubio wins the presidency

Last tradeSingle venue

The chance Marco Rubio wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Marco Rubio a 9% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Polymarket	will-marco-rubio-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election	direct contract			8.55¢	last trade	fresh · 111s old	Contract ↗

Kamala Harris wins the presidency

Last tradeSingle venueStale

The chance Kamala Harris wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Kamala Harris a 4% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Polymarket	will-kamala-harris-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election	direct contract			4.25¢	last trade	stale · 9779s old	Contract ↗

Josh Shapiro wins the presidency

Last tradeSingle venueStale

The chance Josh Shapiro wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Josh Shapiro a 3% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Polymarket	will-josh-shapiro-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election	direct contract			2.95¢	last trade	stale · 9779s old	Contract ↗

Pete Buttigieg wins the presidency

Last tradeSingle venueStale

The chance Pete Buttigieg wins the 2028 presidential election.

Polymarket only. Kalshi’s person-level winner market isn’t in our feed yet.

Quote type: Last traded price. Cited as: “Polymarket gives Pete Buttigieg a 3% chance of winning the 2028 presidential election” (Polymarket via DeFi Rate).

Venue	Contract	Role	Bid	Ask	Price	Price type	Quote
Polymarket	will-pete-buttigieg-win-the-2028-us-presidential-election	direct contract			2.75¢	last trade	stale · 9779s old	Contract ↗